.svg)
Retail Wins the Race
Halfway through the summer, brick-and-mortar retail visits continue to outpace dining, though restaurant traffic is beginning to recover.
We analyzed the data to understand what is driving these broader trends and where dining's bright spots may be emerging.
A Gap – But a Narrowing One
Overall retail visits rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in July 2026, while dining visits declined 1.6%. This continues a pattern seen earlier in the year, when the two categories began to diverge as gas prices increased.
Restaurant meals are the classic first cut when budgets tighten – and as consumers tightened their belts, some of those visits likely shifted toward retail through additional food-at-home trips to grocery stores, superstores, and wholesale clubs.
Still, dining's improving trajectory since May suggests that the pressure may be starting to ease as consumers adjust to higher gas prices and summer vacations get underway.
Dining Finds Its Footing Out West; Retail Strength Falters in the East
Regional data also reveals several markets where dining outperformed in July – alongside a handful where retail visits were slightly softer.
Dining's pockets of strength were concentrated in the West, led by California, where visits rose 1.2% YoY, likely supported by the region's lower-than-average urban inflation rate. Although California’s gas prices remain the highest in the nation, they have increased less sharply on a proportional basis this year – while the state’s leading rate of EV adoption may have further blunted the shock. The FIFA World Cup likely added an additional tailwind, with Los Angeles and Bay Area bar and pub visits up more than 15% YoY during the tournament. And Utah and Idaho likely benefited from some of the strongest population growth in the country.
Retail visits, meanwhile, rose throughout most of the country, with just a few Midwestern, Northeastern, and Mid-Atlantic states seeing flat to slightly negative trends – and New York trailing the pack at -0.9% YoY. Higher-than-average June inflation, particularly in the Northeast, coupled with an unusual heat wave during the week of July 4th, may have contributed to the softness.
Fast-Casual and Full-Service Rise YoY
Dining also saw some bright spots at the category level. While QSR visits fell 3.4% YoY in July, fast-casual chains extended their ongoing winning streak and full-service restaurant traffic turned positive.
QSR’s core customers are dining out less than they did a year ago, while fast-casual and full-service concepts are benefiting from a widening perceived-value gap. For now, at least, dining’s recovery appears to be led by consumers at the top of the income spectrum.
Looking Ahead
The retail-dining divide remained intact in July – but with restaurant traffic improving steadily since May and higher-income dining segments already back in positive territory, the gap may keep narrowing in the second half of 2026. Will dining pull even with retail as the summer winds down?
For more retail and dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
A Blockbuster for the Biggest Screen
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey opened on July 17th to a $124.5 million domestic debut – with IMAX 70mm showtimes sold out weeks in advance and resale tickets commanding more than $1,000 in New York. So what does the premium-format craze look like on the ground? We dove into the data to find out.
Premium Screens Pull Ahead
The Odyssey's opening weekend was a boon for the whole category. On July 17th and 18th, visits to movie theaters nationwide ran 22.5% above the spring-summer weekend baseline, making it one of the strongest showings of the year. But IMAX 70mm venues were in a different league entirely, with visits 60.5% above baseline.
The gap likely reflects the format's scarcity. Just 41 theaters worldwide can screen the film in IMAX 70mm, and IMAX's record-breaking $52.0 million global opening suggests that audiences went out of their way to experience the movie as Nolan intended.
The boost also extended to the second weekend, when the wider category settled back to 10.6% above average, while IMAX 70mm venues remained 54.7% elevated. And with AMC reporting that most of its IMAX 70mm showtimes are sold out into September, the visit boost could carry deep into the summer.
While The Odyssey is the year's most dramatic example of the format effect, it isn't the only one. When Project Hail Mary – another IMAX-lensed release – opened on March 20th, weekend visits to 70mm venues outpaced the broader circuit. By contrast, regular theaters carried the day during other major release weekends, including May 29th and 30th, when A24's Backrooms opened to a studio-record $81.4 million while The Mandalorian and Grogu entered its second weekend.
Going the Distance
Audiences also went out of their way for The Odyssey in the most literal sense. IMAX 70mm venues usually attract moviegoers from a wider radius than the average theater – with so few locations nationwide, they function as regional draws rather than neighborhood haunts.
But The Odyssey stretched that reach dramatically. Over the film's first two weekends, the share of IMAX 70mm visitors traveling 10+ miles jumped to 48.4% and 52.0%, respectively, while the broader category ticked up only modestly.
The Bottom Line
The premium-format boost is title-specific – it appears when the event film of the moment is also a format film. But when the two align, the effect is powerful: For a small fleet of theaters, the right release can transform an ordinary weekend into a destination event. With 70mm showtimes selling out into September, will The Odyssey keep those screens packed through the end of summer? If so, the film's run may give exhibitors their strongest argument yet for investing in premium formats.
