Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

How Are Consumers Feeling Ahead of Black Friday 2022?

by 
Shira Petrack
 on 
November 17, 2022
How Are Consumers Feeling Ahead of Black Friday 2022?

We used retail foot traffic data and a consumer sentiment survey to assess the impact of inflation on the upcoming holiday season and understand where shoppers stand ahead of Black Friday 2022. The retail foot traffic data analyzes 2017 through 2022 visit patterns to five key holiday shopping categories – clothing brands, shopping centers, electronics stores, recreational & sporting goods retailers, and superstores. The utilization of sentiment analysis – even in a small way – can help bring added and necessary color to consumer decisions and factors that truly drive behavior and demand. 

About the survey: Our consumer sentiment survey polled 1,200 shoppers across the country ages 18 and up on October 27th, 2022 using Pollfish’s interface. The survey was conducted using a Random Device Engagement methodology and non-monetary incentives like an extra life in a game or access to premium content. Utilization of this survey is intended to give an indication of consumer preferences and show how foot traffic data and consumer sentiment perspectives can be utilized together. 

Black Friday Still Draws Crowds 

In recent years, Black Friday has grown from a one-day-only promotional event into a multi-week sales season. But Black Friday day still holds the power to draw large volumes of consumers to brick-and-mortar retail outlets. 

Between 2017 and 2021, the Friday after Thanksgiving expectedly garnered significantly more foot traffic than the pre-Black Friday November average. Even in 2020, when COVID diverted shopping online leading to record Cyber Monday sales, Black Friday visits were 91.9% higher than the daily visit average during November 1st-26th, 2020. And in 2021, Black Friday visits compared to the pre-Black Friday November average beat both 2017 and 2018 – despite the day coming after almost two months of holiday shopping during a particularly extended season.

Extended Holiday Season 

While Black Friday is still a major retail event, the central importance of the day has shifted. Retail foot traffic in October increased in 2018 and 2019, with October 2019 visits up 4.1% compared to an October 2017 baseline – indicating that the holiday season was already beginning earlier pre-pandemic. Still, the somewhat extended holiday season of 2019 did not impact Black Friday visits, which increased 10.7% compared to Black Friday 2017. 

But last year, October visits rose significantly as a result of the particularly extended holiday season – and the spike in October 2021 foot traffic may have affected Black Friday performance, as retail visits for the day remained below 2017-2019 levels. A combination of consumer concern over COVID and retailers urging consumers to shop early likely drove some to stay home during the typically crowded one-day sales event. 

This year, October traffic was slightly higher than in 2019, but lower than in 2021, which may mean that this year’s extended season is less likely to negatively impact Black Friday visits. Still, inflation is already causing shifts in consumer behavior, which could hamper this year’s Black Friday performance. 

Consumer Sentiment Ahead of Black Friday 

Almost two-thirds of holiday shoppers surveyed cited inflation and budget constraints as their biggest concerns this holiday season, and almost half (48%) noted that finding value for money will guide their gift buying process. Still, most consumers (76%) plan on shopping as much or more than in 2021 – and a whopping 85% responded that they will do at least some of their holiday shopping over Black Friday. 

So, while foot traffic fell slightly in October 2022 relative to October 2021, Black Friday 2022 may still outperform Black Friday 2021. Consumers are now more concerned about inflation than they are about contracting COVID, which may lead to an increase in Black Friday visits as shoppers turn out in search of good sales. Malls may benefit from bargain-hunting behavior, as the combination of many retailers under one roof will provide shoppers with the opportunity to compare deals and find the best value for money and to limit gas expenditures by enabling consumers to do more with a single visit. 

Superstores will also likely be a major winner of this holiday season, as more than two-thirds (68%) of consumers designated superstores as their primary holiday shopping destination. Traditionally, superstores are not major Black Friday destinations due to their everyday low prices, but this year’s strong value-orientation may lead shoppers to look for ways to double down on discounts.

Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2022 

Historical foot traffic data indicates that Black Friday is still a major retail holiday that draws crowds to brick and mortar retail channels. And while this year’s holiday shopping did start earlier than usual, October retail visits were not so high as to limit Black Friday performance.

But inflation is already having a major effect on consumer behavior, and it is difficult to predict how the wider economic situation will impact Black Friday visits. Foot traffic will likely get a lift from value-oriented consumers seeking out in-store Black Friday sales, but performance may be hampered by other consumers choosing to limit their shopping and preserve their budgets. 

