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This week, we attended the Restaurant Finance & Development Conference (RFDC) in Las Vegas, a gathering of industry leaders including senior executives, real estate professionals, franchise groups, investors, and analysts. Similar to insights from last month’s Fast Casual Executive Summit, many operators acknowledged that 2024 has been a challenging year but expressed cautious optimism as they look ahead to 2025.
Restaurant operators have faced numerous headwinds this year, including inconsistent weather, heightened promotional activity across all tiers, increased competition from other food retail channels, elevated labor costs and shortages, and unfavorable lease terms contributing to a rise in bankruptcies. In Q3 2024, most restaurant chains experienced flat or declining visit-per-location trends, as shown below.
Still, some chains managed to achieve impressive growth in visitation per location this past quarter. Below, we highlight the top-performing limited-service restaurant chains (including QSR, fast casual, and coffee/beverage categories with more than 20 units) based on year-over-year visitation per location during Q3 2024.
The most striking takeaway from this chart is that these standout restaurant chains largely avoided the "value wars" seen across the industry this year. Instead, they leaned on menu innovation—chains like CAVA, Chipotle, and Wingstop introduced new offerings that didn’t overly complicate preparation—and operational excellence, particularly in drive-thru efficiency, with leaders such as 7 Brew, Raising Cane’s, In-N-Out, and Culver’s driving visit growth.
Reflecting on the success of these chains, it’s unsurprising that a major theme among restaurant operators at the RFDC event was maximizing returns from existing locations rather than prioritizing unit expansion in 2025. Many chains emphasized improving operations, including simplifying menus to boost throughput while still allowing limited-time offers to drive demand. Others highlighted technology-driven solutions, such as automated make lines and AI-powered voice ordering for drive-thrus. Additionally, executives explored alternative strategies to enhance unit-level returns, including expanded catering services and leveraging retail media opportunities.
What else is on restaurant operators’ minds as we look ahead to 2025?
- Restaurant value wars not going away in the first half of 2025. Despite a renewed focus on optimizing menus and operations, restaurant value wars are not disappearing anytime soon—at least not in the first half of 2025. Chili’s reported a 14.1% growth in comparable sales during the July-September 2024 quarter, driven by its popular "3 for Me" value campaign, with transaction growth of 6.5% and a 10.1% rise in visits per location according to Placer data. Other casual dining operators are responding with similar value-driven promotions, such as Applebee’s “Really BIG Meal Deal” and Red Robin’s “$10 Gourmet Cheeseburger Deal.” Meanwhile, McDonald’s is extending its $5 Meal Deal into December, signaling that other QSR chains will likely follow suit with bundled value offerings into next year.
- CAVA's continued momentum. CAVA’s remarkable performance also stood out--something Placer's blog team recently highlighted--including an 18.1% increase in same-restaurant sales during Q3 2024, bolstered by 12.9% transaction growth. As the chain diversifies its visitor base and boosts visits per location, it has effectively managed increased demand through innovations such as Garlic Ranch Pita Chips, a refreshed loyalty program, seasonal menu additions, and its "Project Soul" store format—which emphasizes human connection with softer seating, greenery, and a warmer design palette. CAVA’s successful market entry into Chicago further underscores its growth potential. Notably, the chain's visit-per-location trends in Chicago remain ahead of nationwide trends, positioning it for success as it plans to enter South Florida and additional Midwest markets. At a time when many early-stage restaurant chains struggle with expansion, CAVA’s results showcase its operational strength and ability to capture new market opportunities.
- Starbucks turnaround in focus. Starbucks' turnaround efforts were a frequent topic at this year’s RFDC show. The chain recently debuted new TV ads, reminiscent of Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol’s successful turnaround playbook during his time at Chipotle. Niccol’s strategy to enhance the customer experience, reduce bottlenecks and operational complexities, and refine the Mobile Order and Pay system remains promising but will require time to take full effect. Expect further menu updates in early 2025, including a more streamlined offering—beyond the already announced discontinuation of the olive-oil-infused Oleato drinks.
