A Beautiful Season Ahead: Ulta and Sally Beauty Supply

The all-important fourth quarter of the year is underway, and leading beauty chains like Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply are gearing up for an exciting holiday shopping season. We dove into the data to see how the two chains have performed in recent months – and what they can expect in this year’s Q4 retail milestones.

Ramping Up Ahead of the Holidays

In Q3 2024 (July - September), quarterly visits to Ulta and Sally Beauty were essentially on par with last year’s levels. Ulta saw a minor year-over-year (YoY) uptick of 1.2%, while Sally Beauty maintained a slight visit gap. 

Diving into monthly visit trends, ever-expanding Ulta experienced positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the summer – especially in August, when an additional Saturday provided vacationers and back-to-school shoppers with extra weekend browsing time. And though visits to the chain dipped in September, they quickly bounced back again, with October seeing a 4.5% YoY visit boost likely bolstered by Halloween offerings and seasonal sales. 

Sally Beauty, for its part, has been closing locations as part of a store optimization plan implemented largely in 2023. Viewed against this backdrop, the chain’s modest monthly visit gaps – which narrowed to just 0.2% in October 2024 – are particularly impressive. And Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. has remained nimble on its feet, testing new concepts like Happy Beauty Co., a new store format with cosmetics and other self-care products priced under $10. 

For both chains, their October showing signals that eager customers are gearing up for a busy Q4.

Looking Back to See Ahead 

But how do Ulta and Sally Beauty experience the holiday season? Which retail milestones resonate most strongly with their customers – and where do they see the most impressive holiday visit boosts? 

Ulta Beauty leans heavily into Black Friday each year with early deals that culminate in a shopping bonanza on the day after Thanksgiving – and in 2023, the milestone was the chain’s busiest day of the year. On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ulta were up 270.6% compared to a 2023 daily average. The second-busiest day of the year for Ulta was Super Saturday (December 23rd, 2023), which saw a 219.0% visit bump. 

Still, looking at major Ulta markets throughout the country reveals significant regional variation in holiday milestone visitation patterns. Like many other retailers, Ulta experiences bigger Black Friday visit bumps in midwestern metro areas like Chicago, and much smaller ones in California hubs like Los Angeles. And though Black Friday is more important for the chain than Super Saturday on a national level, several CBSAs – including Dallas, New York, and Los Angeles – saw bigger boosts on Super Saturday than on Black Friday. 

Sally Beauty – with its more specialized focus on hair care products – sees smaller holiday visit bumps than Ulta. But the chain’s holiday deals do draw crowds. December 23rd was Sally Beauty’s busiest day last year, with visits up 86.2% nationwide and significantly elevated throughout the chain’s major markets. And though Black Friday is much less significant for the retailer – in 2023, it was only Sally Beauty’s 11th busiest day of the year – the chain’s Black Friday deals drove a 55.4% visit bump.

Going the Distance for Holiday Finds

And visits aren’t the only thing that increase at Ulta and Sally Beauty during the holidays. Looking at driving distances to the two chains shows that on Q4 milestones – and especially Black Friday – people travel farther to shop the sales. On Black Friday 2023, and to a lesser extent Super Saturday, both retailers saw significant jumps in the share of visitors traveling more than 10 or 30 miles to visit their brick-and-mortar locations. 

Much to Anticipate

Affordable luxuries like cosmetics and hair care products make the perfect stocking stuffers for consumers still concerned about high prices. And if last year’s holiday trends are any indication, Ulta and Sally Beauty appear poised to enjoy a very festive holiday season indeed. 

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