For more data-driven entertainment insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Segment Isn’t Everything
Full-service restaurants (FSRs) faced a challenging first half of 2026 as consumers became more selective about discretionary spending. Casual dining bore the brunt of the slowdown, with Q2 visits falling 1.0% year over year (YoY), while upscale chains generally held up better on resilient special-occasion demand (+3.0%).
But a look at the Q2 performance of three of the largest publicly traded multi-brand FSR operators – Brinker International, Bloomin' Brands, and Dine Brands – shows that segment alone didn’t determine who outperformed.
So what drove FSR performance in Q2 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
Varied Performance
AI-powered location analytics reveal varied performance across the three operators in Q2 2026. Brinker International’s overall visits rose 3.2% YoY – led by Chili’s – while average visits per location increased 3.3%. Bloomin’ Brands saw overall visits decline 1.7%, but traffic grew at its upscale concepts, and average visits per location across the portfolio edged up 0.4%. Dine Brands, meanwhile, lagged on overall visits as it continued rightsizing its fleet, though average visits per location at IHOP ticked up 0.7% YoY.
Bloomin's Upscale Brands Led the Portfolio
Bloomin' Brands' concepts largely mirrored the broader segment divide. Its upscale banners – Bonefish Grill and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse – generally outperformed its casual concepts, particularly heading into the spring and summer. Though Fleming's saw traffic dip earlier in the year, visits rebounded sharply in May and June, likely benefiting from Mother's Day and Father's Day demand. Given the brand's positioning as a fine-dining destination for celebrations, some discretionary dining occasions earlier in the year may have been deferred until those holidays, amplifying the gains.
Still, casual Outback Steakhouse – Bloomin's largest brand – began to narrow its visit gap in April, offering an encouraging sign that the chain’s ambitious turnaround may be gaining traction. Under CEO Mike Spanos, Bloomin’ is pursuing a four-part strategy centered on improving the dine-in experience, strengthening brand relevance, upgrading restaurants, and rebuilding operating culture, including higher-quality steaks and fewer tables per server. And management has already reported improving guest-sentiment scores.
IHOP Held the Line for Dine Brands
Dine Brands' casual- and family-dining portfolio also largely reflected the broader segment divide. Still, IHOP showed relative resilience, with same-store visits remaining stable throughout most of the analyzed period and even ticking up 0.5% YoY in May.
Dine has credited its value push – including the launch of its $6 Everyday Value Menu in September 2025 – as a key driver of IHOP’s outperformance relative to industry benchmarks in early 2026. And a Mother’s Day boost may also have contributed to May’s strength.
Applebee's, meanwhile, remained in the red throughout H1 2026, though the underlying story may be somewhat stronger than the traffic numbers suggest. The chain is now lapping the beginning of its own 2025 turnaround, when a refreshed 2 for $25 platform helped deliver its first traffic growth in two years, making for a difficult YoY comparison. Applebee's is now focused on sustaining that turnaround through ongoing menu innovation, continued investment in its Lookin' Good remodel program, and the expansion of its dual-branded Applebee's-IHOP format.
Why Did Brinker Pull Ahead?
Brinker International, meanwhile, deviated from the category split. Despite upscale dining's stronger category showing, it was the company's casual-dining flagship, Chili's, that drove the outperformance.
Chili's posted YoY visit growth in nearly every month of H1 2026, dipping only slightly in March. The chain’s everyday-value 3 For Me platform, anchored at $10.99, keeps pulling in cost-conscious diners, while a steady cadence of fast-food-inspired menu launches gives them fresh reasons to come back. Following the Big QP and Big Smasher burgers, the Big Crispy chicken sandwich, introduced in April 2026, was soon selling 161% more sandwiches than before launch. And although the pace of growth has moderated amid tougher year-over-year comparisons, Chili’s has continued to post positive YoY visit growth and outrun the broader casual dining segment.
Maggiano's, by contrast, moved in the opposite direction. To stabilize the brand, the company launched its "Back to Maggiano's" strategy – a broad effort spanning food, service, and atmosphere. And the most visible initiative borrows a page from the Chili's playbook, emphasizing abundance through roughly 20% larger pasta portions and an expanded family-style menu at no additional cost.
What Separated the Winners?
So was Q2 a story about segment or about brand execution? Upscale dining outperformed casual overall, but brand-level results show that positioning alone was not enough. Execution and differentiation ultimately determined which concepts outperformed their peers.
Will Chili's sustain its momentum? And will IHOP return to traffic growth in H2?
