Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Apparel's Reckoning? What We Learned from Black Friday

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
December 15, 2020
Apparel's Reckoning?     What We Learned from Black Friday

There are few sectors that have felt the brunt of the pandemic’s retail impact like the wider apparel sector. After seeing a rapid recovery in the early weeks following springtime lockdowns, the category stagnated with visits down around 25-30% year over year for most weeks since the summer. And while there were signs that the wider sector was rebounding more sharply into the holiday season, that momentum was cut off by a resurgence of COVID cases which impacted nationwide mall visits. 

But, how did some of the top players in the apparel sector perform on Black Friday’s key holiday weekend? We dove into the data to break it down with a look towards the rest of the holiday season.

Breaking Down Off-Price’s Relative Success

While there are clearly commonalities between sub-sectors, the apparel sector is not a monolith with a single trend guiding the entire space’s performance. And indeed, some players have stood out for their strength in the face of the current challenges. Looking at three of the top off-price apparel brands, Marshalls, Ross, and T.J. Maxx, shows all three outperforming the wider category significantly over recent weeks continuing a trend seen from the early days of retail re-openings.

And this trend carried into Black Friday weekend where key off-price brands saw far stronger performances than department store counterparts. Four of the top off-price brands saw average year-over-year declines of 27.9% on Black Friday, with year-over-year drops of 15.2%, 9.2% and 13.0% respectively on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday that followed. This included T.J. Maxx seeing year-over-year growth, however slight, on that Sunday. On the other hand, three top department store brands saw an average year-over-year decline of 58.0% on Black Friday, with the Saturday, Sunday and Monday that followed seeing declines of 43.7%, 31.7% and 35.3% respectively. 

But this gap could just be a result of differences in orientation. Off-price, as a sector, is clearly focused on outdoor centers and has a value approach that aligns perfectly with the current environment, seeing a far smaller dependence on Black Friday weekend compared with other retailers.

But it wasn’t just this one sector that outperformed department stores. Analyzing the same brands against leaders in athletic apparel and athleisure space saw a similarly significant gap, even though the latter is also heavily dependent on mall traffic. Instead of seeing year-over-year visits gaps of 30% and more like the department store players, these brands saw exceptional performances post-Black Friday, especially considering the context. After watching visits drop 44.5% year over year on Black Friday, Nike saw visits down just 26.0% and 8.3% on the Saturday and Sunday that followed before watching visits rise 12.0% on Cyber Monday. Under Armour saw two days of visit growth with Sunday and Monday seeing traffic that was 4.7% and 6.5% higher respectively than the equivalent days in 2019. And while Lululemon did not see in-store traffic grow compared to 2019, it did see visit rates that were far closer to ‘normal’ than those experienced by department chains, a strong offline performance considering the current obstacles the brand faces.

This leads to a very clear conclusion that it isn’t just the location of these brands within indoor malls or a value orientation holding back their performance, but a fundamental challenge in how they approach customers especially in this environment. 

And that flaw goes beyond price. For even when we analyze Nordstorm against Nordstrom Rack we see very similar visitation patterns even though the latter offers significantly more value.

What Does Kohl’s ‘Get’?

If it isn’t just price, and it isn’t just location, then what is the challenge holding back some brands while others succeed? Analyzing Kohl’s and Macy’s visit trends over recent weeks could give a very strong hint. While the former has seen average year-over-year visit gaps of 30.7% for the six weeks from October 26th through the week beginning November 23rd, Macy’s saw an average visit gap of 42.6%.

On Black Friday weekend, the differences were similarly large with Kohl’s following a 39.1% year over year Black Friday visit decline, with an average visit gap of 17.6% over the next three days. For Macy’s that split was a 52.4% Black Friday decline and an average visit gap of 37.1% over the next three days. Kohl’s, while clearly benefiting from outdoor locations, is also seeing benefits from its investment in creative partnerships like accepting returns from Amazon or a newly announced concept with Sephora.

Key Takeaways

And this leads to the conclusion that the key to understanding the varying success rates of different sub segments is actually a combination of a few elements. One is the fundamental importance of location. In the very near term, outdoor oriented brands are at a significant advantage, but that could easily shift based on new trends that could arise as early as next year. Instead, the better way of looking at location is emphasizing those who have a more diversified approach. Whether it be the states or regions where different chains have locations or their orientation towards indoor malls, outdoor shopping centers or outlet malls, a more diversified approach will likely allow these brands to succeed in the face of any number of challenges. This diversification may come in the form of rightsizing, new store format concepts or innovative ideas to tap into new markets and audiences.

