Chris Walton

It’s that time again. The time where I share my thoughts on everything I think I think about retail...at this very moment.

Over the first nine months of 2025, we have witnessed some pretty darn amazing things across the retail industry. We've witnessed traditional competitive boundaries blur as some large scale grocery players (at least, one that is one and one that wants to be one) venture into same-day delivery logistics, we’ve seen warehouse clubs reimagine convenience, and we have also had more than one retailer experiment with what the right size of its store footprint should be.

What emerges from this chaos is a revalidation of what omnichannel retailing really is. It is about the reimagining of how consumers shop, where they shop, and why they choose to shop one retailer over another.  

Therefore, the following observations represent not just trends to watch, but strategic inflection points that could determine which retailers will have the greatest probability to thrive going forward in this beautiful and increasingly complex omnichannel world.

I Think I Think Walmart Is Out-Amazoning Amazon 

In Q2 2025, Walmart delivered comparable sales growth of +4.5% (excluding fuel), driven largely by profitable e-commerce, and maintained stable store traffic. Monthly same-store visits, according to Placer.ai, were also remarkably steady between +0.7% and -1.8%, from May through August, amid industry-wide macroeconomic pressures.

Meanwhile, the other U.S. retailing behemoth, Amazon, began pushing (or is it forcing?) its way into grocery in August by way of same-day delivery. Walmart, on the flip side, and not to be outdone, also began putting significant resources behind its Walmart Fulfillment Services offering. 

All told, it is a game of anything you can do, I can do better. It is one-upmanship at its finest.

The only question is – who stands the better chance of winning? Or at least drawing blood from the other?

From my vantage point, Walmart has a much better chance of holding onto its grocery reign because it already is a grocer, and quite a large one at that – drawing nearly half as many visits as the entire brick-and-mortar grocery category. Walmart’s 4,600+ store advantage is sizable. Amazon may take from others but the moat around Walmart is pretty large.

On the other hand, will Amazon keep a similar hold on its vendor logistics business?

If I were a betting man, Walmart has a better chance of making inroads on Amazon’s logistics revenue than Amazon has on hurting Walmart in grocery. 

Said another way, I guess the box may soon be on the other porch, Amazon. 

I Think I Think Size Really Doesn’t Matter

The size of one’s store base is dependent upon so many factors. 

Location, the overall experience design, the ROI of “the box,” and more can all impact the size and shape of a retailer’s store base, and, more often than not, all of them actually work in concert together. Which is why anyone pontificating on the trend in the “size” of stores likely hasn’t put much thought into his or her argument.

Despite the recent run-up of retailers trying to get smaller (Macy’s, in particular, comes to mind), there is no tried-and-true rule that smaller stores will work or vice versa. 

In some cases, like in dense or urban markets, smaller stores might work, while in others, if the approach is one of creating destination-type stores, like Hy-Vee or Buc-ees, larger stores might work, too. 

My favorite example of someone “getting smaller” is Sprouts. As Sprouts CEO Jack Sinclair told me at Groceryshop, Sprouts realized its format had gotten too large, went back to its roots of differentiated products and great looking fresh produce in a smaller box, and has not looked back since. 

At the end of the day – smaller, bigger, uncut – none of it matters as much as what your brand is trying to accomplish for your customers and what, in turn, resonates with them the most.

I Think I Think Superstores And Warehouse Clubs Will Pick Up Share Via More Short, Quick Visits 

I think we can all agree that, generally speaking, Walmart and the warehouse clubs are noted for having great prices. On the flip side, what they haven’t been known as much for in the past is a quick and convenient shopping experience.

But that is about to change for two reasons.

The first is economics. There is always a trade-off between convenience and price. As budgets continue to get constrained, people will begin to trade off waiting in lines or navigating the dreaded Costco parking lot to save money. 

The second is the evolution of these retailers as omnichannel retailers. For example, Walmart’s Chief E-Commerce Officer David Guggina told me recently that one-third of Walmart’s scheduled deliveries are delivered to Walmart customers in under three hours (see video of interview). This behavior itself gives rise to the theory that people are starting to leverage Walmart for quick trips.

Delivery is only one leg of the omnichannel stool, however. 

