.svg)
Steady Visits in a Tough Month
On paper, September 2026 looked like a month for consumers to stay home. Gas prices hit a record for the month, and consumer sentiment sat near historic lows. Yet retail visits grew year over year (YoY), and full-service and fast-casual restaurants posted gains of their own. So how much of that strength came from a favorable calendar – and how much reflects demand that is holding up better than the headlines suggest?
Labor Day Gives Retail a Lift
Visits to essential retail (grocery, superstores, dollar stores, and the like) rose 1.4% YoY in September, while discretionary retail (apparel, home furnishings, home improvement, sporting goods, and other non-essentials) grew 1.8%. Both marked an improvement from August, when essentials grew 0.6% and discretionary visits were flat.
Some of that improvement comes down to the calendar – last year, Labor Day weekend straddled August and September, while this year it fell entirely in September, handing the month two extra prime shopping days. That shift likely gave discretionary retail a bigger lift than essentials, and may help explain why it came out ahead.
Retail Growth Outlasts the Holiday
But a look at the weekly data shows that retail's strength goes beyond the calendar.
When gas prices began surging in March, discretionary visits softened, falling below year-ago levels for five straight weeks beginning in late April as prices peaked at $4.50 per gallon. But as prices eased to $3.78 by early July, retail traffic regained momentum – and the gains held even after gas climbed back above $4. From mid-June through late September, essential retail visits grew YoY every week, while discretionary visits rose in all but one, continuing after Labor Day even as gas topped $4.45.
Fuel stations, meanwhile, had a harder time. Visits were down YoY in 24 of the 25 weeks since mid-April, with Labor Day week the lone exception. Some drivers may be concentrating their fill-ups at lower-priced wholesale club pumps – Costco reported high-single-digit growth in comparable gallons in September – while others may be filling up less often. Either way, the data points to a more deliberate consumer: economizing at the pump, but still showing up at stores.
QSR Lags as Other Dining Segments Grow
Dining also saw pockets of continued strength in September. Fast-casual visits grew 2.2% YoY, extending a growth streak that has lasted all year, while full-service traffic rose 1.0% YoY after falling in August – likely helped by the holiday weekend.
Quick-service restaurant (QSR) visits, meanwhile, fell 2.2% – an improvement from August’s 3.7% drop, but still a seventh consecutive monthly decline. QSR’s more price-sensitive customers may be cutting back on restaurant trips as high gas prices squeeze budgets and dining out gets more expensive relative to eating at home.
Looking Ahead
September got a boost from the calendar, but the weekly data shows that shoppers kept visiting stores even as gas prices hit record levels – a sign of real consumer resilience. With fuel prices starting to ease and the holidays approaching, that resilience could set retail up for a solid start to the holiday shopping season.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
