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Overall Traffic to Malls Up YoY in Q1 2026
Traffic to malls increased in Q1 2026 across all three formats analyzed – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – largely thanks to strong performances in the first two months of the year.
March Visits More Subdued
But March 2026 visits were more subdued, with indoor malls seeing a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline of 1.1% and outlet malls experiencing a steeper drop of 4.1% compared to March 2025. Open-air shopping centers were the only format to maintain growth, though their 3.2% YoY visit increase – though solid – was still more modest than the stronger gains seen by the format in January and February.
So what happened in March? Why did open-air shopping centers fare better than their peers? And how can malls return to growth across formats going into Q2?
Daypart Visit Analysis Sheds Light On Malls' Growth Path
A closer look at daypart trends helps explain both the strength earlier in the quarter and the slowdown in March. In Q1 overall, growth was concentrated at the edges of the day: traffic before 11 AM and after 8 PM saw the strongest gains, with additional support from the early evening (5 PM–8 PM). In contrast, midday traffic – the largest share of visits – was relatively flat for open-air centers and slightly negative for indoor and outlet malls. Still, robust edge growth was sufficient to offset this softness and drive overall quarterly gains.
But in March, growth in morning and evening hours slowed – particularly for indoor and outlet malls – while midday declines became more pronounced. This meant that the off-peak gains were no longer sufficient to offset weakness in the core of the day – leading to the YoY traffic declines for indoor and outlet malls.
How Did Open-Air Shopping Centers Maintain Growth Momentum?
But even as traffic to indoor and outlet malls declined, open-air shopping centers maintained growth momentum due to two key advantages. First, the format maintained most of its morning and evening gains, and its midday traffic trends ease from growth to stability rather than from stability to decline like for indoor and outlet malls – so the growth at the edges was still enough to offset the flat visits midday. Second, open-air centers are less dependent on midday visits, with around 77% of visits to open-air shopping centers occurring between 11 AM and 8 PM, compared to 83% to 84% for indoor and outlet malls. This means that open-air shopping centers are more resilient to dips in midday visits than the other two formats.
How Can Malls Cement Their Recovery?
The softness seen in March at indoor and outlet malls does not negate the strong start to 2026, which drove overall YoY visit growth in Q1. However, it does highlight what will be required to sustain that momentum going forward.
The data points to two paths to more durable growth: reigniting demand during peak midday hours through programming, tenant mix, and convenience-driven visits or reducing reliance on that window by expanding traffic in the morning and evening. Open-air shopping centers provide a model for the latter, with a more balanced daypart mix – likely driven by their dining, entertainment, and extended-hour experiences – that has helped cushion midday softness. For indoor and outlet malls, long-term stability will likely depend on a combination of both – strengthening midday performance while also building consistent off-peak demand.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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