The other two legs are buy online, pickup in-store (BOPIS) and the actual speed of the in-store experience itself. Much has been documented already about the rise of BOPIS following the pandemic, so I won’t belabor the point here because it, too, is likely driving the data below.

The other aspect is that places like Sam’s Club have done a masterful job of making their stores more convenient and time-efficient. Sam’s Club is leading the way on cashierless checkout in the club channel. Sam’s Club Scan & Go shoppers, which account for an amazing one-third of the Sam’s Club customer base, can simply walk through an AI-powered exit arch and then have a digital receipt sent to them upon exit.

Allow me to take a moment to put this last statement into perspective with a concrete example.

Pretend my wife calls me on my way home from work and asks me to pick up some milk. I have a choice: Do I go to the local grocer or do I go to Sam’s? If I decide to go local, I likely will end up paying more ,and I could also possibly have to wait in line to check out at either a manned till or a self-checkout machine. On the other hand, if I go to Sam’s Club, I can just walk in, scan the milk I want, pay at a paystation and then walk through the arch.

Which experience would you choose?

Enough said.

I Think I Think Good Merchandising Never Goes Out Of Style

The number one answer any retailer needs to answer in today’s omnichannel world is, “Why come to my store in the first place.” 

And that answer begins and ends with good merchandising. 

Take a look at some of the more creative merchandising efforts this year as depicted in the graph below:

What they all have in common is a “hook.” Someone got creative and went outside of the box to compel customers into their stores for new and exciting reasons. It is the definition of good merchandising. 

Therefore, retailers, convenience store operators, and QSRs can never rest on their laurels. They constantly need to push the envelope to one-up the year before and the competition. 

The best merchants get supercharged by the creative demands of this challenge. The worst merchants get their answers from interpolating spreadsheets and making decisions solely off of last year’s data.

I Think I Think Grocers Have An Untapped Merchandising Opportunity

Speaking of merchandising, the convergence of technology and the increasing tendency of consumers to use supermarkets as their mid-day lunch or snack source versus QSRs could inspire a unique opportunity for those grocers adventurous enough to seize it.

I have long been a proponent of electronic shelf labels. The use cases in support of them are almost endless at this point. One of my favorite use cases is the ability to run intra-day promotions, an idea that is virtually impossible with paper price tags, and one that also gets supercharged when the component of in-store digital media screens gets added to the equation as well.

Imagine a grocer who uses electronic shelf labels and then starts running unique daily promotions at lunch time. These promotions could be done on ANYTHING:

• Too many chubs of salami? Run a discount.
• Want your customer to pick up a heat-and-eat meal for dinner later? Run a promo on chicken parm for a couple of hours.
• Want to sell more high-margin vaccines out of your pharmacy? Run a two-hour takeover of digital signage and in-store audio.

You get the idea. It is the Venn diagram of retail media and in-store execution at its finest.

And I Think I Think These Are The Implications Of All The Above

The convergence of these above trends signals a tried-and-true retail axiom, i.e. that success is determined not by what you sell per se, but by how you can integrate convenience, value, and your brand (a better word choice than experience) across every touchpoint.

And this axiom will manifest itself in a number of self-affirming, yet sizable ways.

First, as the Walmart/Amazon tête-à-tête illustrates, a single channel advantage will become almost impossible to defend. Retailers need to decide in which channels they want to speak to their customers or risk being outflanked by competitors who will. This creates both vulnerability for established players and opportunities for agile newcomers who can build omnichannel capabilities from the ground up.

Second, technology will play an even bigger role as the industry equalizer. The Sam's Club scan-and-go example is the perfect encapsulation of this idea. It shows how technology can completely flip traditional competitive dynamics. Warehouse clubs, once seen as inconvenient despite their pricing advantages, are at the tipping point of becoming more convenient (and value-laden) than traditional grocers. Retailers who boldly invest in finding new ways to use technology to flip their positioning on the convenience-value-brand spectrum stand to capture disproportionate market share, regardless of their historical positioning.

Third, merchandising is and will forever be the epicenter of retailing. As physical store differentiation becomes harder to achieve, creative merchandising becomes the primary weapon for driving foot traffic and brand loyalty. Retailers who cannot consistently surprise and delight customers with consistent in-stocks, innovative in-store displays, exciting product collaborations, and limited-time offerings will find themselves relegated to utility shopping only, which is about as big as a “Danger Will Robinson” position as there is.

