Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In
Article

Panera Bread Well Positioned for Possible IPO

Find out how Panera Bread is performing ahead of its rumored IPO.

By 
Shira Petrack
March 25, 2024
Panera Bread Well Positioned for Possible IPO
SHARE
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
Key Takeaways

With rumors swirling of a potential Panera Bread IPO in 2024, we dove into the data to find out how the St. Louis, Missouri-based company is performing – and what sets Panera apart from its competition. 

Panera Bread’s Foot Traffic on the Rise 

Panera Bread has been on a growth spurt recently, with monthly visits over the past 12 months consistently exceeding 2022/2023 levels. Part of the traffic increase may be due to the brand’s larger store fleet – Panera expanded into urban and non-traditional markets with small-format locations focused on pick-up and digital ordering. And the company is not resting on its laurels, with Panera revamping its menu to compete more directly with meal-focussed fast casual concepts.

bar graph: Panera Bread Posted Consistent Visit Growth over the past 12 months.

Panera Plays a Unique Role Within the QSR/Fast Casual Landscape

Because Panera straddles the line of coffee QSR and fast-casual lunch spot, there is no one dining chain that directly competes with Panera on all fronts. Instead, Panera plays a unique role in the QSR/fast casual landscape: The chain has a strong café feel, with the company’s “Sip Club” membership program seems specifically designed to appeal to customers looking for frequent coffee fixes. But Panera also offers more substantial fare, and the upcoming menu overhaul promises to add even more hearty salads and affordable sandwiches to its array of options. 

The new menu may be aimed towards attracting more budget-conscious diners thanks to a focus on larger portions and the addition of several items priced at under $10. Some speculate that the changes are also part of the company’s broader refocusing towards the lunchtime daypart. Comparing Panera to Starbucks, which competes with Panera on the coffee shop and affordable foods front, and to Sweetgreen, a strong presence in the fast-casual lunch market, can shed light on Panera’s role within the increasingly competitive dining landscape. 

Panera’s Visit Trends Reveal Its Appeal During All Day Parts

Panera’s hourly visitation pattern highlights its unique place within the wider QSR-fast casual landscape. Like Sweetgreen, Panera experiences a lunchtime foot traffic rush – 30.8% of daily visits to the chain take place between 12 PM and 2 PM. But Panera also receives almost a third of its visits before noon – 30.2% of visits to the chain take between 6 AM and 11 AM, compared to just 13.2% of visits to Sweetgreen. Between 9 AM and 11 AM, Panera’s hourly visit share of 20.8% is almost on par with Starbucks’ 25.3%. (The small number of morning Sweetgreen visits is likely also driven by a difference in opening hours, with most Sweetgreen locations only opening at around 10:30 AM). 

Meanwhile, Panera also seems to be a strong dinner contender. Although Panera’s evening performance may not be quite as strong as Sweetgreen’s, the St. Louis-based dining chain still sees 17.3% of its daily visits between 6 PM and 8 PM – almost double Starbucks’ 9.8.%. 

These hourly visitation patterns indicate that while a significant contingent of Panera patrons treat the chain as their go-to coffee shop, many others tend to consider Panera as a lunch or early dinner destination. 

bar graph: Panera's hourly visit patterns sets it apart from competitors

Demographically, Panera’s Visitor Base is Most Similar to Starbucks’

Although analyzing hourly visitation patterns highlight similarities between Panera and Sweetgreen, focusing on the three chains’ visitor bases reveals many more similarities between Starbucks and Panera. 

The median HHIs in Panera and Starbucks’ trade areas stand at $79.2K/year and $76.4K/year, respectively. Around 34% of both chains’ trade areas consist of non-family and one-person households and 28% consist of households with children. Meanwhile, Sweetgreen tends to attract a much larger share of affluent singles – 42.9% of households in Sweetgreen’s trade area are non-family and one person households, and the salad and grain-bowl focused chain has a trade area median HHI stands at $102K/year.

It seems, then, that although Panera appears to compete with Sweetgreen for the lunch rush – and to a lesser extent, for dinner visits as well – the two brands’ audience bases are substantially different. On the other hand, Panera’s visitor base seems to overlap significantly with that of Starbucks – which may explain Panera’s move towards enhanced portion sizes and affordable meal options, which may set it even further apart from the Seattle-based coffee giant.

bar graph: Panera's trade area composition most similar to that of Starbucks. based on the STI: PopStats dataset and placer.ai captured trade area data

Bright Future Ahead 

Panera Bread is one of 2024’s most anticipated IPOs – and location intelligence metrics suggest that the buzz is well substantiated. 

For more data-driven dining insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.

Learn how downtown regions across US cities are measuring up with our free tools.
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.

