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It’s been an eventful week for the QSR Burger category, with much of the focus on this week’s quarterly updates focusing on events that took place after Q3 2024 ended. Let’s start with McDonald’s, where an E.Coli outbreak overshadowed what was largely a positive quarter of visitation gains, where the chain had reversed the visitation declines that it saw during the driven year-over-year visitation increases through its $5 Meal Deal and Collector’s Edition promotion (below).
According to the company, the $5 Meal Deal “continued drawing customers back into our restaurants throughout the quarter, maintaining an average check north of $10 and being profitable for our franchisees.” Importantly, McDonald’s management also called out that the $5 Meal Deal is gaining traction among low-income consumers and that it “successfully [grew] traffic share with this group for the first time in over a year.” Our data indicates this as well. Over the past several months, we’ve looked at McDonald’s cross visitation trends with Aldi as a barometer of its traction with lower-income consumers. The percentage of McDonald’s visitors that also visited an Aldi had been steadily increasing through Q2 2024, but we did see a reversal of this trend in Q3 2024, suggesting that more consumers are finding value at the chain. The company remains committed to having the $5 Meal Deal on its menus until December as it works towards “sustainable guest count-led growth.”
McDonald’s E. Coli outbreak did have a negative impact on visitation trends, but these trends may be short-lived. Our data indicated a 6.5% decline in year-over-year visits nationwide on Wednesday, Oct. 25 (the day after the E. Coli outbreak investigation was announced), 10%-11% declines from Oct. 26-Oct. 28, and 7%-8% declines from Oct 29-30. It’s natural to compare this situation to Chipotle’s E. Coli outbreak in 2015, where visitation trends were severely impacted for many months. However, there are meaningful differences between McDonald’s and Chipotle’s cases. First, McDonald’s was quickly able to identify and communicate the source of the outbreak–slivered onions from a Colorado Springs facility at supplier Taylor Farms, which were immediately removed from the company’s supply chain–while also ruling out its beef patties as a source, which has helped to keep the outbreak relatively contained. Second, in addition to an E. Coli outbreak, Chipotle also faced a norovirus outbreak, calling into question the safety of the chain’s entire supply chain. These differences help to explain why we may already be seeing visitation declines inflect at McDonald’s.
McDonald’s Collector’s Edition was not the only nostalgia-driven promotion driving visits in recent weeks, as Wendy’s Krabby Patty Burger and Pineapple Under the Sea Frosty celebrating SpongeBob's 25th anniversary drove a meaningful lift in visits (below). In fact, this might be the most successful limited-time-offer promotion that we’ve seen across the QSR sector since McDonald’s Adult Happy Meal in October 2022. Importantly, this promotion innovated on existing core menu items without adding complexity. Given the strong visitation lift, we expect more nostalgia-themed promotions in the year ahead.
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