Placer Research

Visits Rise, Markets Diverge

The return-to-office debate sometimes feels like it’s stuck on repeat. Employers tighten attendance rules, workers push back – or look for loopholes – and around it goes. 

But amid the noise, real progress is being made on the ground. In H1 2026, nationwide office visits grew 6.0% year over year (YoY) and the post-pandemic gap narrowed to its slimmest margin yet.

That national number, though, is an average of increasingly different stories. The same 6.0% contains a Miami sitting within striking distance of 2019, a San Francisco gaining momentum, and a Denver still trailing; a Dallas where roughly one in seven office visits happens on a Friday and a Chicago where it's barely one in ten; a New York where almost half of all visits now come from within five miles and a Houston where it's just a quarter.

This report examines office recovery trends across 11 major U.S. markets, exploring where attendance is gaining fastest, and how hybrid workweeks and commute patterns differ by city.

Back in Acceleration Mode

Key Insights From this Section: 

• Nationwide office visits grew 6.0% YoY in H1 2026, narrowing the gap with H1 2019 to 31.2%.

In H1 2026, nationwide office visits grew 6.0% YoY, a marked acceleration from the 1.9% YoY increase recorded in H1 2025. Total visits remained 31.2% below H1 2019 levels – the narrowest H1 gap since the pandemic began, and a notable improvement from -35.1% in H1 2025.

Local Realities Shape Regional Markets

Key Insights From this Section: 

• Macro trends masked significant divergence across markets. 
• Sunbelt markets Miami, Dallas, and Atlanta – along with New York – remained closest to their pre-pandemic office visit levels.
• West Coast markets posted the fastest YoY growth, while slower markets such as Washington, D.C. and Denver continued to recover at a more gradual pace.

Sunbelt Leaders Ride a Corporate Relocation Wave.

Miami remained the nation's standout market in H1 2026, sitting closest to its 2019 baseline (-11.5%) while also continuing to post above-average YoY growth (+7.7%). Although the broader metro area lost population last year, the city itself is growing, and an ongoing wave of corporate relocations likely helped draw more workers into local offices. 

Atlanta and Dallas also outpaced the nationwide recovery baseline, buoyed by their own steady stream of corporate moves. And though Dallas’ YoY growth came in slightly below the nationwide average at 5.4%, the Texas hub has less ground left to recover than most markets.

Finance-heavy New York Stays Ahead. 

After Miami, New York (-15.8% vs. 2019) sat closest to its pre-pandemic baseline of any market tracked in H1 2026. Office visits in the city grew another 4.0% YoY – below the +6.0% national rate, but consistent with a market building on substantial earlier gains. New York’s advantage is supported by its concentration of finance firms, many of which were early adopters of strict return-to-office policies.

The West Coast Mounts a Late Surge. 

Los Angeles and San Francisco lagged nationwide recovery rates vs. 2019 in H1 2026 – but the two cities posted the fastest year-over-year gains in the nation. For LA (+13.0% YoY), much of that momentum reflects recovery from a bruising H1 2025, when January's wildfires and June's downtown unrest likely weighed on office visits. In San Francisco (+10.9% YoY), an influx of artificial intelligence startups and venture capital has fueled downtown leasing activity, helping pull workers back into a market that remained 41.4% below 2019 levels in H1 2026. 

Every Market Is Moving Forward.

All other markets analyzed – including Boston, Chicago, and Houston – also posted YoY growth in H1 2026, with Chicago outpacing the nationwide benchmark at 6.9% YoY. Even remote-friendly Denver, which ranked last in its recovery relative to 2019, recorded a 3.3% YoY increase. Washington, D.C., meanwhile, posted the nation’s slowest annual growth at 3.0% – perhaps due in part to a sluggish job market. 

The Workweek Bends Locally

Key Insights From this Section: 

• The nationwide office week remained concentrated around a midweek core, with Tuesday visits down just 19.3% compared to H1 2019.
• Friday office attendance varied considerably across markets. 

