Ephraim Fruchter

A Regional Gap Beneath a Steady Quarter 

Foot traffic to home improvement rose slightly year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2026 (+0.9%) while staying near-flat at the category’s two largest players. But the regional data tells a more complicated story, with the gains in overall visits clustered in the Northeast and Midwest, while many Southwestern states saw declines. 

What is behind the divide? 

Movers and Buyers Don’t Explain the Gap

Population movement is an obvious suspect: An influx of new residents settling into their homes could lift demand for home improvement. But the pandemic-era domestic migration wave has ebbed – and the geography doesn’t line up. The Northeast, for example, has continued losing residents to domestic migration even as home improvement traffic has strengthened.

Renovations after a home purchase are another candidate. The first post-sale year brings roughly double the spending on alterations and repairs of owners who stay put.  But sales trends do not map cleanly onto home improvement traffic. As reported by the NAR, home sales in the South, West, and Midwest climbed YoY in Q2 2026 while Northeast sales dropped. 

Trips Come Before the Sale

What appears to track more closely with home improvement traffic is listing activity. The standard advice to sellers is to skip the kitchen and focus on affordable cosmetic upgrades like paint, patched drywall, and curb appeal, since major remodeling projects rarely earn back their cost at sale. And homeowners tackling these smaller projects may generate multiple trips to home improvement stores – whether or not the home ultimately sells.

State-level data lends some support to this connection. According to Realtor.com, all nine Northeastern states – each of which saw home improvement traffic rise YoY in Q2 2026 – also registered an increase in new listings over the same period. In the Southwest, meanwhile, nearly every state that lost visits also lost listings.

And the pattern becomes even clearer at the metro level. Across the nation’s 30 most populous metro areas, changes in new listings in Q2 2026 generally tracked changes in home improvement traffic: Northeastern metros like New York, Boston, and Philadelphia grew on new listings and visits while cities in the South and West like Los Angeles, Houston, and Austin declined on both measures.  

Listings on Watch

Listings are only one input among many, and the fit is not uniform across states and cities. But as the home improvement sector continues to navigate choppy waters,  one key signal to watch may be how many homes go up for sale. 

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The Store, Reconsidered

The last few years have seen Best Buy extract more value from a shrinking store base – increasing ad revenue, launching an online third-party marketplace, and improving profit margins. Now the company is making its stores a pillar of its next phase of growth, adding locations for the first time in more than a decade while reimagining the space inside existing ones.

All of this comes as competition from online retailers intensifies and a memory-chip price surge pushes up the cost of the chain’s best-selling categories. We dove into the traffic data, and it suggests the renewed focus on stores is beginning to translate into visits. 

Best Buy's First Positive Visit Quarter in at Least Four Years

Visits to Best Buy rose 2.2% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2026, representing a notable change in direction. While visits have regularly improved since the start of 2024, this quarter is the first time overall traffic growth has been positive since at least 2022.

The shift comes as Best Buy invests in elevating the brick-and-mortar experience, from IKEA shop-in-shops and in-store Meta Labs, to exclusive national distribution of the next generation RGB LED TVs. 

Nationwide Growth, with Few Exceptions

Regional data indicates that Best Buy’s Q2 gains were broad-based: 43 states saw visit growth, including every state with 20 or more locations. 

Visits fell in just a handful of states, and the only states with more than a 1.2% drop – Wyoming (-12.9%), Vermont (-4.9%), and Montana (-3.2%) – have just six locations between them. By contrast, California, Texas, and Florida – Best Buy’s three largest state markets – all grew within a point of the national figure. Growth spread this evenly is evidence that Best Buy’s efforts have found widespread traction rather than reflecting the local conditions in a handful of states or a specific region. 

Three Months Up, One Explainable Down

Monthly growth was also largely consistent during the analyzed period, holding positive through most of the quarter and into the summer. Only June saw a slight YoY visit dip, due at least in part to a difficult YoY comparison with last year’s June release of the popular Nintendo Switch 2. Though Best Buy’s late-June 2026 “Tech-Fest” sales boosted visits in the back half of the month, it couldn’t entirely match the power of last year’s “Switch Effect.” 

Sixty Years In and Climbing Again? 

Best Buy enters the second half of its 60th year with visits growing and the high-volume holiday season on the horizon. One swallow does not make a spring – and time will tell if the turnaround can sustain its momentum. But for now at least, the chain is reaching more shoppers and giving them more reasons to stop by. 

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The headwinds facing the department store industry have weighed on Kohl’s and Macy’s, pushing two of the category’s biggest players to sharpen their positioning in a retail environment that increasingly rewards differentiation. In Q2 2026, both retailers saw traffic improve as they leaned into their distinct positionings – Kohl’s as a local, value-focused stop for everyday errands, and Macy’s as a destination retailer. 

Kohl's Turns the Corner on Traffic

Quarterly visits to Kohl’s dipped just 1.4% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2026, a significant improvement from Q1, when visits declined 7.7% YoY. 

And traffic continued to improve into the summer. Kohl’s posted back-to-back same-store visit growth in June and July – its first streak of monthly gains in roughly two years. And with first-quarter comparable sales reaching their strongest level since 2022, even while remaining slightly negative, the chain could be poised for sunnier days if visits maintain their early-summer trajectory.

Macy's Traffic Shows Signs of Stabilizing

Macy's is also seeing encouraging signs of traffic stabilization. In Q2 2026, the chain's YoY overall visit gap narrowed to just 3.6%, improving meaningfully from Q1 – a significant achievement for a chain that has been steadily closing stores.

On a monthly basis, same-store visits slightly outpaced overall visits, suggesting that traffic declines are easing at established locations as Macy's continues to streamline and upgrade its fleet – closing underperforming stores while expanding its Reimagine program. And by July, same-store visits were just 0.4% below year-ago levels.

