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Not a One-to-One Relationship Between Retail Visits & Population
While a state’s share of brick-and-mortar retail visits generally tracks with its share of the U.S. population, the chart below shows that the relationship is not perfectly proportional. Some states, such as Texas and Florida, generate a larger share of retail traffic than their population size alone would suggest, while others, such as California and New York, account for a smaller portion of visits relative to their population base.
Sun Belt Over-Indexing vs. Coastal Underperformance
Mapping each state’s share of retail visits to its share of the population reveals a clear geographic pattern: Across much of the Sun Belt, retail visits tend to over-index relative to population, while under-indexing is more common along the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast.
Several structural dynamics may help explain this regional divide. Migration into Sun Belt markets has been driven in part by lower costs of living, and once there, households may have more discretionary income relative to high-cost coastal markets – supporting more frequent in-person shopping trips. At the same time, consumer behavior differs across regions: in higher-cost coastal and Northeastern markets, shoppers may be more likely to consolidate trips or shift spending online, contributing to fewer retail visits per capita.
Strategic Implications for Retailers and CRE Professionals
For retailers and CRE professionals, these patterns suggest that a data-driven expansion strategy should account not just for population growth, but for how and where consumers choose to shop across regions.
Sun Belt markets may offer outsized opportunities for physical retail expansion, as higher-than-expected foot traffic signals strong in-person engagement and potential demand for additional brick-and-mortar supply. Conversely, in coastal and Northeastern markets, where visits under-index and e-commerce adoption is higher, success may depend more on experiential retail, premium formats, or omnichannel integration rather than footprint growth alone.
For more data-driven retail and CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
