Waiting Out the Freeze
While the first half of 2026 brought hope of a thaw for home improvement chains, the summer and early fall suggested the freeze isn’t over. High mortgage rates have homeowners staying put instead of selling, reducing housing turnover and the repairs that come before and after a sale. Meanwhile, consumers are still holding back from large renovation projects as inflation and elevated gas prices squeeze budgets.
But the two largest home improvement retailers aren’t waiting for a thaw. Each is doubling down on its core customer base – The Home Depot on Pros and Lowe’s on middle-income homeowners. Through Q3 2026, visits to both chains remained close to year-ago levels as these strategies played out.
The Home Depot Leans on the Pro
Visits to The Home Depot were effectively unchanged in Q3 2026, down 0.1% year over year (YoY). Same-store visits stayed within half a percentage point of 2025 levels in every month of the quarter, while October same-store visits dipped 1.0%. That is steady footing in a stretch when the macroeconomic climate offered little help.
The Home Depot is betting that contractors, or Pros, will keep it on that footing. Most Pros still buy their materials in-store, and they come back, job after job. The Home Depot caters to the Pros through special distribution channels, dedicated sales support, and AI tools that simplify contractors’ office work. In Q2, Pro customers outperformed DIY shoppers, so the customer The Home Depot leans on is also the one carrying more weight.
At the same time, some Pro demand may bypass the store entirely. With more bulk orders shipping straight to job sites and nationwide delivery in two hours or less, many contractors can keep working while their order is on the way. Still, a business built around repeat contractor trips may be less exposed to a slow housing market than one waiting on big remodels, which may help explain why visits held level.
Lowe’s Leans on the Homeowner
Lowe’s took a different route to similar ground. While its visits dipped 1.3% YoY in Q3 2026, the trend improved steadily through the quarter. The retailer's overall visit gap narrowed each month, from 1.8% in July to 0.4% in September. And while the gap widened slightly in October, visits stayed just 0.8% below last year. The widest gap came in July, when rivals used tariff refunds to cut prices on seasonal goods, which Lowe’s chose not to match.
While Lowe’s has made inroads with Pros in recent years, its bet is still on a core DIY consumer: the middle-income homeowner, whose aging housing stock and deferred home improvement projects the company expects to pay off, even if that homeowner is cautious today. The retailer is courting that customer directly, with a home maintenance subscription launched nationwide in March and free same-day delivery for loyalty members.
As with The Home Depot’s Pros, some homeowner demand may never reach the aisle: The Mylow AI assistant is considerably lifting online conversion. But for a chain built around homeowners, keeping them engaged, in the aisle or online, may matter more than matching a summer markdown, and Lowe’s visits recovered most of their summer ground without one.
Customers for a Long Winter
Neither The Home Depot nor Lowe’s is waiting on a housing recovery. Pros come back job after job, and homeowners who stay put still have aging houses to maintain, even as some of both groups’ shopping moves beyond brick and mortar. With visits to both chains close to last year’s levels through October, The Home Depot and Lowe’s appear to have found customers who keep coming while the freeze lasts.
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