For a chain that has already shown it can grow sales per visit, stabilizing traffic represents an important foundation upon which to build further. 

Different Shopping Missions, Different Strategies

Each chain is recovering by leaning into a different shopping mission. Kohl’s is reinforcing its role as a value-oriented spot for routine shopping, while Macy’s is concentrating investment around a smaller fleet of destination stores. And the behavioral data suggests those strategies are well matched to each brand’s distinct positioning.

As part of its turnaround strategy, Kohl’s has shifted decisively into the value lane, expanding the brand eligibility of coupons, rolling out a $10 or less ‘Deal Bar’, and spotlighting ‘By Kohl’s,’ its family of proprietary labels. The strategy appears well suited for its existing audience: More than three-quarters of Kohl’s stores sit in strip centers, and in Q2 2026, 56.3% of visits came from within five miles, versus 35.9% for Macy's and 42.3% for the category. Kohl's also led on repeat and weekday visits, reinforcing its errand-style role. 

Macy's chosen path toward rehabilitation, meanwhile, reflects its positioning as a destination retailer. In Q2 2026, 64.1% of visits to Macy’s came from more than five miles away, with a higher share of weekend shoppers than the category average and lower visit frequency. That makes consolidation less disruptive for customers already traveling farther. Macy's is instead focused on making each trip count – reimagining its stores, refreshing its assortment with more fashion-forward private brands, and leaning into occasion-driven experiences like its year-long "Celebrations Start at Macy's" platform.

Holidays on the Horizon

Kohl’s and Macy’s both exited Q2 with improving visit momentum. And with back-to-school season underway and the holidays on the horizon, the second half of 2026 will test whether these gains can hold as each leans into its unique strengths.

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Off-Price Still on a Roll

Off-price apparel has spent the past four years gaining traffic share from department stores as shoppers have cut back on discretionary spending and looked for more ways to stretch their dollars.

In the first half of 2026, that growth became increasingly concentrated at the value end of the segment, with Ross leading the way.

Ross Leads the Pack

Off-price apparel remained on solid footing in Q2 2026, with Ross leading the segment. Visits to Ross Dress for Less rose 16.4% year over year (YoY), while dd’s DISCOUNTS grew 8.4%. TJX’s T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, meanwhile, saw visits hover around last year’s levels – significantly outperforming traditional apparel, which declined 3.5% YoY.

Ross’s Deep Value Model Drives Double Digit Growth

Ross’s position at the deepest-discount end of the off-price segment has served it well as inflation and trade uncertainty have kept pressure on household budgets. And because neither Ross Dress for Less nor dd’s DISCOUNTS operates a digital storefront, all shopping activity at the two chains takes place offline.

Comparable-store sales at Ross climbed 17% in the company’s most recent quarter, significantly exceeding guidance. And that momentum has not only held into the summer, but strengthened, with YoY visits accelerating at both Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS in June and July.

TJX Outperforms Traditional Apparel

Meanwhile, visits to TJX brands T.J. Maxx and Marshalls generally hovered near last year’s levels, comfortably outperforming traditional apparel’s 3.5% YoY decline. Still, their softer momentum relative to Ross may point to some pullback in the more discretionary, treasure-hunt side of the off-price experience.

While both companies sell branded merchandise, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls skew toward higher-income shoppers and somewhat higher price points. That greater emphasis on nice-to-have purchases may leave them somewhat more exposed when consumers rein in discretionary spending.

Higher gas prices may also have weighed on store visits. With the national average for a gallon of regular gas reaching $4.09 in late July, up from $3.16 a year earlier, some T.J. Maxx and Marshalls shoppers may have been more inclined to skip the drive and shop online instead – an option available at TJX.

Even so, both chains showed resilience heading into back-to-school season. Marshalls posted a modest YoY visit increase in July, while same-store visits at T.J. Maxx were just 0.6% below 2025 levels. That relative strength suggests back-to-school shopping helped support traffic, particularly at family-oriented Marshalls, where the category is a natural fit.

Value Still in the Driver’s Seat

Off-price continues to thrive, with Ross leading the way in the first half of 2026. And with household budgets still under pressure, consumers appear to be rewarding retailers that stretch their dollars furthest.

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A Quarter of Small Margins

Visits to The Home Depot and Lowe's remained close to last year's level in Q2 2026, with overall and same-store visits diverging less than one percentage point from Q2 2025 numbers. While these trends represent a moderation from the stronger performance in Q1 2026, they continue to reflect the longer-term improvement and stabilization of visitation trends observed since Q3 2025.

A Cooler Spring

Inspecting monthly visits data suggests that the ongoing consumer headwinds may be stalling the recovery – though the relatively muted declines suggest that the category's recovery is likely paused rather than reversed. 

Following a solid start to the year, The Home Depot's year-over-year (YoY) visit growth slowed sharply in March 2026, likely reflecting the impact of rising gas prices, which squeezed household budgets and prompted some shoppers to delay larger home improvement purchases. But despite the increased pressure on consumers, traffic still remained relatively close to 2025 levels throughout the analyzed period. 

Lowe's followed a similar arc, opening the year with positive YoY traffic growth that moderated in March. And following an April traffic spike – driven in part by strong traffic during its spring sale and easier comparisons to a softer April 2025 for Lowe's – traffic remained within two percentage points of last year's levels. 

The Projects Still Waiting

This relative YoY stability of Q2 2026 traffic for both The Home Depot and Lowe's may indicate that underlying demand for home improvement projects has proven resilient despite the macroeconomic backdrop. Growth in the second half of 2026 may come from the accumulation of deferred maintenance, or from an easing in prices and rates that finally makes bigger projects feel affordable again. Either could turn this plateau into a climb.

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