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Holiday Hopes and Headwinds
With October sales events already underway, the 2026 holiday shopping season is off and running – and forecasts point to a substantial increase in retail sales over last year. But consumers are also entering the season with plenty on their minds, as record-high diesel costs and other headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment.
To see how that mix of optimism and economic pressure could shape the season, we dove into past holiday trends and recent shopping patterns. Here are our predictions – and what they could mean for retailers’ holiday strategies.
1. An Early Start for Big-Ticket Shopping
Early holiday deals will likely continue to play an outsized role this year, as shoppers look to lock in savings before prices climb. October sales at Amazon, Target, and Walmart are already giving consumers opportunities to get a head start – and with five Saturdays on this October’s calendar, retailers that put compelling offers out early may be well positioned to capture that demand.
That opportunity looks especially promising for retailers selling big-ticket items. Between 2019 and 2025, electronics and home furnishings chains saw the share of October-December visits occurring before Thanksgiving week rise by 4.0 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively. For these categories, bringing strong promotions forward could help capture shoppers who are making their biggest holiday purchases earlier in the season.
2. Holiday Peaks Still Pack a Punch
Still, the traditional holiday peaks remain the season's biggest draws – though their relative importance varies by category. Once again, bigger-ticket purchases skew earlier: In 2025, electronics stores saw an even bigger visit lift during Black Friday week than in the week before Christmas, while home furnishings chains saw nearly as large a lift. Hobbies, gifts & crafts chains also saw a strong Black Friday boost, likely bolstered by shoppers stocking up on holiday décor for seasonal projects.
But for many retailers selling smaller-ticket items, as well as value-oriented chains, the balance tilts much more heavily toward pre-Christmas shopping – suggesting shoppers hold out for deals as they cross the final gifts off their lists.
3. Small Indulgences Set to Shine
And it’s those smaller-ticket, value-oriented items that could claim a bigger place under the tree this year. With many lower- and middle-income households still feeling stretched, shoppers appear to be making room for smaller indulgences while holding back on bigger splurges.
Between July and September, bookstores saw the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of any category we tracked, followed by off-price apparel, and hobbies, gifts & crafts. Visits to traditional apparel brands, department stores, and home furnishings chains, meanwhile, all came in below last year, while electronics stores saw just a 0.4% uptick.
Retailers can tap into that demand by giving affordable, giftable items greater visibility in holiday displays and campaigns – helping shoppers find something special that doesn’t break the bank.
4. Malls Offer More Than Gift Shopping
Malls also appear poised for a strong season, with recent visit patterns suggesting that their investments in restaurants, entertainment, and events are paying off. Indoor malls outpaced discretionary retail chains in visit growth this summer, while mall visitors also stayed longer. Dwell time at discretionary retail chains, meanwhile, remained roughly flat.
That combination points to an opportunity to build holiday plans around more than gift shopping. Seasonal events, dining, and entertainment can give shoppers additional reasons to visit – and stay. And holiday campaigns that highlight what visitors can do alongside what they can buy may be especially well positioned to draw a crowd.
A Season to Watch Week by Week
Economic uncertainty and the approaching midterm elections could make for an uneven holiday season as shoppers respond to headlines and weigh their spending priorities. Still, recent visit patterns offer retailers some useful clues about what may bring customers through the door.
Early deals, last-minute gifts, and affordable indulgences are all likely to bring shoppers out this season – while malls have an opportunity to make shopping part of a broader holiday experience.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
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