The Hybrid Week Holds

Hybrid work was still the name of the game in H1 2026. Tuesday remained the busiest day of the week, sitting just 19.3% below 2019 levels. Wednesday (-24.2%) and Thursday (-28.7%) rounded out the mid-week core, while Monday (-34.7%) continued to lag and Friday remained down more than 50%.

And though every weekday’s post-pandemic gap narrowed in H1 2026, the gains were uneven. Tuesday saw the biggest YoY jumps, followed by Wednesday and Thursday, while Monday and Friday saw only modest increases.

Friday’s Fade Varies by Market

Here too, the precise contours of the hybrid week varied significantly by market.

In some cities, Friday attendance largely mirrored the broader recovery. Miami and Dallas, for example – both among the leading recovery markets – recorded the nation’s highest Friday visit shares, with Atlanta also posting above-average Friday attendance. By contrast, markets with deeper overall visit deficits relative to 2019, including Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco, had some of the lowest Friday shares.

In other markets, however, Friday attendance appears to have reflected distinctly local conditions. New York, for example, combined a strong overall recovery with a relatively soft Friday share of just 11.9% – perhaps as commuters sought to avoid  long regional-rail journeys heading into the weekend.

Houston, by contrast, posted a lower Friday share than its overall recovery might suggest, likely due in part to the energy industry’s fondness for compressed “9/80” schedules that grant alternating Fridays off. That practice may also help explain why Houston’s Friday share was already relatively low in H1 2019.

The Power of Proximity

Key Insights From this Section: 

• Visits originating within five miles of the office continued to recover fastest and posted the strongest YoY growth in H1 2026.
• Dense markets such as San Francisco, New York, and Chicago saw the greatest shift toward nearby visits, while sprawling Houston saw relatively little change.

Short Commutes Lead the Recovery

Nationwide, short commutes remained a key driver of the office recovery in H1 2026, extending a trend seen in earlier years. In H1 2026, these nearby visits also posted the fastest YoY growth – likely reflecting more frequent office attendance among employees with shorter, easier commutes.

Urban Density Drives Nearby Visits

Once again, however, the strength of this shift varied considerably by market. San Francisco led both in its share of close-by visits, at 48.1%, and in the growth of that share since H1 2019. The city's AI boom likely played a role here as well – the young startups driving the current leasing wave tend to favor in-person work and cluster in neighborhoods like Hayes Valley's "Cerebral Valley," where employees often live within walking distance of their desks. 

Chicago (41.5%) and New York (45.3%) also ranked near the top. In these dense transit cities, urban-core residents account for a growing share of office traffic, while visits from suburban commuters remain more subdued. By contrast, the geography of office visits changed relatively little in sprawling, auto-centric Houston.

All News is Local

Halfway through 2026, the return-to-office push is still very much under way. New mandates keep coming into effect – a majority of Fortune 100 companies now require five days a week at a desk – and badge swipes have quietly become a performance metric. 

But the national trend tells only part of the story. The pace and shape of the recovery still vary widely by market, reflecting differences in commuting patterns, urban form, industry mix, and local office policies. The next phase of the office recovery is therefore unlikely to follow a single national script – attendance may continue to rise broadly, but where it rises fastest will depend increasingly on the particulars of each market.

Explore how higher gas prices, the search for value, and nostalgia-driven demand shaped consumer traffic and behavior in H1 2026.

What Impacted Consumer Traffic in H1 2026? 

The first half of 2026 put consumers to the test. Gas prices climbed sharply year over year, inflation picked back up, and economic uncertainty weighed on discretionary budgets. AI-powered location analytics show how visit patterns shifted in response, and which formats came out ahead.

1. Gas Hikes Test Consumer Resilience 

Perhaps the biggest story of H1 2026 was the rapid rise in gas prices across the country. How did higher costs at the pump shape consumer traffic? 

