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October Deals Deliver Uneven Gains
Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days have become a major event for brick-and-mortar retailers too, with chains like Target, Walmart, Best Buy and Kohl's rolling out competing promotions. The October sales also help kick off the holiday shopping season, offering an early glimpse of what retailers might expect in the all-important fourth quarter.
This year, Target and Kohl’s emerged as the clearest traffic winners. With gas prices at record highs for the season, their higher-income audiences and broad range of accessible price points may have given them an edge – attracting shoppers with room in their budgets and plenty of affordable reasons to make the trip.
Kohl’s Gets the Biggest Traffic Bump
Kohl's saw the biggest boost relative to recent traffic patterns. Visits during its sale ran 9.6% above the recent same-weekday average, with gains reaching 11.1% on both Amazon Prime Days. The chain sweetened its discounts with an extra coupon and Kohl's Cash, giving shoppers more reasons to buy during the event – and to come back afterward. On Friday, October 9, the first day that Kohl's Cash could be redeemed, visits ran 22.3% above the recent average.
Target and Walmart recorded more modest lifts of 2.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Best Buy's sale-day average was essentially flat. Still, Best Buy's visits ran 3.9% above baseline on Wednesday, October 7 – the second Prime Day – and 2.2% above on Thursday. Those gains suggest the chain once again captured some of the shopping activity around Amazon's event, as shoppers compared electronics deals across retailers.
Target Builds on Existing Momentum
Compared with equivalent sale days last year, Target led the group with visits up 6.0% year over year (YoY). The chain shortened its fall event from seven days to two, potentially concentrating demand into a smaller window. And with traffic already driving Target's Q2 growth, the promotion appears to have built on a recovery that was already underway.
Kohl's also posted solid growth, with visits up 4.5% YoY, while Walmart and Best Buy saw declines of 0.9% and 2.2%, respectively. Best Buy's result partly reflects a tougher comparison: The chain was lapping the 2025 debut of its Techtober sale, which drew strong traffic last year. Hurricane Isaias' Gulf Coast landfall on October 9 may also have weighed on Walmart's and Best Buy's YoY results, as both chains' sales extended through the storm-affected period.
Audience and Price Points Help Explain the Gap
So what gave Target and Kohl's an edge? Audience income and merchandise mix may help explain the difference.
Both chains drew from relatively affluent markets, with median household incomes above $95K – compared with a national baseline of $87.3K. These shoppers likely had more flexibility to absorb high fuel costs and still spend on discretionary purchases. And both retailers offer plenty of smaller-ticket items – from sweaters and sheets to toys – that shoppers can pick up without committing to a major purchase.
Best Buy's audience was also slightly more affluent than the national baseline, with a median household income of $89.7K. But its focus on electronics means even a good deal can involve a significant expense. A discounted television or laptop may take more consideration than a new sweater – consistent with CEO Corie Barry's observation that customers "continue to be thoughtful about big-ticket purchases."
Walmart's audience, by contrast, had the lowest median household income of the four chains, at $74.0K. The retailer offers no shortage of affordable merchandise, but tighter budgets may have left its shoppers with less to spare for additional discretionary purchases, limiting the traffic boost from the sale.
What This Means for the Holidays
October's results suggest that shoppers are willing to respond to promotions, but the right deal depends on who's shopping – and what they can afford. Target and Kohl's appear to have struck that balance, combining higher-income audiences with accessible merchandise and compelling offers.
As the holiday season gets underway, retailers that make purchases feel both worthwhile and manageable may have the strongest advantage. And if gas prices ease, bigger-ticket categories like electronics could find more momentum.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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