Related Topics

Stay Anchored: Subscribe to Insider & Unlock more  Insights
Subscribe
SHARE
Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
INSIDER
Stay Anchored: Subscribe to Insider & Unlock more Foot Traffic Insights
Gain insider insights with our in-depth analytics crafted by industry experts
— giving you the knowledge and edge to stay ahead.
Subscribe
In-Store Retail Media Networks in 2025
Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl: Grocery's Power Trio
L.L.Bean’s Legacy Products Continue to Excite New Shoppers
Service Shift Pays Visit Dividends for Staples
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2025
Potential Tariffs Impact Shopper Behavior in the Baby Space
Placer.ai June 2025 Mall Index 
Where Is Domestic Traffic to Airports On the Rise? 
FSR Roundup: Casual and Upscale Dining Thrive
Beyond the Discount: Can Protein and a "Back to Basics" Approach Re-energize Starbucks?
Bahama Breeze’s Bet
June Industrial Manufacturing Update: A Tale of Two Economies in Mid-2025
How Limited Service Is Succeeding in 2025
Big Lots: Back in the Bargain Game
Do Exclusive Offers and Product Scarcity Still Move the Needle for Retail?
Stanford Stadium: The Coldplay Effect
Target's Back to School Comeback Window 
What Lies Behind Nike's Return to a Multi-Channel Strategy?
Capturing Diners With Creative Offers: LTO Home Runs in 2025
How Did the "Yes, JCPenney" Campaign Impact In-Store Traffic? 
Luxury Apparel’s Recent Strength
What's In Store For Back to School 2025? 
Placer.ai May 2025 Office Index 
Local Eats on the Rise
Living Inside America’s Oldest Enclosed Mall: Arcade Providence and the Promise of Mixed-Use
Burger King’s Fire-Breathing LTO Drives Visits
Placer.ai Mall Index: May 2025 & Memorial Day Strength
Coach Keeps Visits Up
DICK’s Sporting Goods Expands Its Audience Reach with Foot Locker Acquisition
Darden Restaurants: Raising the Steaks in 2025
Much Ado About Store Size
Discount & Dollar Stores Emerge as a Front Runner in 2025 
What Can Pharmacy Chains Gain From Rite Aid’s Closures?
Jagalchi Food Hall Opens at Serramonte Center and Crowds Follow
Memorial Day 2025 Consumer Traffic Recap 
Five Below and Ollie’s Continued Foot Traffic Success
Kohl’s: Bright Spots to Build On?
Gauging the Tariff Impact on Manufacturing – May 2025 Update 
Wayfair at Year One – A Go-To Furniture Destination Spot
Who Attended the 2025 Kentucky Derby?
Lululemon and DICK’s: Scoring Big With Celebs and Events
Gap & Ulta Traffic Rebound After Tough Start to 2025
Can Chili’s Repeat its 2024 Success in 2025? 
Dollar Stores: Stability in The New Year
How Did Consumers Celebrate Mother's Day 2025?
Off-Price And On Point
Department Stores in 2025: A Mid-Year Recap
Boot Barn Still Growing in 2025
Wholesale Clubs Find Success in Q1 2025 
Lowe’s and The Home Depot: Weathering Q1 Storms and Looking to the Horizon
QSR Q1 2025 Final Thoughts
Placer.ai April 2025 Office Index: Recovery Apace
How Are Coachella Crowds Evolving? 
Broad Pickins’ for Big Chicken
Placer.ai Mall Index: Traffic Up Across All Mall Formats 
The Untapped Potential of Class-B Malls 
First Watch Traffic Continues to Climb 
Warby Parker and Allbirds: Stabilization Trends Into 2025
Resilience 5 Years Post-Covid:  Spotlight on Victoria Gardens in Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Self-Storage: Resilience in 2025
Aldi & Lidl's Winning Formula
Dutch Bros Gains, But Starbucks Holds Top Spot
Love in the Time of Bookstores
CAVA and sweetgreen Take to the Suburbs
The Impact of QSR Promotions in Q1 2025
Sinners Fuels Movie Theater Momentum
Health-Centric Grocers Lead the Way 
Crafting a Goodbye: What Location Analytics Reveals About JOANN’s Departure
All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter
What Visitation Data Reveals About Industrial Manufacturing Demand Ahead of Tariffs
McDonald’s & Chipotle Q1 2025 Recap
Location Intelligence On Display: A Look at Los Angeles's Top Museums
3 Insights Into the Shopping Habits of Older Consumers 
Placer 100 Index, March 2025 Recap – Which Chains Weathered the Storm? 
The Post-Pandemic Retail Evolution: A look back on the last five years
Orlando Theme Park Wars Heat Up 
Albertsons Analysis: Stable Start to 2025
What Visitation Data Reveals About Consumer Behavior Ahead of Tariff Implementation
Block-Buster Alert: A Minecraft Movie Placer Byte
Placer.ai March 2025 Office Index: Back to Recovery
Q1 2025 Quick-Service and Fast-Casual Recap
Retail & Dining Q1 2025 Recap: Budget-Friendly Segments Shine 
Placer.ai March 2025 Mall Index: Visits Rebound 
Meal Prep Madness: Wild Fork Foods and Clean Eatz
Dave & Buster’s Ups Its Game
Coffee Visits: Perks in The Segment 
The Dining Habits of College Students
Old Navy's Foray Into Occasionwear
JonasCon Brings Even More Experiential to American Dream 
What Happened to Family Dollar? 
The Impending Transformation of Bev-Alc Retail
CVS and Walgreens in 2025
Target’s Bet on Babies 
The Changing Apparel Landscape in 2025
Trader Joe’s and Aldi’s Continued Success
Retailers Betting on High Income Households
Brooks Brothers Rightsizing Success
The Rise of Smaller-Format Home Improvement Retailers: How Ace Hardware and Harbor Freight Are Outpacing Big-Box Chains
Walmart’s Mall Purchase: Towards a More Diversified Portfolio 
Placer.ai Named One of America’s Best Startup Employers 2025 by Forbes