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Weathering the Storm
Rising gas prices and weakening consumer confidence have weighed on dining traffic in recent months. But Restaurant Brands International (RBI) – the parent company of Burger King, Popeyes, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs – appears to be navigating the pressure better than most. We dove into the data to explore how investments in brand turnaround, value, and product innovation have helped RBI outperform even as quick-service restaurant (QSR) traffic softened.
Value and Brand Investments Buffer Against Industry Declines
Q2 2026 was a challenging quarter for QSRs, with overall category visits falling 3.0% year over year (YoY) and average visits per location declining 2.7%. Against that backdrop, RBI held up remarkably well – overall visits to its four brands slipped just 0.5% YoY, while average visits per location were essentially flat compared with Q2 2025.
Burger King, building on the momentum of its "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround strategy, drove much of that resilience. Fresh off a 5.8% U.S. same-store sales gain in Q1, the chain posted 1.7% YoY growth in average visits per location in Q2, while overall visits also edged higher despite continued fleet optimization.
Firehouse Subs – RBI's smallest but fastest-growing brand by unit count and its only fast-casual concept – also outperformed. Despite continuing to expand its footprint, the chain posted 1.7% YoY growth in average visits per location, comfortably ahead of the broader fast-casual category (+0.4%).
Burger King and Firehouse Subs Sustain Visits Amid Rising Gas Prices
Monthly data shows that conditions became more challenging as the quarter progressed. Even so, Burger King and Firehouse Subs largely maintained their momentum.
Burger King kept same-store visits positive from February through May before slipping only marginally into negative territory in June (-0.2%). The performance reflects a combination of menu innovation and value-focused promotions: The new elevated Whopper generated the brand's highest Whopper average unit volumes in more than three years, while $5 Duos and $7 Trios helped attract budget-conscious diners. Pop-culture partnerships also kept the brand top of mind.
Firehouse Subs, meanwhile, saw visits peak in May following the launch of its Steak & Cheese Melts. The rollout was amplified by a playful one-day giveaway offering a free sub to anyone named Mike (or Michelle) – a tongue-in-cheek nod to rival Jersey Mike's that generated significant attention.
Early Signs of a Popeyes Recovery?
Popeyes spent much of the first half of the year struggling, with visits declining YoY nearly every month and May marking the steepest drop. But June brought signs of stabilization, with visits returning to flat as the chain intensified its value strategy.
The return of the $6 Big Box and $20 Family Meal, combined with the previously launched $5 Faves platform and newly permanent $3.99 Chicken Wraps, appears to have resonated with customers. While it remains early, Popeyes’ June rebound offers an encouraging early signal for the second-half recovery outlined by management, as the brand refocuses on value and its core menu.
Tim Hortons' relatively small U.S. footprint continued to post visit declines throughout the first half. However, the brand’s center of gravity remains in Canada, where it has delivered 20 consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales.
The Bottom Line
RBI enters the second half of 2026 with a clear traffic advantage over the broader QSR industry. The question now is whether it can sustain that edge. Can Burger King continue to outperform despite a more challenging consumer environment? Will Firehouse Subs maintain its strong same-store traffic as it continues expanding? And does Popeyes' June stabilization mark the start of a sustained turnaround, or merely a temporary lift from renewed promotions?
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Entering H2 With an Edge
As if 2026 hadn't thrown enough challenges at QSRs, July's lettuce recall put Taco Bell in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. But a look at Yum! Brands' visit performance since the beginning of the year shows that the company has held a clear advantage over the broader quick-service restaurant category – and despite this curveball, it is heading into H2 on solid footing.
Yum! Held Its Ground While the Category Pulled Back
Rising gas prices and a sustained pullback among lower-income diners weighed on fast-food traffic this spring, sending overall QSR visits down 3.0% year over year (YoY) in Q2 and average visits per location down 2.7%. Yum! held up considerably better, with overall visits slipping just 0.5% and average visits per location rising 1.0%.
That relative resilience was broad-based, with all three of Yum's QSR brands outperforming the category on average visits per location. Most intriguingly, Pizza Hut – the brand Yum! agreed in June to sell for $2.7 billion – posted the portfolio’s strongest per-location growth, at 4.4% YoY. The Habit Burger & Grill also stood out, with overall visits rising 4.3% – well ahead of the fast-casual category’s 1.7% gain.
Taco Bell's Growth Streak Cooled as the Year Progressed
Taco Bell entered Q2 with strong momentum, having posted 8% same-store sales growth in Q1 – its eighth consecutive quarter of outperforming the QSR industry.
Visit growth moderated as the year progressed, turning modestly negative in May and June as Taco Bell lapped a strong 2025 and the broader QSR slowdown deepened. Even so, quarterly traffic came in essentially flat – roughly three percentage points ahead of the wider category – likely buoyed by the chain’s Luxe Value Menu and Live Más product innovation blitz. Heading into H2, the question is whether that combination of value and innovation can reaccelerate traffic – and how the July recall, which began just after the quarter ended, will weigh on visits.
