Shira Petrack

Darden Posts Modest Q4 2025 Gains 

Traffic to Darden banners remained relatively stable in 2025, with the company seeing an average increase of 1.2% in overall visits coupled with a slight dip of 0.3% in average visits per venue across its brands. Average visits per venue improved towards the end of the year relative to the annual average, growing 1.5% YoY in Q4 2025 – likely due to the closure of several Bahama Breeze restaurants in 2025, part of the company's plans to sunset the banner entirely by April 2026. 

LongHorn & Premium Brands Lead 

Analyzing traffic by banner points to clear resilience at the top of the market, with upscale casual and premium brands such as Yard House and Ruth's Chris Steakhouse generally showing the strongest and most consistent traffic growth. This pattern suggests that higher-income consumers remain relatively insulated and willing to spend, even amid broader volatility. 

At the same time, LongHorn Steakhouse, one of Darden’s largest brands, also emerged as a standout performer, delivering steady positive traffic across multiple months. Given its scale within the portfolio, LongHorn likely made an outsized contribution to Darden’s overall positive traffic trends, helping to offset softness in other chains and reinforcing the company’s momentum.

Same-Store Traffic Trends Signal Genuine Demand Resilience 

Same-store YoY visit trends in recent months are very close to overall visit trends, suggesting that Darden’s traffic trends are largely same-store-driven rather than expansion-driven, with little evidence that unit growth is materially distorting overall traffic trends. Premium brands continue to perform well, and LongHorn is generating steady same-store growth across its large footprint, suggesting that Darden’s results are being driven by real consumer demand – especially among higher-income diners.

Darden’s results suggest that performance is being driven less by sheer scale and more by brand positioning, with concepts that offer either premium experiences or strong value perception (like LongHorn) capturing disproportionate demand. As consumer budgets remain tight, growth is likely to concentrate further in brands that clearly justify their price point – leaving middle-of-the-road concepts increasingly pressured to sharpen their value proposition or differentiate more meaningfully.

For up-to-date restaurant foot traffic, visit our free Industry Trends tool.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Broad-Based Growth Continues, with Outlets Regaining Momentum

Shopping centers continued their growth streak in February 2026, with visits to all three formats – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – up year-over-year (YoY). After leading traffic gains in 2025, indoor malls took a back seat once again to open-air centers which led the category with a 7.3% YoY increase in February visits. Importantly, outlet malls followed closely behind with foot traffic up 7.2% YoY, after increasing 3.5% YoY in January 2026 – suggesting that the format is regaining momentum after its recent lull. 

Outlet Malls Lead Growth During Peak and Evening Hours

Even more notable is that when isolating the peak mall hours (11 AM to 8 PM), outlet malls led all formats in year-over-year visit growth across every daypart – 11 AM to 2 PM, 2 PM to 5 PM, and 5 PM to 8 PM. And while evening gains were strongest across all mall types, outlet malls posted the most significant increase during those hours.

Experiential Positioning Could Strengthen the Outlet Comeback

This evening momentum may reflect a broader shift in how outlet centers are positioning themselves. Rather than serving solely as transactional shopping destinations, some are expanding their food and experiential offerings to encourage longer, more social visits. Recent examples include the addition of a craft beer truck at San Marcos Premium Outlets in Texas and the debut of a highly anticipated Japanese-Peruvian concept restaurant at Sawgrass Mills in Florida, which are likely drawing more leisure-oriented visitors to the centers.

Outlet mall's traffic softness in recent years likely reflected intensifying competition for value-driven apparel from off-price retailers and resale channels, which siphoned off some of the bargain-focused demand that traditionally fueled outlet visits. But if outlet malls can successfully differentiate through dining and experiential offerings – extending visits beyond purely transactional trips – they may be better positioned for a stronger 2026 as they compete on experience as well as price.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Kroger Traffic Up Going into 2026

The Kroger Company closed Q4 2025 with an average 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth and a 2.8% YoY increase in visits per venue across its 20+ banners, highlighting the ongoing resilience of the grocery category going into 2026. For the full year (2025), the company's overall traffic as well as average visits per venue increased 1.0% YoY.

Dwell Time Fell Slightly Alongside Rising Visits

But even as traffic increased, average dwell time across the company's banners decreased YoY – suggesting that consumers may be visiting Kroger stores more frequently but filling smaller baskets during each trip.

Traffic Trends to Kroger Mirror Company-Wide Patterns

Traffic trends to Kroger's largest banners mirrored the company-wide performance with more visits but a shorter average dwell time compared to the previous year. 

These patterns reflect larger trends seen across the grocery space, where traffic growth has been largely driven by an increase in shorter trips as shoppers split their lists across retailers and make more targeted visits based on price, promotion, or specific product needs. In this more fragmented and mission-driven environment, Kroger’s scale, private-label penetration, and data-driven promotional engine provide a competitive advantage. Still, in a market defined by shorter, targeted visits, sustainable growth will depend on Kroger’s ability to defend “share of list” while leveraging its operational efficiency and loyalty ecosystem to convert traffic gains into profitable sales. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Sprouts Visits Still on the Rise – But Visits per Venue Are Moderating

Sprouts closed Q4 2025 on a positive traffic note, with overall visits rising 4.0% year-over-year (YoY), although average visits per location declined slightly – suggesting that growth in its more established core markets may be beginning to normalize. As such, the company’s recent expansion into new states – including the opening of its first New York location – reflects a logical next phase of growth, as Sprouts looks beyond its traditional strongholds to unlock incremental demand in less penetrated geographies.