The second is the brand. Value is always a benefit, but a luxury value offering has unique advantages of its own and even, we daresay, the desire to target the middle has upside as seen in the performance of the Target’s of the world. The emphasis here must be on brand alignment. Marshalls and T.J. Maxx do off-price well because that’s the core element of their brand promise. Nike and Lululemon can charge more for athletic wear because consumers buy into their offering and the experience it provides. For brands like Macy’s to thrive in the years to come, it needs to double down on the authentic brand and approach that will make it resonate with its audience.

The third is timing. Yes, luck does matter. Macy’s, Nordstrom and brands alike faced a seemingly perfect storm that attacked all of their weaknesses simultaneously. While this will likely push them and other brands to focus on more diversified approaches, it’s problematic to pretend like the current environment is anything that could have been ‘predicted’. 

How will the apparel sector perform deeper into the holiday season? Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?
Northeastern USA Grocery Dive
Movie Theaters Storylines for 2023
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Discounters are Evolving
Leveraging Brick-and-Mortar Retail in 2023
America’s Evolving Work Patterns: A Deep-Dive into New York and Chicago
Placer.ai Mall Index March 2023
Tuning Into Record Stores
Five Franchises To Watch in 2023
What’s Next For Domestic Tourism?
It’s Showtime! Movie Theaters in the Spotlight
5 Limited Time Offers (LTOs) Driving Restaurant Traffic
Department Store Deep-Dive: Belk
Regional Grocery Chains Staying Ahead of the Competition
Five Chains that Rightsized for Success
Unlocking the Potential of Offline Retail Media Networks
Dining Out With Darden
What’s in Store for Self-Storage?
Nike & lululemon Update: Strong Performance Amid Expansion Plans
Many Ways to Win: Midwest Grocery Deep Dive
Retail, Reinvented: The Rise of the Pop-Up Shop
Navigating a New Normal in Business Travel & Commutes
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2023 Recap
Retail Categories Staying Strong in Volatile Environment
Ulta Beauty: Poised for Success into 2023
Placer.ai Mall Index February 2023: Reasons for Continued Optimism
Catching Up With DICK’s & Hibbett
The Miami-Dade Arena: An Advertising Slam Dunk
Car Washes Revving Up Visits
Tuesday Morning and Sunrises in Home Furnishing
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap
2023: The Year of the Discount Store
Aldi’s Success Highlights Growing Demand for Value Groceries
5 Retail & Service Categories Holding onto Pandemic Gains in 2023
Visitor Insights from Super Bowl 2023
2023 First Look: Home Improvement Update
How Are Target, Walmart, and Wholesale Clubs Faring in 2023?
Department Store Deep-Dive: Nordstrom
Off-Price: Taking Off in Uncertain Times
Checking in On Middle-Class Hubs
Who Attends the Super Bowl?
Placer.ai Office Index: January 2023 Recap
Focusing On Fitness: Q4 and January Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: January 2023 – Returning Mall Normalcy?
Location Intelligence Insights Into Concert Attendance
Winning Dining Strategies for 2023
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Location Intelligence Breakdown: Coffee Caps-Off 2022
Digitally Native Brands Lean Into Brick & Mortar
Washington, D.C. Population Changes & Migration Trends
A Location Intelligence Perspective on Macy’s Rightsizing
Amazon-Powered Shopping: The Future of Brick-and-Mortar Grocery?
Cold Weather, Hot Visits: Diving into Winter Resorts
Wawa and 7-Eleven: Leaning Into the “Slurpee Effect”
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle
Let’s Have Some Fun! Going Out Is In
Placer.ai’s Q4 2022 Quarterly Index
Placer.ai Adds Industry Executives to Leadership Team To Drive Company's Next Phase of Growth
5 Emerging Retail Formats: 2023’s Brick-and-Mortar Evolution
Grocery Update: Zooming in on the Lone Star State
2022 Office Recap: The Year of the TGIF Work Week
What Lies Ahead for Brick-and-Mortar Luxury in 2023
Placer.ai Mall Indexes: December 2022 Recap
Looking Back on 2022’s Holiday Shopping Season
Post-Pandemic Migration Trends in New York
Top Retailers for 2023
The Live Sports Advertising Opportunity
Domestic Migration to the Mountain States: Small Shifts with Big Implications
New Year, New Food: 5 Dining Trends For 2023
Announcing Placer.ai’s COVID RECOVERY DASHBOARD
This is Why Shop-in-Shops Are Everywhere
Super Saturday 2022 Recap
The San Francisco Shift
Grocery Year-End Update: Publix in the Spotlight
Three Ways Retailers Can Think Small to Increase Store Impact