Pizza Hut Rightsizing Right
After a year of closing underperforming locations, Pizza Hut emerged as Yum’s same-store traffic leader in Q2, posting low-single-digit YoY visit growth throughout the quarter. Demand transfer from shuttered stores likely helped, but so did a nostalgia-driven value push, including the Tom Brady “Pizza Before the Hut” campaign and the $10 return of the Big New Yorker. With July’s Throwback Value Menu extending that strategy, LongRange Capital appears set to acquire a leaner, more productive business.
KFC Kept Its Comeback Simmering
KFC also continued its rightsizing efforts, but the payoff at remaining locations was more muted. Same-store visits trended slightly negative in April, May, and June, while total visits fell 3.5% YoY – suggesting that some demand from shuttered stores may have shifted to competitors in the crowded chicken category.
Still, the chain's highly successful "Kentucky Fried Comeback" remained in full swing in Q2, with initiatives such as tiered Box Feast value bundles and a Supergirl movie tie-in helping keep same-store traffic close to year-ago levels.
The Habit Burger & Grill Led Fast Casual
Fast-casual chain The Habit Burger & Grill posted Yum’s strongest overall visit growth in Q2, though growth slowed as the year progressed. In addition to mounting macroeconomic headwinds, Habit’s Southern California-heavy footprint faced increasingly difficult comparisons as the disruption from the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires faded from the prior-year baseline.
Even so, overall traffic remained positive throughout Q2, while same-store visits either grew or stayed close to flat – suggesting the chain is expanding without materially weakening demand at existing locations.
Can Yum! Sustain Its Traffic Advantage?
Yum! Brands closed the first half of 2026 ahead of its respective segments on per-location traffic, even as Taco Bell – the primary engine of its recent outperformance – lost momentum. The question now is whether the portfolio can maintain its advantage in H2. Can Taco Bell reaccelerate traffic while protecting profitability? Will Pizza Hut sustain its stronger per-location performance through the ownership transition? And can KFC turn its promotional momentum into a more durable traffic recovery?
Follow placer.ai/anchor to find out.
The Grounds for Growth
Coffee shops remain one of dining’s most dependable bright spots, as consumers continue to splurge on affordable indulgences even while cutting back on pricier outings. In H1 2026, coffee visits were up 4.1% year over year (YoY), even as overall dining traffic fell 0.4%. But in some metros, the caffeine rush was running much stronger.
This month's Placer 5 highlights the nation’s top five major coffee markets – metro areas that logged upwards of 10 million coffee shop visits in H1 2026, where coffee shops saw the most YoY visit growth. Each one is thriving for its own reasons, and together they show that there are many ways to win at coffee.
A Different Roast in Every Metro
For many of these metros, coffee visit growth was driven at least in part by fleet expansion. But in all five markets, average visits per coffee shop also rose YoY, suggesting that existing venues are also drawing bigger crowds.
Still, each metro brews its own story.
In inland California’s Riverside and Bakersfield, the surges were powered primarily by Starbucks and Dutch Bros, with Bakersfield – the only analyzed metro without an increase in major coffee chain locations in H1 – seeing traffic at existing coffee shops rise significantly even as the overall store count edged down.
In Indianapolis and Kansas City, meanwhile, coffee visits were propelled in part by the drive-thru coffee wave sweeping the middle of the country – a format with so much momentum that Technomic’s 2026 America’s Favorite Chains ranking featured three drive-thru coffee brands in its top 10 for the first time ever. Alongside new Dutch Bros locations, fast-growing 7 Brew also expanded its footprint in both metros. Their car-friendly layouts make Indianapolis and Kansas City natural magnets for the format – and with per-location visits still climbing, the new stands appear to be filling up as fast as they open.
Orlando, for its part, appears to be riding a more general demand wave. The metro's population grew 1.29% between July 2024 and July 2025 – well ahead of the 0.52% national average – while record tourist visits kept vacation mornings busy. More residents and more visitors translate directly into more lattes – and several major chains added stores to keep pace.
However You Take It
Tourism and population growth in Orlando, a drive-thru boom in the heartland, and steady strength in inland California – the standout coffee metros of 2026 each found their own path to growth. And it's worth noting that all five sit far from Stars Hollow of Gilmore Girls’ fame: the Northeast may claim the diner-counter coffee mystique, but the caffeine craze is a truly national affair.
The result is a coffee category that remains highly adaptable. Whether fueled by convenience, expansion, tourism, or loyal daily routines, America's coffee shop segment continues to find new ways to keep visits percolating.
