Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

The COVID Comebacks

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
June 22, 2021
The COVID Comebacks

The wider retail recovery is well underway, but a more nuanced perspective is necessary to properly appreciate the relative rebounds of specific brands. Some sectors saw significantly greater challenges, while others benefitted from the unique retail circumstances driven by the pandemic.

We dove into the data to uncover some of the more impressive retail rebounds.

Department Stores

The ‘death’ of the department store was an oft-reported trend before and during the pandemic. And while the sector has certainly experienced its fair share of challenges, the overarching narrative of doom and gloom seems to miss out on the lingering strength and potential of leading players. In May 2021, visits to brands like Kohl’s and Dillard’s were down just 8.3% and 3.5% respectively when comparing visits during the equivalent month in 2019. Even Macy’s and Nordstorm – two of the companies often associated with the negative feeling around the sector – saw visit gaps improve dramatically in May with visits down just 16.8% and 14.3% respectively. These marked the strongest months for the two brands by far since the onset of the pandemic’s retail impact.  

The coming months may be even brighter for the department store sector with a critical back to school season around the corner and continued reopenings taking place in key states like New York and California. Kohl’s appears to be particularly well positioned, but even the mall based department stores seem to be better positioned than expected. Critically, this doesn’t overcome foundational challenges within the approaches of some of these brands, and a continued evolution for the sector is still likely necessary. However, it does put the performance into context, showing that these department leaders still carry a lot of strength that can be leveraged to driving a fuller and longer-term turnaround.

Grocery Laggards

Grocery was one of the segments that saw a renewed sense of strength throughout the pandemic. Yet, not all brands were treated equally. Trader Joe’s was one of the hardest hit brands in the early months of the pandemic with visits plunging. H-E-B, one of the wider sector’s leaders, also saw weaknesses with visits down significantly. However, both brands are on the rise with visits in May 2021 up 7.1% for Trader Joe’s and up 2.2% for H-E-B when compared to the same month in 2019. The recovery speaks to the strong standing of these brands and their unique ability to weather the storm of COVID. Essentially, while visits declined in the short term, the strong relationship developed with customers over time was resilient enough to drive shoppers back as ‘normalcy’ returned. 

Costco, hardly a struggling brand, is also showing a unique level of strength after watching a fundamental disruption to visit patterns throughout the pandemic. While year over year visits had been down throughout much of the pandemic, the optimistic case was that visitors were simply accomplishing more with fewer visits. And this concept does appear to be holding true as a wider retail reopening has driven significant visit growth each month of 2021 when compared to the 2019 equivalent.

Weekly visits further validate the returning strength for Trader Joe’s and H-E-B. The weeks beginning May 24th and 31st saw visits up 4.6% and 11.0% for Trader Joe’s and up 2.5% and 8.3% for H-E-B. The potential of this trend to carry into June and deeper into the summer should drive tremendous excitement around the recoveries for both chains. 

Lifting Itself Back Up

Another segment that faced uniquely difficult challenges throughout the pandemic was offline fitness. Gym visits were obliterated as COVID restrictions, health concerns and disruptions to routines created massive obstacles for the sector. Yet, Planet Fitness and Orangetheory have both shown the ability to recover. Visits to Planet Fitness locations were up compared to 2019 in both March and May signifying the unique power and pull of the brand. Orangetheory has seen visit gaps drop dramatically, with visits down just 14.1% in May.

And like the sectors mentioned above, this could be just the beginning. The consistency of these brands alongside their strong geographic reach could push visits even higher as reopenings continue and routines return, especially for the many people whose former gyms closed due to the pandemic. 

Brands to Watch

Other brands enjoying a strong and marked recovery include Guitar Center, Olive Garden, and Panera. The latter two are particularly interesting as they are part of a wider restaurant recovery that could have a significant impact on the wider sector. The ability of restaurant brands with a heavy focus on sitdown dining speaks to a potential revival that goes far beyond COVID. Should these players prove capable of leveraging the recovery to drive growth, the impact could very well reinforce the ongoing positioning for sitdown chains. As QSR was clearly privileged during the pandemic, a shift towards more drive-thru and takeaway was widely discussed. While this could end up being a greater part of the overall mix, the power of a dining recovery could create a far more favorable equilibrium. 

How will the retail recovery continue and which brands will thrive most? 

Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: September 2023 Recap
Placer Mall Index Recap: September 2023
September White Paper Recap
The Consumer Habits of College Students
JCPenney: Rightsizing and Revitalizing
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Placer.ai Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective