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Seasonal Peaks Meet a More Value-Conscious Consumer
The last full week before Christmas (December 15th to 21st) saw massive seasonal spikes in traffic across the board, underscoring the continued importance of physical retail during the holiday season. But while visits rose broadly compared to the year-to-date (YTD) average, year-over-year comparisons tell a more nuanced story, with many traditional gifting categories experiencing modest declines relative to 2024.
Part of this softness likely reflects the calendar shift. Super Saturday fell on December 20th in 2025 but on December 21st in 2024, so 2025 holiday shoppers enjoyed an extra day between Super Saturday and Christmas to complete last-minute purchases. Yet a deeper look at the data suggests that timing alone does not tell the full story. Value-oriented retailers – including dollar stores, thrift stores, and off-price chains – saw traffic remain flat or even increase year over year (YoY) despite the same calendar shift.
So consumers are still spending, but they are trading down, actively seeking deals, and gravitating toward “treasure hunt” retail experiences rather than traditional discretionary splurges.
The Flight to Value: Discount & Dollar Stores Win the Week
In a season defined by economic prudence, the most immediate winners were the retailers promising the most bang for the buck. Discount & Dollar Stores – not a traditional holiday category – saw a healthy seasonal uplift of 37.3% compared to their weekly average as well as a 3.8% traffic increase compared to 2024. In contrast, Superstores saw smaller spikes compared to the YTD average and YoY visits dips of 4.6%.
The outperformance of dollar stores suggests that shoppers were making targeted, smaller-basket trips for affordable essentials and stocking stuffers rather than relying solely on the "one-stop-shop" giants.
Softer Year for Traditional Gifting
The "traditional" holiday categories, including apparel and electronic stores, experienced their expected massive seasonal "pop," but – like superstores – struggled to match the highs of 2024.
And while some of the decline can be explained by the calendar shift, the double-digit YoY drop in traffic to key holiday categories such as department stores suggests that timing alone does not account for the slowdown. Instead, the data indicates that consumers are still showing up to buy gifts, but are purchasing fewer items or choosing lower-priced alternatives – forcing traditional discretionary retailers to compete more aggressively for a shrinking share of wallet.
Malls At the Center of the Season
Malls showed a similar pattern, with strong seasonal traffic surges alongside YoY declines – although these YoY gaps were far smaller than in other discretionary categories. This resilience suggests that, despite headwinds facing individual retailers, the mall itself remains the central hub of the holiday shopping experience.
The "Treasure Hunt" Advantage
The off-price sector delivered one of the strongest signals this season, posting sharp seasonal traffic surges alongside modest YoY gains despite unfavorable calendar shifts. Thrift stores also stood out, recording a notable YoY increase in visits even as traffic came in slightly below the category’s YTD weekly average – likely reflecting the category’s year-round strength and its relatively recent emergence as a holiday shopping destination.
This data underscores the outsized role of value perception in shaping holiday shopping behavior and highlights the growing appeal of the “thrill of the find.” Whether hunting for a designer deal or uncovering a one-of-a-kind vintage piece, consumers increasingly favored discovery-driven experiences over the standardized assortments of traditional retail.
Lessons from the 2025 Holiday Season
For retailers looking ahead to 2026, the lessons of this holiday season are stark. First, value is non-negotiable – consumers are actively migrating to formats that offer perceived savings. Second, the mall is not dead, but it is evolving. The format remains a critical seasonal traffic driver, but it must compete harder on convenience and experience. Finally, the success of the off-price and thrift sectors suggests that inventory freshness and the "treasure hunt" dynamic are powerful tools to combat consumer fatigue. As we close the books on 2025, it’s clear that while the consumer is still shopping, they are doing so with a sharper, more critical eye.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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