Big Expectations, Tight Budgets
With Black Friday just weeks away, expectations are running high. Forecasts point to strong holiday spending growth this year, with the National Retail Federation projecting sales to top $1 trillion for the first time.
Still, consumers aren't exactly feeling flush. With gas prices elevated and consumer sentiment at a record low, budget-conscious shoppers are likely to be choosy about what they buy and when.
So how will Black Friday play out for brick-and-mortar retail this year? Are early holiday deals eating into its appeal? And which retail categories are poised to see the biggest traffic boosts on the big day?
The Big Day Still Delivers
Holiday deals starting as early as October have become a fixture of the season – especially for big-ticket purchases like electronics and home furnishings. And a look at Black Friday's share of Q4 visits between 2019 and 2025 shows that the day's relative importance has indeed declined for these categories. For electronics retailers, the share fell from 4.9% to 4.4%, while for home furnishings stores, it dropped from 2.9% to 2.4%. To put these figures in perspective, an average day accounts for about 1.1% of a quarter's visits.
For most other segments, however, Black Friday has held its ground or gained importance. The day's share of Q4 visits increased for bookstores and beauty and self-care retailers, while remaining essentially unchanged for department stores, hobby, gift, and craft stores, traditional and off-price apparel chains, mass merchandisers, and discount and dollar stores.
The Thanksgiving Week Shuffle
Of course, the holiday rush doesn't look the same for every retailer. While Black Friday remains the biggest shopping milestone of the season for most categories, some see their strongest traffic boosts earlier in Thanksgiving week, while others enjoy a more prolonged stretch of elevated activity.
Last year, department stores saw the biggest Black Friday surge, followed by electronics stores, traditional apparel chains, beauty retailers, bookstores, and hobby retailers. And while Black Friday was the main event for these categories, many also enjoyed significant traffic boosts throughout the week – with electronics stores, in particular, seeing elevated traffic continue through Cyber Monday.
Mass merchandisers and dollar stores, for their part, followed a pattern more closely resembling grocery stores, with visits peaking on Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – as shoppers stocked up on food and other holiday essentials. For these retailers, preparations for the holiday meal appear to be a bigger traffic driver than Black Friday deals.
Betting on Bookstores
So which categories are best positioned to capitalize on this year's holiday surge?
Department stores and electronics chains appear set for a solid showing. Both continue to draw more than 4% of their Q4 visits on Black Friday, and with traffic holding close to year-ago levels in September and October, they look likely to attract sizable crowds again this year. Black Friday also remains a key draw for traditional apparel retailers, though the category enters the season on somewhat softer footing.
But it is the smaller-ticket retailers that may be poised to steal the show. Bookstores, for example – a category that has seen Black Friday gain importance since 2019 – saw year-over-year visit growth ranging from 9.7% to 12.5% between August and October, leading all categories analyzed in each of those months.
Off-price apparel, hobby, gift, and craft stores, and beauty retailers are also categories to watch. Black Friday has grown in importance for beauty chains while holding steady for the other two segments, and all three are entering the season with the wind at their backs. Their continued momentum offers further evidence that affordable indulgences are among the strongest drivers of retail traffic this year.
Let the Shopping Begin!
Black Friday isn't going anywhere. Even as deals start earlier, the day still draws close to 4% of fourth-quarter visits for department stores, electronics, and apparel, and its pull has grown for bookstores and beauty retailers. With budget-conscious shoppers still making room for smaller-ticket treats, those two categories – as well as off-price and hobby stores – look especially well placed for this year's holiday rush.
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