As I look back on 2025, Walmart, hands down, is “winning.” Sure, it has scale. It is the biggest retailer going. But scale isn’t why Walmart is on the hot streak that it is. The real secret to Walmart’s success has been its incredible speed of adaptation, rather than the scale of its operation. Its scale only enhances the impact of successful adaptation. 

That is the real punchline to the joke. 

What got you here won’t get you there. The task at hand is to transform fast enough to remain relevant in a world where the rules of engagement are being rewritten all the time, by competitors both large and small.

For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor. 

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When I first started Omni Talk back in 2017, I used to borrow liberally from the great Peter King and his Monday Morning Quarterback Series. In fact, one of the first articles I ever wrote – 10 Things I Think I Think I Love and Don’t Love about Walmart Right Now – was an outright homage to the man. 

The double use of “I Think” is unparalleled. It is pure genius. How the man came up with it, I will never know. It is the perfect mix of WTF and stop you in your tracks syntax because this article looks like it is going to be interesting.

All of which is why I am going back to my roots and imitating “The King” once again for my new column called, All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter.  

I am sure Mr. King never envisioned that his wise words about the gridiron every Monday morning would still inspire a now pushing-50 retail pundit to wax poetically about the state of retail but here I am, 8 years later, doing just that. 

So away we go!

Kohl’s New CEO Ashley Buchanan Has His Work Cut Out For Him

Ashley Buchanan, the former Michaels CEO, is the right man for the job at Kohl’s. Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels and has a background rooted in innovation and digital from previous stints at Walmart and Sam’s Club. In fact, I said on a recent podcast that Target would have been wise to look at him to succeed Brian Cornell. 

But I do not envy Buchanan. 

Not. One. Bit.

Turning Kohl’s around is going to be tough. Buchanan inherits 12 consecutive quarters of comparable sales declines, alongside store traffic trends that read like the opening of a John Carpenter movie.

‍In its most recent quarter, comparable sales at Kohl’s were a negative 6.7%, and Kohl’s also said that it expects 2025 revenue to fall in the range of 5% to 7%. Frightening indeed. Let’s just hope Buchanan doesn’t already feel like Jamie Lee Curtis trapped in a closet trying to fight her way out with coat hangers.

It is no wonder that Buchanan has already instituted page one of every new CEO’s playbook – i.e. laying off 10% of your corporate workforce – because, lord knows, he is going to need the wiggle room (and as many coat hangers as he can get his hands on).

Costco Will Emerge Unscathed From Holding True To Its Pro-DEI Position

Costco shareholders overwhelmingly (approximately 98% of them) voted down a measure in late January that urged Costco to assess the risk associated with its DEI practices. Costco’s leadership came out strongly against the measure, arguing that its “commitment to an enterprise rooted in respect and inclusion is appropriate and necessary."

Or said another way, Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not.

In my retail experience, the general impact of taking a strong position on something like this publicly is felt near the beginning of such an announcement and then the impact gradually settles over time. 

If that were the case, Costco would have felt the impact in February, but Costco’s recently announced results indicate otherwise.

In its most recent quarter, which ended on January 31, 2025, Costco’s U.S. comparable sales increased 8.7% excluding impacts from gas deflation, while in February, its comparable sales held strong at 8.6%, also excluding any impacts from gas.

I’m no mathematician but that is hardly a dip.

Costco is still experiencing year-over-year traffic patterns, particularly into February (more on that later), of which other retailers can only dream; its U.S. membership renewal rate sits right around 93%; and its Kirkland signature brand appears to be a great hedge against inflation in that it, according to Costco CFO Gary Millerchip, “continues to grow at a faster pace than our business as a whole.”

The Costco executive team also did not mention word one of any DEI impact on its financial results within its last earnings call, something of which Costco no doubt would be conscious of given the current legal and political climate.

No, for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine.

Sprouts Has Nowhere To Go But Up

Under CEO Jack Sinclair, Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype, bringing differentiation back to its assortment, and playing on the post-pandemic trend of consumers having a willingness to make that extra trip, as long as it is convenient for them (see below).

