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Checking In on Off-Price’s August Outlook
In August, two of the country’s largest off-price retailers, Ross and TJX, laid out their expectations for the fall. Ross anticipated that its strong traffic momentum would continue, even as year-over-year comparisons grew tougher. TJX, meanwhile, faced two questions: Could T.J. Maxx and Marshalls rebound from a rare sales miss? And could its home banners keep growing in a sluggish home furnishings market?
The latest foot traffic data – including how often shoppers returned – suggests that Ross is keeping its momentum and points to encouraging answers for TJX: Marmaxx showed early signs of a traffic pickup, and TJX’s home banners continued to thrive.
Ross's Traffic Surge Carries Into Q3
Ross entered the third quarter on the strength of a traffic-led Q2 and raised its outlook for the rest of the year, even with tougher comparisons ahead. Visits kept pace: Ross’s same-store visits grew 12.3% year over year (YoY) in Q3, with gains near or above 10% in every month through October. DD’s DISCOUNTS, the company’s lower-priced banner, grew 7.9% YoY, in line with the solid, broad-based sales Conroy described.
CEO Jim Conroy had credited Ross’s Q2 traffic gains to new, returning, and more frequent customers, and Q3 data also shows the frequency part of that mix. The share of Ross visitors averaging at least two visits a month rose from 28.3% in Q3 2025 to 29.9% this year, extending a rise in loyalty tracked in summer 2025. DD’s share also edged up from 24.3% to 25.0%.
T.J. Maxx Leads Marmaxx Back on Track
TJX’s Marmaxx division entered Q3 on shakier footing, following second-quarter comparable sales that fell short of management’s expectations. CEO Ernie Herrman called the miss “self-inflicted” and noted that improvements were already underway in August. Foot traffic data suggests those efforts began paying off the following month: After a soft summer, both overall and same-store visits to T.J. Maxx turned positive in September, with growth accelerating further in October.
Marshalls, meanwhile, posted stronger overall visit growth in Q3, likely helped by new store openings, while same-store visits remained roughly flat. And at both banners, repeat-visit shares dipped slightly, which may reflect the gaps in merchandise mix that TJX pointed to in August. For a store built on the treasure hunt, more finds could bring more return trips as the fixes are implemented.
HomeGoods and Homesense Widen Their Appeal
TJX's home division, by contrast, continued to show resilience in a category that has struggled more broadly. HomeGoods and Homesense both came off a solid Q2, with management citing more transactions and bigger baskets. TJX also noted home was outperforming apparel as both banners saw strength in decorative, higher-ticket categories.
During Q3, visits stayed in line with that picture: HomeGoods' same-store visits grew 2.6% YoY and were positive every month, while Homesense, which has a far smaller footprint, grew 7.2%.
HomeGoods and Homesense have the lowest repeat-visit shares of the six chains, likely reflecting their dedicated focus on home, a category shoppers return to less often than apparel. And those shares held flat this year, which suggests the visit gains came from drawing in more shoppers. That wider appeal is consistent with the strength TJX described in its Q2 call, and leaves the home division with more shoppers to draw on heading into the fourth quarter.
Into the Holiday Season
Through October, foot traffic across most of off-price seems to have allayed the August doubts: Ross kept growing, T.J. Maxx turned positive, and the home banners held steady gains. As the holidays begin, will Marshalls follow?
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