Rising Gas Costs Hit Dining Harder Than Retail

Through early 2026, retail and dining visits tracked closely. But as gas prices and inflation accelerated into the spring, the two diverged, with dining slipping into sustained declines while retail remained modestly positive.

Metro-level Trends Suggest Link Between Rising Gas Prices and Weaker Dining Demand

A closer look at metro-level dining traffic reinforces the connection between rising fuel costs and softer food-away-from-home demand. Analyzing the relationship between changes in gas prices across the 10 metro areas tracked by the EIA and the year-over-year (YoY) change in monthly restaurant visits reveals a clear pattern. Markets with the largest gas price increases generally experienced the weakest dining Miami was a notable exception, likely benefiting from strong tourism and seasonal migration.

Pain at the Pump Hit Long-Distance Destination Retail Hardest 

Retail has proven more resilient than dining in H1 2026, but shoppers have not been indifferent to higher transportation costs. Even as overall retail traffic continued to grow through the first half of the year, consumers recalibrated their shopping trips – adjusting which outings they prioritized and how far they were willing to travel. 

When gas prices first spiked in March, for example, discretionary retail visits fell YoY across distance bands, while non-discretionary traffic remained positive. But longer-distance discretionary trips took the hardest hit, while visits from less than 10 miles away saw just a modest YoY dip. Then, as the initial sticker shock began to fade in April, close-to-home visits led the discretionary rebound, while the 30+ mile band hovered near flat.

Non-discretionary retail visits, meanwhile, rose YoY across distance bands. But while short-distance trips overperformed for discretionary chains, they lagged for essentials. This suggests that consumers may have cut back on convenience-oriented runs and instead traveled farther for planned stock-up trips or lower-cost shopping destinations.

Higher Gas Prices Didn't Lead to More Consolidated Shopping Trips

One possible explanation for essential retail’s resilience – especially for longer-distance trips – is that consumers consolidated errands into fewer, longer shopping outings. But analyzing retail visitation patterns suggests that even if shoppers were combining more stops into a single trip, they appear to have spent less time in each individual store.

Comparing monthly average visit duration and monthly visit numbers for the Placer 100 Retail Index shows that average visit duration edged down even as overall retail visits remained above year-ago levels. This indicates that shoppers continued making trips but kept each store visit shorter and more targeted rather than lingering or browsing at length. 

Consumers Adapted Rather Than Pulled Back

Higher gas prices reshaped consumer behavior without bringing retail activity to a halt. Rather than shopping less, consumers became more selective about where they traveled, what they prioritized, and which trips were worth the added cost.

2. Clear Value Proposition Continued to Drive Traffic 

As consumers became more selective about which trips justified the added cost, they also became more deliberate in their pursuit of value. But in H1 2026, value did not always mean the cheapest option. Whether through discounted fuel, premium dining that felt worth the splurge, affordable treats, or well-timed promotions, the strongest-performing brands all gave consumers a compelling reason to spend.

Visit Gains For Retailers Selling Discounted Gas 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, lower-priced gas proved a particularly powerful draw in H1 2026 as fuel costs rose – providing a clear tailwind for wholesale clubs, which typically offer cheaper fuel than traditional gas stations. Fuel centers at Costco, Sam's Club, and BJ's Wholesale Club posted strong YoY visit gains beginning in March 2026, when gas prices first spiked. And although growth moderated as prices eased, history suggests wholesale clubs are well positioned to convert at least some of these fuel-driven visits into longer-term customer relationships.

Clear Value Propositions Drove Traffic Growth 

Other retail and dining segments also grew traffic despite the macroeconomic headwinds by delivering compelling value propositions. For off-price and thrift retailers, that meant meaningful savings relative to full-price competitors. Elsewhere, brands differentiated through experiences that justified the expense, as in fine dining, or through affordable indulgences that let consumers treat themselves without overspending. 

