First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s: An FSR Roundup

Against the backdrop of what remains a challenging time for full-service restaurants (FSRs), we dove into the data to check in with three of America’s leading FSR chains – First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s. How did they fare in Q2 2024? And what lies in store for them in the months ahead?

Key Takeaways: 

• First Watch has embraced an aggressive growth strategy, and its efforts are bearing fruit: In Q2 2024, the chain saw substantial increase in both overall visits and in the average number of visits per location – outpacing both diners & breakfast chains and the wider FSR category. 
• Texas Roadhouse has also been in expansion mode, maintaining nearly consistent YoY visit and visit-per-location growth between January and June 2024.
• In the wake of rightsizing moves by Applebee’s,  the average number of visits to each of its restaurants is on the rise – a promising sign for the chain.

First Watch Rides the Wave

First Watch has emerged as a rising star in recent years, rapidly expanding its footprint while at the same time taking pains to preserve the feel of a small, local eatery. The restaurant is nimble on its feet – growing its audience through a strategy centered on continual menu innovation and special seasonal offerings. 

In the past year alone, First Watch added dozens of new locations to its fleet. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s aggressive growth strategy is meeting robust demand. In Q2 2024, YoY visits to First Watch grew by 16.0%, far outperforming FSR and diner & breakfast chain averages. And perhaps more importantly, the average number of visits to each individual First Watch restaurant rose 5.8% over the same period.

Texas Roadhouse in Growth Mode

Texas Roadhouse is another chain that has been crushing it in 2024 – and not just on Father’s Day. Over the past year, the popular steakhouse opened some 30 new U.S. locations, and plans to continue expanding this year. 

And foot traffic data shows that Texas Roadhouse’s high-quality, affordable offerings are resonating with consumers. Despite inflation-driven price hikes, YoY visits to the chain have continued to grow. And though some of this increase is due to the restaurant’s expansion, the average number of visits per location has also been on the rise: Between January and June 2024, Texas Roadhouse experienced near-consistent YoY visit and visit-per-location growth. Only in January and in April did visits per location falter, likely due to January’s inclement weather and an April Easter calendar shift.

On a quarterly basis, too, foot traffic to Texas Roadhouse increased 6.2% in Q2 2024  – significantly outpacing averages for both steakhouses (2.6%) and full-service restaurants (1.2%). 

Applebee’s Rightsizes for Success

Like many full-service restaurants, Dine Brands’ Applebee’s has faced its share of headwinds in recent years. Over the past 12 months, Applebee’s shuttered at least 30 locations, contributing to a drop in the chain’s overall foot traffic. But analyzing changes in the average number of visits to each Applebee’s restaurant shows that the closures may actually be helping to put Applebee’s back on a firmer footing. 

In Q2 2023, visits to Applebee’s nationwide declined 3.7% YoY, while the average number of visits per location dropped 2.7%. Since then, the chain’s YoY visit gap has narrowed – while the average number of visits per location has begun to increase. And in Q2 2024, Applebee’s closed its overall YoY visit gap and grew its visits per location by 2.3%. Though the chain has yet to return to positive unit growth, the rightsizing of its fleet appears to be bolstering Applebee’s remaining stores – positioning it for long-term success. 

Bright Spots Amidst an Uncertain Future

Full-service restaurants have had a tough time in recent years, and concerns that consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on continue to weigh on the industry. Still, foot traffic data suggests that consumers are once again visiting restaurants – fueling expansion for First Watch and Texas Roadhouse, and helping shore up Applebee’s long-term prospects. 

What does the rest of 2024 have in store for restaurant chains?

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.