Sprouts also has a load of dry powder in its keg. For example, Sprouts still does not have a loyalty program (something it plans to launch in Q3 of this year) and only operates in 24 states. 

Or, put mildly, that right sized prototype that has been doing so well? The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts’ most recent quarter? 

It still has a lot more room to grow.

Macy’s First 50 Strategy May Be “Working” But 50 Is A Long Way From Chain

Macy’s new CEO Tony Spring loves to talk about the results Macy’s is seeing out of its “First 50” locations, i.e. the 50 locations Macy’s has designated to trial new innovations to improve its overall business. Examples of these innovations include things like: enhanced staffing in certain areas of the stores, modernized visual presentations, enhanced merchandising, or aka all the garden variety things anyone who has been around retail longer than three minutes would expect to see within a test of this kind.

In January, Macy’s reported that its First 50 stores delivered a +1.9% sales comp in Q3 2024, outpacing other Macy's stores by 4.1%, and that it planned to expand its First 50 initiative to another 75 stores over the course of 2025. 

All sounds great, right?

Not to me it doesn’t. 

First off, in its most recent quarter (Q4 2024), the spread between the First 50 stores and the rest of the Macy’s chain appears to have slipped. Executives reported a 1.2% comp in the First 50 stores against a 0.9% comp decline in its Macy’s nameplate stores. In isolation, this performance might look good on paper, but looking at it against the trend line, one could argue that the First 50 stores performed relatively worse in Q4 than the rest of the chain. The chain’s performance picked up, while the First 50’s fell off.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, I have been around retail long enough to know that one should take the results of tests like these with a fine grain of salt. Many factors can impact the performance of 50 stores, particularly when a new CEO has just taken the helm. The least of which is that everyone in the entire Macy’s organization knows the importance of these stores and, therefore, is likely extra committed to making sure they succeed. As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean.

And, the mean, which looks somewhere in the range of just shy of a -0.9% (at best) to a -6.0% comp (at worst) across the last two quarters, won’t keep the Macy’s Day parade balloons afloat come Thanksgiving time. 

Bloomie’s Is A Different Story

Fortunately, Bloomingdale’s is not Macy’s and vice versa. I say that because Bloomingdale’s, unlike Macy’s, could be onto something with its small format strategy.

According to Macy’s website, Bloomingdale’s has 33 full-sized U.S. store locations compared to Macy’s 479. 

That is quite the delta.

So much so, that one has to wonder if, similar to Sprouts above, small format Bloomie’s stores throughout the country (of which there are three currently in the U.S.) could become a significant growth vehicle for Bloomingdale’s.

I am on record as saying that when there are already 479 larger-sized Macy’s stores, the last thing anyone needs is a smaller Macy’s. That same logic, however, cannot be applied to Bloomingdale’s because only 33 Bloomingdale’s stores actually exist. The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale’s experience is like, let alone how to compare shopping at a bigger one versus a smaller one. Consumers generally prefer shopping at a store with a greater selection unless, of course, their next best option is no selection at all.

The data from the three smaller format Bloomie’s stores appears to prove this logic out (see below):

Year-over-year visit growth to Boomie’s stores across six of the last nine quarters has outpaced the general department store industry by a wide margin.

Granted, it is still only three stores, but the logic of the strategy is sound, provided Macy’s can operate these smaller Bloomie’s stores profitably (which is still a big unknown – and an issue that also plays into the Macy’s First 50 stores outlined above).

Target Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Target, my alma mater, so to speak, has been stuck in neutral since even before the pandemic began. 

I don’t know when or why it happened but, at some point, Target became myopic in its strategy, failing to look beyond its vaunted “owned brands” for growth. While others, like Walmart, were evolving with the times, Target stood flat footed and failed to adapt its Expect More, Pay Less brand promise to the needs of its 21st century, digital-first consumer.

Make no mistake: Target’s former beachheads are now all under siege. 

Its higher income demographic shoppers are moving to Walmart because of Walmart’s much stronger competitive positioning of Walmart+; fast fashion players like Shein and Temu are stealing share in apparel; the club channel is more formidable than ever; and Wayfair (more on that in a minute) is now the go-to online source for home furnishings. Taken together, it all means less trips into a Target store over the long-term.

A lot less trips.