Sales & Discounts Still Driving Visit Spikes 

Even with discretionary budgets under pressure, promotions across retail and dining – from Bass Pro Shops' Father's Day Sale to Krispy Kreme's St. Patrick's Day giveaway – continued to generate meaningful traffic gains. This suggests that, despite shifting consumer behavior, promotions are still one of the most dependable traffic levers, with shoppers still willing to visit when brands offer a compelling reason to do so.

Value Came in Many Forms

H1 2026 showed that value extended well beyond low prices. Whether through discounted fuel, premium experiences, affordable indulgences, or compelling promotions, the brands that won were those that gave consumers a clear reason to spend.

3. Nostalgia Created Momentum for Brands Ready to Capitalize

Unlike value, which influenced traffic across much of retail and dining, nostalgia was a more targeted but highly effective traffic driver for brands positioned to capitalize on it. From viral social moments celebrating legacy restaurant formats to renewed interest in early-2000s mall brands, consumers gravitated toward familiar names and experiences. Brands that successfully tapped into that sentiment saw the payoff in their visit data.

Shopping Center Traffic Boost Coincided with Renewed Interest in Aughts Brands

The nostalgia wave appears to be lifting the venues where those heritage brands live. After starting 2025 in negative territory, quarterly visits to shopping centers improved steadily throughout the year and accelerated into 2026, with Q1 and Q2 each running more than 2% above prior-year levels – the strongest quarters in the period analyzed. The timing coincides with renewed consumer interest in aughts-era mall staples returning to the cultural spotlight, suggesting that Gen-Z's nostalgia for popular 90s and 2000s brands may be helping boost mall traffic.

Organic Social Buzz Fueled Traffic to Pizza Hut Classic Locations

Pizza Hut has spent the past several years preserving and restoring select legacy restaurants as official "Classic" locations, reviving iconic features like red roofs, Tiffany-style lamps, and checkered tablecloths to celebrate the brand's heritage. Yet despite the investment, these locations spent much of 2025 underperforming the broader chain. But fueled by organic social buzz celebrating their retro appeal – and reinforced by Pizza Hut's promotion of the Classic format – visits to these locations now significantly outpace the chain average. 

With Yum! now selling Pizza Hut as part of a broader turnaround, the renewed appeal of these legacy restaurants suggests the brand's heritage could become one of its most distinctive competitive assets. 

Barnes & Noble Is Gaining Even More Momentum 

Barnes & Noble may have been the original heritage brand comeback story, and its continued strength in H1 2026 suggests the nostalgia wave has yet to reach its peak. Although the bookseller posted positive YoY visit growth in every month of the period analyzed, the pace picked up in 2026. Visits ran more than 13.0% above prior-year levels in the last three months of H1 2026 – an acceleration that is particularly notable given the already elevated 2025 baseline. 

The chain's playbook – community-oriented stores, localized curation, and an experience built around browsing – shows that brick-and-mortar concepts once written off can not only stabilize but compound growth when the offering matches what consumers are seeking.

Nostalgia Still Has Room to Run

Nostalgia wasn't simply about looking backward – it rewarded brands that reintroduced familiar experiences in ways that resonated with today's consumers. The continued momentum behind Barnes & Noble suggests that trend may still have further to run.

The Traffic Playbook for a Selective Consumer

H1 2026 tested consumers with higher gas prices, renewed inflation, and persistent economic uncertainty – and consumers adapted their behavior accordingly. Visits shifted closer to home, dining bore more of the pullback than retail, and value became the clearest predictor of traffic growth. But H1 2026 also showed that consumers are still willing to show up for a compelling deal, a well-timed promotion, or a brand that taps into genuine cultural affection. 

For retailers, restaurant operators, property owners, and investors alike, the winners of H1 2026 shared a common thread – a clear answer to the question "why is this trip worth it?" As macroeconomic pressures persist into the second half, that question - and the traffic data that answers it – will only grow more important.

