Lila Margalit

May 2026 brought a fresh round of return-to-office (RTO) pressure – PNC Financial's five-day mandate took effect at the start of the month, while EY told its U.S. tax teams to plan for more in-person time this summer. Both join a growing list of employers tightening face-time policies. At the same time, gas prices climbed to an average of $4.61 in May, making the commute more expensive for employees who drive to work. 

How did these competing forces play out on the ground? Did the office recovery continue, or was May the first month this year to show signs of slowing down? We dove into the data to find out. 

Fewer Workdays, Slower Upward Trend

At first glance, May's results suggest a slowdown. Total visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Index were 38.6% below May 2019 levels and 1.2% below May 2025.

But the apparent weakness is largely explained by the calendar. May 2026 included only 20 working days, compared to 21 in May 2025 and 22 in May 2019. When adjusting for business days, visits were actually 3.7% higher than last year and just 32.4% below the 2019 baseline – compared to 34.9% for May 2025. In other words, May 2026 was the busiest May for per-working-day office attendance since the pandemic, extending the streak in which every month so far this year has set a post-pandemic high for its respective calendar month.

Still, even when normalized, the pace of YoY growth was modest, suggesting that higher commuting costs may be tempering some of the gains from ongoing return-to-office initiatives.

San Francisco Leads the YoY Pack 

The same calendar effect carried across the major markets, where most cities showed year-over-year declines on raw visits that turned positive once working days were accounted for. San Francisco led the year-over-year (YoY) field, with per-working-day visits up 8.2% – tracking the city's AI-driven leasing recovery. With its strongest leasing quarter this year since 2014, declining office availability, and robust net absorption, the city appears increasingly well-positioned to sustain its momentum.

Los Angeles followed at +6.5% YoY per working day, with Dallas, Chicago, Miami, New York, and Boston all in positive territory. Only three markets stayed slightly negative: Denver, down 1.4% from a year ago, Houston, down 0.6%, and Washington, D.C., essentially flat at -0.1%. 

Denver's continued softness likely reflects the same dynamics noted last month – a particularly remote-friendly labor market and record-high downtown vacancy. Still, improving net absorption and gradually strengthening demand for Class A office space may portend stronger visitation trends in the months ahead. Houston's slight decline, meanwhile, may partly stem from contraction in its dominant energy sector, where major employers such as Chevron have reduced local headcount.

Miami Still Out Front, Denver Last

On the longer view versus 2019, the RTO rankings held their usual shape. Miami remained the clear leader, sitting 11.0% below its pre-pandemic baseline on a per-working-day basis, with New York next at 18.3% below. Denver finished last once more, down 48.4% from 2019. And San Francisco held onto third-to-last position, showing how far it has come from its former status as the nation's weakest-performing office market.

Still Moving in the Right Direction

The pace of office recovery moderated in May, but the calendar accounted for most of the apparent weakness. On a per-working-day basis, office attendance continued to rise, with gains recorded across most major markets.

Whether lower gas prices or additional RTO mandates will reignite a faster recovery later in the year remains to be seen. For now, however, the data suggests that office utilization continues to inch upward, even as the pace of improvement becomes more gradual.

For more data-driven office recovery analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Just a few months after Allbirds announced it was pivoting to AI, another DTC darling has taken an unexpected turn. Everlane – the upscale, "radical transparency" sustainability brand – has just been bought by ultra-low-price fast-fashion giant Shein for a reported $100 million.

Much of the coverage has framed the deal as Shein buying a sustainability halo to shore up its credibility in the American market. But location analytics point to a more tangible, often overlooked, asset – direct access, through Everlane's brick-and-mortar footprint, to the high-income, urban consumers Shein has long coveted.

Everlane Pulls in Wealthier Shoppers Than Its Already Affluent Neighborhoods

Everlane’s stores are concentrated in affluent neighborhoods. Over the past twelve months, the brand’s potential market posted a median household income (HHI) of $127.7K – 46.3% above the nationwide baseline and a full $39.5K higher than the broader traditional apparel segment.

But even within these wealthy trade areas, Everlane disproportionately attracts the highest-income consumers. During the analyzed period, its captured market registered a median HHI of $142.3K – 11.5% above the brand’s already-affluent trade area. Other traditional apparel chains, by contrast, tend to attract audiences that more closely mirror the demographics of their surrounding markets.

For Shein, the striking gap between Everlane’s captured and potential markets is a signal of the brand’s durable equity: Despite its recent struggles, Everlane still demonstrates a powerful ability to attract highly desirable consumers beyond what would be expected from its physical footprint alone.