Still, while inflation may limit Black Friday visit heights, the absence of COVID is also likely to give the whole season a boost. Last year’s holiday shopping was cut short by the rise of the Omicron variant in December 2021, but this year’s season is likely to continue through the end of 2022. A full holiday season gives consumers more reason to purchase gifts for friends and family and festive apparel for holiday parties – which means that, despite inflation, this year’s holiday season retail performance may still beat 2021.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Text Link
Black Friday
Text Link
Cyber Monday
The Promise of Luxury Apparel
Catching Up With Ulta Beauty & Gap Brands
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves
CAVA Still Going Strong
Driving Success: Auto Parts Chains in 2024
Checking in With DICK’S Sporting Goods
Mother’s Day Shopping and Dining Trends
Placer.ai Mall Index: April 2024 Recap – Retail Resilience Heading into Spring
Dollar Stores Still Gaining Momentum
Off-Price Apparel Chains After Q1 2024: Demographics in the Balance
Walmart, Target, and Wholesale Clubs Continue to Thrive
Home Improvement and Decor Check In
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2024 Recap – Recovery Continues
Movie Theaters in Q1 2024: A Preview of Coming Attractions?
Let’s Get Physical: Fitness In 2024
Where Are Workers Returning to Office in 2024?
2024 Wins: Sweetgreen & First Watch on the Rise
A Full-Service Turnaround: Bloomin’, Dine, and Texas Roadhouse
Wendy’s and Denny’s: Breakfast and Late Night Dining Drives Success
Coffee Chains: Q1 2024 Update and What’s Changed Since COVID
Checking in with RBI and YUM!
Chipotle & McDonald's Serving Up Success
Wingstop & Shake Shack Continue Growing Their Reach 
Strong Start for Sprouts in 2024
Crocs’ Footwear Fairytale
Who Attends NCAA Final Four Events?
Eclipse Fever: How Did the (Retail and Hospitality) Stars Align?
Exploring Albertsons Companies’ Grocery Growth
Placer.ai Mall Index: March 2024 Recap – Malls Rise Again
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2024 Recap
Florida Spring Break Break-Up? Travelers Still Love Florida!
Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield Emerging As Utah Hotspots 
Three Formulas for Experiential Retail in 2024
Aldi & Lidl Making The Cut
Texas Suburbs on the Rise
Exploring Luxury Hotel Brands’ Guest Segmentation
The St. Patrick’s Day Effect
How Can JOANN Make a Comeback?
Panera Bread Well Positioned for Possible IPO
Who Will Benefit From Family Dollar’s Downsizing?
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment: Food and Fun for Everyone
Darden Brands: Location Analytics and Consumer Behavior
Nike and lululemon: a Strong 2023, Sprinting into 2024
Where Is Retail and Dining Foot Traffic Thriving in Early 2024?
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – February 2024
Three Retail & Dining Chains That May Surprise in 2024
Specialty Discount Chains Rock Retail Therapy
Placer.ai Mall Index: February 2024
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2024 Recap
Ulta Beauty Continues To Shine
First Watch Sails Into 2024
Hibbett Sports and DICK’S Sporting Goods: A Psychographic Analysis
Checking in With Discount & Dollar Stores
Peeking Behind The Curtain: Movie Theaters in 2023 and Beyond
Diving Into Brick-and-Mortar Eyewear
Getting Into Gear: Exploring The Auto Part Industry
Recapping Valentine’s Day 2024 Foot Traffic Trends
Fitness: A Strong Start to 2024
Dutch Bros. Continues To Percolate Visits
Super Bowl 2024: Placer.ai’s Postgame Foot Traffic Analysis
CAVA & sweetgreen Are On the Rise
Hats Off For Off-Price
Who Is Shopping at Malls?
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains
Placer.ai Office Index: Looking Back at 2023
Recapping RBI & Yum! Brands’ 2023 Foot Traffic Performance
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – January 2024
Who Shops at Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters?
Three Taco Chains to Watch in 2024
Starbucks and Dunkin’: 2023 in Four Data Points
Who Visits CVS and Walgreens?
Fashionably Frugal: Apparel in 2023
Catching Up With Fast Food
The Grocery Sector in 2023: An End-of-Year Recap
3 Mall & Shopping Center Trends for 2024
Bakery Chains Rising To The Top
Placer.ai and Esri Partner to Deliver Geospatial Analytics
Tampa Tourism Trends
Going For The Green: The Changing Dynamics Of Country Clubs
Christmas Day Dining Recap
Major Urban Shopping Districts – Holiday Season Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: December 2023 Recap
Recapping the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – December 2023
7 Retail & Dining Segments to Watch in 2024
Diving Into Holiday Season Favorites
Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve: A Winning Combination
3 Budget Grocery Chains Finishing 2023 On a High Note
Making It In America: International Chicken Chains Bring The Heat
Domestic Tourism at a Glance: A Q3 2023 Roundup
Five Pizza Chains On The Rise
Jewelry Brands Taking Advantage of the DTC Opportunity
Secondhand News: Kids' Thrift Shops
Recapping 2023’s Dining M&As
MetLife Stadium Kicks Off Football Season
Placer.ai Office Index: November 2023 Recap
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success