.svg)
The U.S. grocery sector is increasingly polarized. Traffic and growth are concentrating at the far ends of the quality-savings spectrum, where retailers with clear, disciplined value propositions are pulling ahead. Meanwhile, grocers that sit in the middle – or only weakly signal what they stand for – are struggling to keep pace.
This analysis builds on the insights from dunnhumby's U.S. Retailer Preference Index (RPI) for Grocery.
Growth at the Ends of the Spectrum
As the chart below illustrates, visit growth is diverging significantly across grocery formats, with success concentrated at both ends of the quality-price spectrum.
Savings-first retailers such as Aldi have been thriving consistently since 2023, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth generally outpacing that of the wider grocery category. Quality-first non-conventional chains like Sprouts Farmers Market have also done well, particularly in 2025 – though their performance lagged behind savings-first chains for much of 2023 and 2024.
But arguably the most consistently impressive performers – with slightly lower YoY growth most months but less volatility over time – have been the so-called “Unicorns”, including chains such as Trader Joe’s and H-E-B that defy grocery’s traditional quality-price tradeoff through extreme focus. By limiting assortments or going all-in on specific geographic areas, these retailers funnel profits back into innovation within their core missions, inspiring deep customer loyalty and creating a virtuous cycle that steadily improves the quality-savings equation.
Middle-of-the-road chains, by contrast, have consistently trailed the pack, struggling to gain traction in a market that increasingly rewards clear, decisive positioning.
Savings-First as Increasingly Standalone Destinations
But not every chain can be a Unicorn – hence the moniker. And between savings-first and quality-first chains, several indicators (beyond their more consistent YoY growth) suggest that savings-first grocers may be better positioned for long-term growth.
One such signal comes from cross-shopping behavior. In 2025, the share of visitors to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market who visited another grocery store either immediately before or after their trip declined YoY – indicating that more shoppers are treating the savings-first retailer as a primary grocery destination rather than a secondary or fill-in stop. A similar pattern emerged at Unicorn Trader Joe’s.
Quality-first chain Natural Grocers, by contrast, saw a higher and growing share of visitors arriving from another grocery store or heading to one directly afterward, suggesting it is more often part of a multi-stop shopping pattern rather than the first or only trip. As value-oriented chains become more complete grocery solutions, they are capturing a growing share of intentional, first-stop visits, reinforcing their role as everyday essentials rather than complementary alternatives.
Savings-First Is Expanding Its Audience
Another indication of savings-first retailers’ special growth potential is the rising affluence of their customer base.
While savings-first grocery stores have not yet reached Unicorn status, their assortments have moved well beyond bare-bones essentials, and they are no longer fully trading quality for value. Expanded private-label offerings, improved fresh selections, and tighter SKU curation increasingly emphasize quality alongside cost. And as perceived quality gaps have narrowed, median household income in these retailers’ trade areas has increased – rising from $72.5K in 2022 to $73.1K in 2025. This shift suggests savings-first grocery chains are gaining access to higher-income shoppers who once defaulted to premium formats, expanding both their addressable market and runway for growth.
By contrast, quality-first grocery chains, which serve the most affluent consumers, have seen median household income in their trade areas fluctuate in recent years – rising between 2022 and 2023 before declining thereafter. While this softening could indicate some broadening of their customer base, these formats are built around narrowly defined, premium missions, which may limit the extent to which such broadening can translate into scalable growth. As a result, their path to expansion may be more constrained than savings-first retailers’ upward reach.
Choose a (Value) Lane – or Risk Being Left Behind
As price sensitivity rises and perceived quality differences narrow, the retailers winning today are those with the clearest answers to a simple question: Why shop here instead of anywhere else? And in today’s market, being essential beats being special – unless you can convincingly be both.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
