Steady Hands: Home Improvement Traffic Holds in Q2 2026

A Quarter of Small Margins

Visits to The Home Depot and Lowe's remained close to last year's level in Q2 2026, with overall and same-store visits diverging less than one percentage point from Q2 2025 numbers. While these trends represent a moderation from the stronger performance in Q1 2026, they continue to reflect the longer-term improvement and stabilization of visitation trends observed since Q3 2025.

A Cooler Spring

Inspecting monthly visits data suggests that the ongoing consumer headwinds may be stalling the recovery – though the relatively muted declines suggest that the category's recovery is likely paused rather than reversed. 

Following a solid start to the year, The Home Depot's year-over-year (YoY) visit growth slowed sharply in March 2026, likely reflecting the impact of rising gas prices, which squeezed household budgets and prompted some shoppers to delay larger home improvement purchases. But despite the increased pressure on consumers, traffic still remained relatively close to 2025 levels throughout the analyzed period. 

Lowe's followed a similar arc, opening the year with positive YoY traffic growth that moderated in March. And following an April traffic spike – driven in part by strong traffic during its spring sale and easier comparisons to a softer April 2025 for Lowe's – traffic remained within two percentage points of last year's levels. 

The Projects Still Waiting

This relative YoY stability of Q2 2026 traffic for both The Home Depot and Lowe's may indicate that underlying demand for home improvement projects has proven resilient despite the macroeconomic backdrop. Growth in the second half of 2026 may come from the accumulation of deferred maintenance, or from an easing in prices and rates that finally makes bigger projects feel affordable again. Either could turn this plateau into a climb.

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