Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Can A New Dinner Menu Catapult Panera To Fast Casual Dominance?

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
June 27, 2019
Can A New Dinner Menu Catapult Panera To Fast Casual Dominance?

Panera Bread, part of the JAB Holding Company, is making a strong move to increase visits by launching a new dinner menu. The fast-casual brand known for salads and sandwiches described the decision as an attempt to widen their reach beyond their current lunchtime focus.

In the words of Dan Wegiel, Panera’s Chief of Growth and Strategy, "when you look at where they're coming to us, it is still disproportionately lunch. There's probably a diminishing return of how many more lunch occasions we can get."

We dug into data from the fast-casual giant to see where the gaps lie and how the coming evening focus could impact performance.

Panera’s Midday Strength

We looked at Panera’s visits from June 2018 through June 2019 and found that the brand has maintained steady performance nationally over the last year. Apart from significant decreases on holidays - July 4th, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Easter - Panera sees consistent visits to their locations. Indicating a company that creates food with ongoing and regular appeal.

Panera visits nationwide compared to the baseline for the period from June 1 2018 to June 2019

Yet, as suggested, the company does see the largest amount of foot traffic in the lunchtime period. 34.8% of all visits to Panera come between 12:00 and 3:00pm. But to get a true sense of the brands' strengths and weaknesses, we need to compare to other players in the space.

Distribution of visits by hour of day

Evening Fast Casual Distribution

We first compared Panera with another fast-casual giant Chipotle and found that both saw very similar visit trends when compared with their respective baselines for the period.

Visits to Panera (Blue) and Chipotle (Red) compared to their baseline for the period

Yet, digging deeper revealed very significant differences that point to the powerful opportunity available to Panera. Because Panera can effectively serve a morning audience as well, the chain sees over 25% of their daily traffic come between 8:00am to 12:00pm. This is more than 3 times higher than Chipotle, who is dependant on lunch and dinner because of the nature of their menu. Panera also sees an average visit duration that is 26.2% longer than Chipotles.

Percentage of Panera (Blue) and Chipotle (Red) visits by hour of day

All Day Giants

And this points to the particularly exciting opportunity that exists for Panera’s dinner menu - the capacity to turn the brand into an all-day location that can effectively serve an audience morning, noon and night. To find a company that effectively maximizes the full day, we had to go beyond the Fast Casual domain and look into one of the dominant Fast Food players - McDonald's. McDonalds sees a steady level of visits throughout the day from morning until evening. From 9:00am until 9:00pm, no single hour sees less than 4.9% of daily traffic or more than 9.4%. Comparatively, Panera sees a lunchtime peak that rises to 13.4% of all traffic and bottom of 3.5% in that same 9:00am to 9:00pm period.  

Percentage breakdown of Panera and McDonalds visits by hour of day

Why? Because McDonald's has effectively developed a diverse product line that can be consumed throughout the day. This contributes heavily to the fast food giant’s dominance, but also hints at the incredible potential for Panera.

Panera - The King of Fast Casual?

To repeat the words of Panera executive Dan Wegiel “there's probably a diminishing return of how many more lunch occasions we can get." This was the motivation for the brand to expand into a new area of focus with a dinner menu. Should the process succeed, it would empower Panera with a unique capacity to drive visits throughout the day - an appeal reminiscent of the giants of Fast Food.

Yet, Panera has an added weapon sitting in the Fast Casual domain. Unlike Fast Food players or even their Fast Casual competitors, the morning to night appeal is combined with an average duration that beats out pure lunch/dinner offerings. Having a strong breakfast, coffee, and pastry appeal extends the reach of Panera into the morning and early afternoon as an ideal place for a meeting or midday coffee or snack.

The result is a brand that is demonstrating a unique capacity to not only drive visits but to continuously push the envelope to extend its reach.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Why Are Specialty Grocers Thriving in 2023?
The CAVA Craze: A Location Intelligence Perspective on the Mediterranean Marvel
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?
Northeastern USA Grocery Dive
Movie Theaters Storylines for 2023
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Discounters are Evolving
Leveraging Brick-and-Mortar Retail in 2023
America’s Evolving Work Patterns: A Deep-Dive into New York and Chicago
Placer.ai Mall Index March 2023
Tuning Into Record Stores
Five Franchises To Watch in 2023
What’s Next For Domestic Tourism?
It’s Showtime! Movie Theaters in the Spotlight
5 Limited Time Offers (LTOs) Driving Restaurant Traffic
Department Store Deep-Dive: Belk
Regional Grocery Chains Staying Ahead of the Competition
Five Chains that Rightsized for Success
Unlocking the Potential of Offline Retail Media Networks
Dining Out With Darden
What’s in Store for Self-Storage?
Nike & lululemon Update: Strong Performance Amid Expansion Plans
Many Ways to Win: Midwest Grocery Deep Dive
Retail, Reinvented: The Rise of the Pop-Up Shop
Navigating a New Normal in Business Travel & Commutes
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2023 Recap
Retail Categories Staying Strong in Volatile Environment
Ulta Beauty: Poised for Success into 2023
Placer.ai Mall Index February 2023: Reasons for Continued Optimism
Catching Up With DICK’s & Hibbett
The Miami-Dade Arena: An Advertising Slam Dunk
Car Washes Revving Up Visits
Tuesday Morning and Sunrises in Home Furnishing
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap
2023: The Year of the Discount Store
Aldi’s Success Highlights Growing Demand for Value Groceries
5 Retail & Service Categories Holding onto Pandemic Gains in 2023
Visitor Insights from Super Bowl 2023
2023 First Look: Home Improvement Update
How Are Target, Walmart, and Wholesale Clubs Faring in 2023?
Department Store Deep-Dive: Nordstrom
Off-Price: Taking Off in Uncertain Times
Checking in On Middle-Class Hubs
Who Attends the Super Bowl?
Placer.ai Office Index: January 2023 Recap
Focusing On Fitness: Q4 and January Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: January 2023 – Returning Mall Normalcy?
Location Intelligence Insights Into Concert Attendance
Winning Dining Strategies for 2023
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Location Intelligence Breakdown: Coffee Caps-Off 2022
Digitally Native Brands Lean Into Brick & Mortar
Washington, D.C. Population Changes & Migration Trends
A Location Intelligence Perspective on Macy’s Rightsizing
Amazon-Powered Shopping: The Future of Brick-and-Mortar Grocery?
Cold Weather, Hot Visits: Diving into Winter Resorts
Wawa and 7-Eleven: Leaning Into the “Slurpee Effect”
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle
Let’s Have Some Fun! Going Out Is In
Placer.ai’s Q4 2022 Quarterly Index
Placer.ai Adds Industry Executives to Leadership Team To Drive Company's Next Phase of Growth
5 Emerging Retail Formats: 2023’s Brick-and-Mortar Evolution
Grocery Update: Zooming in on the Lone Star State
2022 Office Recap: The Year of the TGIF Work Week
What Lies Ahead for Brick-and-Mortar Luxury in 2023
Placer.ai Mall Indexes: December 2022 Recap
Looking Back on 2022’s Holiday Shopping Season
Post-Pandemic Migration Trends in New York
Top Retailers for 2023
The Live Sports Advertising Opportunity
Domestic Migration to the Mountain States: Small Shifts with Big Implications
New Year, New Food: 5 Dining Trends For 2023
Announcing Placer.ai’s COVID RECOVERY DASHBOARD
This is Why Shop-in-Shops Are Everywhere
Super Saturday 2022 Recap