But that is just the digital impact. Merchandising execution and in-stocks continue to plague the retailer as well, with many people both in and outside of the organization asking if it isn’t time for Target to return to office, similar to Walmart, Amazon and many others before them.

Something is causing the temperature of Target’s porridge to feel just not quite right (see traffic patterns below). Could it be that the goldilocks shine of CEO Brian Cornell’s strategy to wait by the wayside as other retailers started going out of business is starting to wear off? 

Cornell, himself, in Target’s most recent earnings call, lauded the $30 billion of additional revenue Target has gained since 2019, but how much of that was pure inflation and inertia given the bankruptcies of Toys R Us, Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and many, many more? 

A new alarming feature is what appears to be a precipitous decline in February, corroborated by what Target CFO Brian Lee called “soft” topline performance for the month in the aforementioned earnings call. 

Target did not mention its recent DEI rollback as a possible rationale for its slow February, citing instead things like “extreme cold” and “flood and fires,” but the prospect of a 40-day boycott in response to the rollback sure as heck won’t make things any easier.

Target has its work cut out for it, to say the least. Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook that Target has espoused ever since Cornell took over.

And that owned brand well, in relation to the competitive issues outlined above, is done and dried up.

Wayfair May Be Investing In Stores At Exactly The Right Time

Wayfair announced in January 2025 that it was planning to exit Germany. According to Retail Dive, Wayfair said that it “plans to reinvest cost savings from backing out of Germany into expanding its physical retail footprint.”

After many (what some might call, or at least I would) failed attempts at smaller physical store concepts, Wayfair opened a 150,000 square foot mega store just outside of Chicago. From the looks of the data below, this larger store concept, one of which I have also been a big fan of for sometime now, appears to be showing encouraging signs.

Moreover, the home furnishings industry also appears to be on a bit of a rebound. Traffic to home furnishings players appears to be picking up (see below) and Home Depot just posted its first positive comp quarter after eight consecutive quarterly declines. 

Wayfair’s CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back. 

Is it a coincidence then that Wayfair just announced the launch of its second large format store in Atlanta?

I think I think not.

Starbucks May Already Be Righting The Ship

New CEO Brian Niccol took the helm in September of last year and wasted no time in establishing his priorities. Put simply, Niccol wanted to reignite the “third place” atmosphere of Starbucks and ensure that all in-store customers get served their orders in under four minutes or less. 

Early results look promising.

While Starbucks’ same-store sales did decline by 4% during the last quarter, this figure still beat Wall Street estimates, which, according to CNBC, had predicted a 5.5% drop. 

Traffic data also supports Niccol’s moves (see below).

Lord knows, it’s early here, too, and the February traffic decline is definitely something to watch. But, given that Niccol has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround. 

Unless of course, you are a regular Frappaccino drinker – because then you are probably pissed.

Sam’s Club Is The Retailer More People Should Be Talking About

For the past six years, Sam’s Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon. It is an award well-deserved for a number of reasons. 

First, Sam’s Club has been on a winning streak. In its most recent quarter, Sam’s Club delivered a 6.8% sales comp, excluding fuel.

Second, Sam’s Club has seen explosive growth in digital both online and in-store. E-commerce sales were up over 24% in the last quarter, and the use of its scan and go shopping app hit an all-time high during the same period. This last statistic might not sound like much, but the Sam’s Club executives I have interviewed on multiple occasions have all told me that 1 in 3 shoppers regularly use their scan and go app. 

1 in 3! 

I am going to go out on a limb here but my guess is that Costco’s mobile app usage is nowhere near that high, particularly in-store.

Third, Sam’s Club is also winning with young people. Sam's Club has reported record highs in membership numbers and renewal rates, with particularly strong growth among Gen Z (63% over two years) and millennials (14% over two years).

The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam’s Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there. 

Retail media anyone?

I say that in jest but the profit-enhancing effects of retail media are real (see Walmart), and Sam’s Club has created a visual menu board to serve up advertisements to one-third of its shoppers right as they are standing at the shelf. Can Costco or anyone else for that matter do that?

Not nearly to the same degree.

Concluding Thoughts

There you have it. All the things I think I think about retail over the last quarter, and in no particular order of importance. 

So, I ask you in closing – what do you think of what I think?