Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

The Home Improvement Sector: A Sign of Consumer Confidence

by 
Ezra Carmel
 on 
September 21, 2022
The Home Improvement Sector: A Sign of Consumer Confidence

The home improvement sector was one of the biggest retail winners of 2020 and 2021. But in the first half of 2022, inflation caused consumers to think twice about home improvement projects that could break the bank. We looked at six leading brands in the home improvement sector – Lowe’s Home Improvement, The Home Depot, Tractor Supply Co., Ace Hardware, Menards, and Sherwin-Williams Paint Store – to see if we could spot renewed foot traffic trends that could indicate broader consumer confidence and discretionary spending health. 

Year-Over-Year Visits Trending Up

2021 was an especially strong year for home improvement foot traffic. And combined with this year’s skyrocketing inflation and tighter budgets, 2021’s strength made for a challenging year-over-year (YoY) comparison for 2022. In addition, the effects of high gas prices and inflation also limit non-essential spending, an added obstacle for the segment.

Still, foot traffic data indicates that most home improvement brands have been consistently narrowing their YoY visit gaps over the past six months. YoY visits in August 2022 narrowed across the board for Lowe’s (-15.2%), Home Depot (-11.1%), Tractor Supply Co. (-5.0%), Ace Hardware (-5.7%), and Menards (-9.7%).  

Sherwin-Williams broke positive in August 2022 as YoY visits to the chain grew by 5.9%. A portion of this growth can be attributed to a significant increase in the number of Sherwin-Williams locations. However, YoY visits-per-venue have also risen steadily, an indication that the chain hasn’t cannibalized visits during its expansion. 

So, while most of the brands we compared are still in the red for monthly YoY visits, visit trends are improving –  a sign that consumers did in fact return to at-home projects, or took on new ones, as the summer months progressed. It further indicates that the effects of inflation on non-essential spending could be dissipating - a critical and potentially trend for many retailers.

Comparisons to 2019

Analysis of the brands’ Yo3Y visits-per-venue gives a broader perspective on the home improvement sector and lets us compare visits to the category’s performance prior to its pandemic-induced surge. Location analytics shows foot traffic in recent months trending in the right direction, which could signal that discretionary spending is on the mend. 

In August 2022, Lowe’s Yo3Y visits (-4.5%) cut its June visit gap (-9.8%) by more than half, while Menards also more than halved its June Yo3Y visits dip (-12.2%), climbing to -5.5% in August. Home Depot stayed at less than a quarter of its June visit gap (-7.0%) in August (-1.7%). And not to be understated, Sherwin-Williams quadrupled its Yo3Y visit growth between July (2.8%) and August 2022 (11.4%). 

Leading the pack in Yo3Y foot traffic, Tractor Supply sustained an overwhelmingly positive visit growth of 36.1% in August, on par with its performance in recent months. And while the chain has been undergoing rapid expansion, Yo3Y visits-per-venue have grown as well, suggesting that new locations are successfully attracting visitors and growing Tractor Supply’s customer bases. 

If the Yo3Y data is any indication, home improvement foot traffic and discretionary spending health look to have taken a positive turn. 

Home Improvement’s Seasonality 

Historically, the home improvement space is subject to a good degree of seasonality. Foot traffic data shows that visits usually pick up as the weather improves in the spring, with the largest jump taking place in May. A second peak occurs in November. 

Due to rising inflation in 2022, the impact of the regular spring seasonal foot traffic boost has been relatively muted. Visits in May 2022 were up 46.7% relative to a January 2018 visit baseline. By comparison, visits between January 2018 and May 2020 were up 84.2% on average. And in May 2021, visits were up 71.3% relative to the same January 2018 baseline. 

Taking into account the already climbing YoY and Yo3Y foot traffic in the home improvement space, there is potential for more positive visit trends down the line as widespread concern over inflation subsides.