Everlane's Audience Lines Up With Shein's Target Demographic

Everlane's audience also lines up neatly with the hip, urban demographic Shein has been trying to reach. "Educated Urbanites" – young, well-educated singles in dense urban areas working relatively high-paying jobs – account for a remarkable 40.8% of Everlane's captured market, against just 3.6% nationwide. The brand also over-indexes on "Ultra Wealthy Families," at 18.4% of its captured audience versus a traditional apparel benchmark of 8.7%.

That profile mirrors the consumer Shein has pursued through temporary pop-ups – including in luxury malls – across major U.S. cities. 

More Than a Sustainability Play

The sustainability narrative may dominate the headlines, but the strategic logic behind Shein’s Everlane acquisition also runs through the customer base itself.

For Shein, Everlane represents a shortcut into a consumer segment it has sought to penetrate more effectively: affluent, urban, brand-conscious shoppers who still value trend relevance. And for Everlane, that same demographic strength helped transform a distressed sale into a strategic acquisition target – while giving Shein a strong incentive to preserve the brand’s positioning going forward.

For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Dollar stores often benefit from consumer pullbacks – and with soaring gas prices and plummeting consumer sentiment, spring 2026 had all the ingredients for a category-wide boost. 

But location analytics reveal a more nuanced picture, with Dollar General and Dollar Tree on notably different trajectories. We dove into the data to explore some of the factors behind the gap and what they reveal about today’s value-driven shopper. 

Dollar General Pulls Ahead as Consumers Double Down on Essentials

Same-store visit data shows Dollar General outpacing Dollar Tree throughout the first four months of 2026, with the gap between the two chains widening as the year progressed. By March, Dollar Tree visits had slipped into negative territory (-0.6% YoY), with declines reaching -3.5% in April. Dollar General, meanwhile, maintained low-single-digit growth of 1.9% and 2.3% in March and April, respectively. 

The divergence mirrors each chain’s recent sales drivers. Last quarter, Dollar General saw comparable sales growth driven primarily by increased traffic, while Dollar Tree posted ticket-driven gains – supported by the discretionary categories it has expanded through its Multi-Price 3.0 strategy. As consumer hesitancy deepened through the spring, that shift likely left Dollar Tree's traffic more vulnerable to pullback. Still, given the chain’s continued expansion and a difficult year-over-year comparison, a same-store visit dip of just a few percentage points suggests that underlying demand remains resilient.

Proximity Pays Off When Gas Gets Expensive

Dollar General's hyper-local footprint has also long been a structural strength – one that likely became even more valuable in the spring 2026 environment. Gas prices climbed sharply in March, pushing the national average above $4 per gallon by early April for the first time in four years. With 12.4% of Dollar General visits originating from within half a mile of a store, compared to 7.3% for Dollar Tree, the chain was particularly well positioned to capture quick, low-drive-distance trips at a time when consumers were watching their fuel budgets.

Dollar Tree Well Positioned Among Younger Consumers and Families With Children

Still, temporary headwinds aside, Dollar Tree’s stronger draw among families with children and the coveted Gen Z cohort could become a meaningful advantage as consumer conditions improve.

Dollar Tree and Dollar General have similar exposure to younger consumers and households with children across their potential trade areas, but Dollar Tree appears to do a better job converting that potential audience into actual visits. Its captured market – reflecting the parts of its trade area actually generating the most visits –  is on par with or slightly over-indexes for both groups compared to its potential market, while Dollar General under-indexes. 

That gap carries strategic implications for both chains. Dollar Tree’s expanded offerings in seasonal décor, party supplies, toys, and home goods may be resonating with these audiences. And though this discretionary tilt may leave traffic more exposed when budgets tighten, it also positions Dollar Tree well to capture occasion-driven and family-oriented spending as spending rebounds.

For Dollar General, meanwhile, under-indexing with those same groups highlights a longer-term opportunity to broaden its appeal among younger consumers – and drive incremental growth in the process.

The View From the Value Aisle

The spring slowdown underscores that value retail is not immune to broader consumer pressure – and that not all dollar chains are exposed to that pressure in the same way. Dollar General's dense, hyper-local footprint gives it an edge when shoppers are watching basket size and driving costs. Dollar Tree's discretionary leaning, meanwhile, makes it more vulnerable in the near term – but its stronger pull among younger consumers and families suggests it is building relevance with audiences that could matter more in the next spending cycle.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.

Five Below has thrived in recent years, riding strong demand for affordable splurges. But how did the chain hold up in early 2026, with rising gas prices and sinking consumer sentiment squeezing discretionary spending?

A Q1 Visit Surge

Five Below has continued expanding its footprint over the past year, entering the Pacific Northwest for the first time and ending January 2026 with 1,921 stores across 46 states – a net increase of 150 stores compared to early 2025. 

