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Visitation Data Reveals Shifting Tides in U.S. Manufacturing
When we reviewed March 2025 visitation data for industrial manufacturing facilities across the U.S. – encompassing visits from both employees and logistics partners – our data indicated an uptick in activity. Notably, many industrial manufacturers, particularly in sectors like aerospace, automotive, and packaging, increased activity as they proactively ramped up production in anticipation of potential tariff-related disruptions.
While the official U.S. Census Bureau data on manufacturing new orders for April and May 2025 is not yet available (with April's full M3 report expected around June 3rd and May's around July 3rd), visitation data from our industrial manufacturing composite for April 2025 was reflective of the evolving tariff landscape that many manufacturers have faced the past several weeks. Overall, our industrial manufacturing composite for April and early May 2025 indicates that visits to manufacturing facilities have decreased year-over-year.
Several factors could contribute to this decrease: (1) general consumer uncertainty about the economy, which has impacted retail visits this year and may be dampening industrial demand; and (2) previously announced extensions to some tariff implementation dates, which might have led businesses to pause or adjust orders. Separately, the tariff environment saw a new development with the temporary reduction in certain U.S.-China tariffs enacted in mid-May; this change may lead to shifts in activity going forward but would not explain the decrease observed in April and early May.
Larger Visit Boosts to Categories With Greater Tariff Exposure
Were there manufacturing categories that saw greater year-over-year visitation trends than others? Unsurprisingly, categories that are potentially impacted by tariff activity – such as metals (including steel and aluminum) and electrical equipment – continued to see the greatest year-over-year increase in visits in April as manufacturers accelerated production ahead of tariff implementations or companies switched to goods produced in the United States (as shown below). General Dynamics, Howmet Aeropace, U.S. Steel, Nucor, and Powell Industries were among the manufacturers that stood out with respect to visit activity during April 2025.
Automakers Adjust to Tariff Aftershocks
Our previous analysis of Ford and General Motors manufacturing facilities indicated an uptick in visitation during late March and early April 2025. This surge likely reflected an effort by these automakers to accelerate production and build inventory ahead of significant tariff changes, including the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles that took effect on April 3rd and anticipated levies on auto parts.
However, in subsequent weeks, our visitation data indicated a return to more typical visitation levels for both manufacturers. These more subdued year-over-year visit trends likely indicate a period of adjustment and caution, aligning with the broader market uncertainty. The considerable financial impact from tariffs also led both Ford and General Motors to revise their 2025 financial guidance in early May, despite some discussions around partial tariff relief measures during that period.
Post-Tariff Uncertainty Cools Manufacturing Rush
Given the fluid and constantly evolving landscape for industrial manufacturers, what are the key takeaways? Our data shows a clear pull-forward in demand among manufacturers during March, as they ramped up production schedules ahead of tariff implementations, especially in sectors like metals and aerospace. However, this initial surge was followed by a cooling off in activity during April and early May, likely stemming from general tariff uncertainty.
Keep up with The Anchor to see where industrial manufacturing activity heads next.