The Geography of Domestic Migration

During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.

That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand. 

This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts. 

Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?

Interstate Flows: Which States Gained and Lost Residents?

South Carolina and Delaware Set the Pace

The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.

Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady. 

Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.

Vermont Trails Behind

At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time. 

Florida Sees Accelerated Inflow as Legacy Exodus States Slow Losses

Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.

Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.

Major Insights:

• Smaller states dominated migration gains in 2025, led by South Carolina, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
• Vermont posted the nation's largest outflow after attracting strong inflows just a few years earlier.
• Florida was the only top-population state to see meaningful net in-migration in 2025.
• Texas' migration boom continued to cool, with net in-migration falling to flat in 2025.
• Outmigration from New York, Illinois, and California is slowing, but these states are still losing residents overall.

Zooming In: Net Migration Across Metro Boundaries

Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.

Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.

Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston. 

Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024. 

Major Insights:

• Phoenix was the nation's top large-metro migration destination in 2025.
• Dallas gained momentum while Houston lost ground, highlighting growing divergence within Texas.
• Miami continued to post the largest outflows among major metros despite Florida's broader migration success.
• The Los Angeles, Chicago, and the New York metro areas all saw migration losses ease.

Florida Dominates Large Metros

Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide. 

Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub. 

Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.

Major Insights:

• Mid-sized Florida metros dominate the national migration leaderboard.
• Florida's migration pipeline is overwhelmingly driven by in-state movement.

The Affordability Factor

The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.

In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.

The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.

While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.

Major Insights:

• Most high-growth metros attract residents from more expensive housing markets.
• Relative affordability continues to be a primary driver of domestic migration.

Demographics Over Dollars

But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate. 

Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.

The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.

The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.

Major Insights:

• People are moving to older, more established communities. 
• Markets with larger 65+ populations are attracting more domestic relocators.

The New Migration Map: Strategic Implications

The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.

To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should: 

1. Monitor smaller states gaining migration momentum. Among the nation's most populous states, only Florida saw (modest) net in-migration in 2025. By contrast, smaller states like South Carolina, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Tennessee, and North Carolina continued to attract substantial inflow. Investors, retailers, and developers that monitor these patterns may be better positioned to identify emerging growth opportunities.
2. Invest ahead of growth. Vermont's reversal shows how important it is for housing supply and infrastructure to keep pace with demand. High-growth communities will also need the retail, healthcare, transportation, and service capacity required to support expanding populations.
3. Look beyond state-level narratives that can obscure local opportunities. Florida led the nation in fast-growing large metros even as Miami lost residents, while Texas saw Dallas gain momentum as Houston fell behind. Likewise, although Arizona was not a top destination state, Phoenix remained the nation's leading major metro for migration gains.
4. Treat states as migration ecosystems. In Florida, for example, domestic migration is increasingly redistributed across a network of interconnected metros – as costs rise in one market, residents shift to nearby alternatives. Tracking these spillover effects can help identify tomorrow's growth markets before they show up in the rankings.
5. Don't write off major urban markets. While New York, Los Angeles, and Miami continue to experience net outflows – and Chicago has yet to return to positive territory – migration losses have moderated substantially from their pandemic-era peaks. As these markets stabilize, investments in livability, affordability, and quality of life could help strengthen their long-term competitiveness and economic vitality.
6. Protect affordability as a competitive advantage. Across the nation's fastest-growing metros, migration flows continue to move from more expensive housing markets to less expensive ones. As demand rises, preserving attainable housing will be critical to maintaining the cost advantages that attract new residents and businesses.
7. Prepare for a retiree-driven demographic realignment. Older Americans are playing an outsized role in shaping domestic migration patterns, but the communities attracting them are increasingly appealing to a broader range of households as well. As these markets grow, demand is likely to increase for healthcare, recreation, hospitality, and housing, creating opportunities across a wide range of sectors.