This growth helped drive a 25.9% YoY jump in chainwide visits in Q1 2026. But same-store visits also sustained double-digit growth throughout the quarter and into April – showing that Five Below is meaningfully growing its audience at existing locations even as it opens new ones at a rapid clip. That’s a rare combination at a moment when much of retail is grappling with consumer pullback.  

Five Below Finds a Broader Audience

Five Below's same-store momentum appears closely tied to its revamped merchandising strategy. Since taking the helm in December 2024, CEO Winnie Park has integrated the company’s “Five Beyond” items – priced at $7, $10, $15, and above – throughout the main store floor. Park  has also pushed sharper, more trend-focused merchandising and a marketing approach built around social discovery and creator-led engagement.

And these steps appear to be attracting higher-earning shoppers. Captured market data shows that the median household income of Five Below’s visitor base rose from $78.5K in 2025 to $80.3K in 2026 – a meaningful uptick after several years of marginal declines. 

To be sure, a similar push into higher-price discretionary categories appears to have weighed on some other discount retailers, such as Dollar Tree, this spring. But Five Below has always been a discretionary-first destination – and unlike Dollar Tree, whose shoppers can shift more of their trips to Dollar General as they prioritize basics, Five Below's affordable-splurge appeal isn't easily replicated elsewhere in the value aisle.

Bargains Closer to Home

Five Below's audience is also more distinctly local than other discretionary retail chains – an advantage as rising gas prices push consumers to rethink longer drives. Though not as hyper-local as traditional dollar stores, Five Below still pulls disproportionately from nearby neighborhoods: in early 2026, 53.8% of visits came from within five miles, compared with 47.9% for discretionary chains more broadly. That local footprint, paired with attainable price points, makes Five Below a natural choice for consumers eager to splurge on something fun even as they grow more selective about discretionary trips.

Firing on All Cylinders

Five Below's Q1 2026 performance reflects a chain firing on multiple cylinders – expanding its footprint, lifting traffic at existing stores, broadening its demographic reach, and benefiting from a convenient presence as gas prices weigh on longer trips. In an environment marked by growing consumer caution, that breadth of momentum positions Five Below to keep outperforming through the rest of 2026.

For more data-driven retail insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.

The first four months of 2026 have been challenging for department stores, as consumer caution and rising gas prices weigh on discretionary spending. But visit data reveals a clear divide between chains gaining traction and those continuing to lose ground – offering a window into what’s working in today’s environment.

Von Maur Sets the Pace

Looking at quarterly performance, Midwestern chain Von Maur stood apart from the field in Q1 2026, posting an 8.7% increase in overall visits and a 5.9% gain in average visits per location – the strongest performance in the segment on both measures.

Von Maur’s appeal can be attributed in part to a tightly controlled model that prioritizes service, brand curation, and pricing consistency over scale and promotions. And as a regional favorite in the Midwest, the brand benefits from a well-established customer base.

Other players with similar positioning also showed relative strength in Q1. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regional favorite Boscov’s outperformed several larger national chains, while Nordstrom saw average visits per location increase 1.6% year over year – suggesting continued traction for curation-led formats. Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also held steady, reinforcing the resilience of higher-end department stores even as Saks navigates bankruptcy proceedings.

March Misses, April Recovers

Still, monthly data highlights just how exposed the department store segment is to discretionary, time-rich shopping trips, which tend to concentrate on weekends – and which consumers may be pulling back on in 2026. 

In Q1 2026, Saturdays accounted for more than a quarter (25.4%) of department store visits, well above both the 17.4% average for non-discretionary brick-and-mortar retailers and the 21.6% average for discretionary chains. As a result, March 2026 – which had one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – saw visits soften across the board.

April, however, painted a more encouraging picture. With the calendar normalized, several chains returned to flat or positive year-over-year same-store visit trends. Von Maur led once again with an 8.5% increase, while Nordstrom (+0.9%) and Bloomingdale’s (+1.7%) also posted gains. Macy’s, as it advances its Bold New Chapter strategy, saw its year-over-year visit gap narrow to 2.4% in April. As the chain continues to close underperforming locations and invest in its Reimagine 125 cohort, performance may improve further in the months ahead.

Differentiation Drives Demand

Department store performance in Q1 2026 reflected today’s increasingly bifurcated landscape, where premium, experience-driven retailers continue to draw shoppers even amid broader caution, while mid-market chains remain more exposed to macro pressure. Even in a constrained environment, consumers are still willing to show up for brands that offer a clear, compelling experience – but that bar is rising, making it harder for less differentiated players to keep up.

For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.

Nearly Twice the Traffic of Department Stores

Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.

Ross Dress for Less: The Off-Price for the Off-Price

While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance. 

Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores. 

Marmaxx Q1 Performance Reveals Structural Strength 

At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.

Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.

Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.

Burlington: Expansion Fuels Growth

Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY. 

The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers. 

Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.

A Rising Tide for Value Retail

When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.