Longer-Distance Shoppers Fuel More Visit Gains

A closer look at visit patterns by distance suggests that Sprouts’ growth is increasingly being driven by customers traveling from farther away – a dynamic that aligns with its broader national expansion strategy. From September through January, visit gains from shoppers located more than five miles away consistently outpaced those from within a five-mile radius. 

This pattern points to expanding trade areas and growing destination appeal, which is critical as the retailer enters new states and builds brand awareness beyond its traditional strongholds. As Sprouts pushes into newer geographies, its ability to draw shoppers from a wider radius reinforces the scalability of its model and supports its strategy of growing into a more nationally recognized specialty grocer.

For more data-driven grocery insights, visit placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Malls Start the Year Strong

Malls started the year on a strong note, with year-over-year traffic increases across all three mall formats. Open-air shopping centers received the largest gains, with visits up 6.2% compared to January 2025. Indoor malls, which outperformed the other formats for much of 2025, also posted solid growth of 4.5% YoY – a notable result given their already strong performance last January. Even outlet malls, which struggled to maintain growth momentum for most of 2025, saw a 3.6% increase in visits – perhaps suggesting that consumers are entering 2026 more willing to return to discretionary shopping destinations after a cautious 2025.

Increased Returns Activity Likely Contributed to Visit Strength 

A closer look at the data suggests that a meaningful share of last month’s mall traffic may have been driven by post-holiday retail returns. There is some evidence that return activity was higher this January than in January 2025, and the timing of visits supports this interpretation. 

Mall traffic was heavily front-loaded to the first two weeks of the year – consistent with the post-holiday returns window – with visit growth already beginning to moderate during the third week of January. (The more pronounced decline in traffic observed in the final week of the month was likely driven by the impact of Winter Storm Fern, which weighed on visits across all mall formats).

Short Trips Surge, but Longer Visits Grow Too

Visit duration patterns further support the idea that increased returns activity drove much of January’s mall traffic surge – the largest gains were concentrated in short visits, with trips lasting 10 minutes or less increasing by double digits across all mall formats.

At the same time, the data also shows year-over-year growth in longer visits, indicating that higher-quality, more engaged mall trips increased in January 2026 as well. So while post-holiday returns clearly played a role in driving January foot traffic, the simultaneous growth in longer trips suggests that shoppers were also spending time browsing or making additional purchases.

Efficiency Meets Engagement in 2026

As 2026 unfolds, this blend of efficiency and engagement will be a key dynamic to watch: consumers appear increasingly willing to re-enter physical retail spaces, but they remain intentional about how they shop. Mall formats that can seamlessly support quick, frictionless visits while also encouraging extended dwell time may be best positioned to capture both sides of evolving consumer behavior in the year ahead.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Higher-End Bloomin’s Concepts Benefited From Affluent Demand

Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar – Bloomin’s most upscale concept – posted year-over-year visit growth in Q4 2025, while elevated-casual chain Bonefish Grill also sustained traffic gains. Both brands draw disproportionately from higher-income trade areas: Bonefish and Fleming’s captured market median household incomes are $88.0K and $102.6K, respectively, compared with a nationwide median of $79.6K, according to STI: Popstats 2024.

By contrast, Outback Steakhouse saw largely flat traffic in Q4 2025, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill recorded a 3.7% year-over-year decline in visits. These brands attract diners from trade areas with median household incomes closer to the national average – $79.7K for Outback and $82.9K for Carrabba’s.

The traffic trends combined with the trade-area income patterns suggest Bloomin’s brand performance mirrors broader industry dynamics. As consumers remain selective with discretionary spending – particularly on dining out – traffic is increasingly concentrated among higher-end destinations offering a clear “value-plus-experience” proposition or casual chains with a well-defined value proposition. Meanwhile, undifferentiated casual dining brands continue to lag.

Against this backdrop, Outback Steakhouse’s flat to slightly negative same-store traffic through much of H2 2025 reflects its positioning within the more challenged segment of casual dining rather than a lack of strategic focus. Management has outlined plans to sharpen the Outback's value proposition through improvements in food quality, guest experience, and operational consistency – steps designed to better position Outback with diners seeking greater value and differentiation in 2026.

Casual Bloomin' Brands Faced Greater Holiday Pressure

Taken month by month, the data suggest that Bloomin’ Brands’ higher-end concepts benefited from both stronger underlying demand and greater flexibility in capturing discretionary spend. Meanwhile core casual brands remained more exposed to year-end pressure. 

Bonefish Grill’s same-store traffic showed episodic strength – most notably in October – indicating periods of solid unit-level demand even as momentum softened into the holidays. Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, by contrast, delivered its strongest gains on an overall traffic basis, pointing to system-level growth and traffic concentration that helped offset more uneven same-store performance. 

Meanwhile, Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill saw declines deepen into December across both metrics. This dip underscores the heightened vulnerability of traditional casual dining concepts during the holiday season, when increased competition for discretionary spending tends to pressure lower-differentiated dining occasions.

Positioned For A More Balanced Portfolio Performance in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, Bloomin’ Brands appears positioned to benefit as stabilizing consumer conditions intersect with ongoing brand-level investments. With higher-end concepts demonstrating resilience and Outback’s repositioning efforts underway, the portfolio is better aligned to capture both experience-driven and value-oriented dining demand.

For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.