Home improvement projects in the spring may be more discretionary in nature, with a focus on improving curb appeal and enjoying the outdoors. But projects leading up to winter are likely more essential, with the aim of preparing for the inclement weather ahead. The recently narrowing visit gaps give reason for optimism that the upcoming November peak will give the sector a significant boost.

For updates and more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?
Northeastern USA Grocery Dive
Movie Theaters Storylines for 2023
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Discounters are Evolving
Leveraging Brick-and-Mortar Retail in 2023
America’s Evolving Work Patterns: A Deep-Dive into New York and Chicago
Placer.ai Mall Index March 2023
Tuning Into Record Stores
Five Franchises To Watch in 2023
What’s Next For Domestic Tourism?
It’s Showtime! Movie Theaters in the Spotlight
5 Limited Time Offers (LTOs) Driving Restaurant Traffic
Department Store Deep-Dive: Belk
Regional Grocery Chains Staying Ahead of the Competition
Five Chains that Rightsized for Success
Unlocking the Potential of Offline Retail Media Networks
Dining Out With Darden
What’s in Store for Self-Storage?
Nike & lululemon Update: Strong Performance Amid Expansion Plans
Many Ways to Win: Midwest Grocery Deep Dive
Retail, Reinvented: The Rise of the Pop-Up Shop
Navigating a New Normal in Business Travel & Commutes
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2023 Recap
Retail Categories Staying Strong in Volatile Environment
Ulta Beauty: Poised for Success into 2023
Placer.ai Mall Index February 2023: Reasons for Continued Optimism
Catching Up With DICK’s & Hibbett
The Miami-Dade Arena: An Advertising Slam Dunk
Car Washes Revving Up Visits
Tuesday Morning and Sunrises in Home Furnishing
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap
2023: The Year of the Discount Store
Aldi’s Success Highlights Growing Demand for Value Groceries
5 Retail & Service Categories Holding onto Pandemic Gains in 2023
Visitor Insights from Super Bowl 2023
2023 First Look: Home Improvement Update
How Are Target, Walmart, and Wholesale Clubs Faring in 2023?
Department Store Deep-Dive: Nordstrom
Off-Price: Taking Off in Uncertain Times
Checking in On Middle-Class Hubs
Who Attends the Super Bowl?
Placer.ai Office Index: January 2023 Recap
Focusing On Fitness: Q4 and January Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: January 2023 – Returning Mall Normalcy?
Location Intelligence Insights Into Concert Attendance
Winning Dining Strategies for 2023
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Location Intelligence Breakdown: Coffee Caps-Off 2022
Digitally Native Brands Lean Into Brick & Mortar
Washington, D.C. Population Changes & Migration Trends
A Location Intelligence Perspective on Macy’s Rightsizing
Amazon-Powered Shopping: The Future of Brick-and-Mortar Grocery?
Cold Weather, Hot Visits: Diving into Winter Resorts
Wawa and 7-Eleven: Leaning Into the “Slurpee Effect”
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle
Let’s Have Some Fun! Going Out Is In
Placer.ai’s Q4 2022 Quarterly Index
Placer.ai Adds Industry Executives to Leadership Team To Drive Company's Next Phase of Growth
5 Emerging Retail Formats: 2023’s Brick-and-Mortar Evolution
Grocery Update: Zooming in on the Lone Star State
2022 Office Recap: The Year of the TGIF Work Week
What Lies Ahead for Brick-and-Mortar Luxury in 2023
Placer.ai Mall Indexes: December 2022 Recap
Looking Back on 2022’s Holiday Shopping Season
Post-Pandemic Migration Trends in New York
Top Retailers for 2023
The Live Sports Advertising Opportunity
Domestic Migration to the Mountain States: Small Shifts with Big Implications
New Year, New Food: 5 Dining Trends For 2023
Announcing Placer.ai’s COVID RECOVERY DASHBOARD
This is Why Shop-in-Shops Are Everywhere
Super Saturday 2022 Recap
The San Francisco Shift
Grocery Year-End Update: Publix in the Spotlight
Three Ways Retailers Can Think Small to Increase Store Impact