Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Houston Bounceback

by 
Tali Rozenman
 on 
April 9, 2020
Houston Bounceback

In times of crisis, we tend to look to the past to see if there are any lessons we can apply to the current situation. So, how have we recovered from significant falls in the recent past, and what could this mean for the coming months? 

We dove into the data surrounding Hurricane Harvey, ranked the second-most costly hurricane to hit the US since 1900. The hurricane struck Texas Friday night, August 25th and reached the city of Houston just two days later, causing unprecedented flooding. With a focus on a few key sectors in the Houston area, we explored visit patterns to understand how each of these sectors reacted and rebounded. 

Hard Hit, Fast Return

Expectedly, diving into a few chains within key industries like Grocery, QSR, Fitness and Apparel, similar trends emerge for the duration of the hurricane. There is a clear and significant dip during the last week of August, followed by a fairly quick recovery, with traffic stabilizing around Labor Day. 

Malls Feel Decline Early

While, for the most part, all sectors saw their biggest drop during the week of August 28th through September 3rd, 2017, followed by signs of recovery, malls and shopping centers actually experienced an earlier significant drop. 

For all three centers analyzed, The Plaza, The Galleria and River Oaks Shopping Center, the second to last week of August was just as weak, if not weaker, than the last week of August. The Plaza, the southernmost of the three locations, experienced its lowest-traffic week from the 21st to 27th, with a 53% drop below baseline. Perhaps in times of heightened danger, mall shopping is regarded as a “nice to have” rather than an essential, like grocery shopping. 

Impressively, once visits did return, they seemed to find a normal stride growing through the eventual peaks during the holiday season.

Interestingly, in the first weeks of the coronavirus, the same pattern was observed. Malls were again one of the earliest sectors hit, and while they are currently in a state of nearly full closure, this data suggests that the bounceback could be very rapid.

Fitness and QSR Rebound Fast

One of the standards for the fitness center industry is that January visits peak amid a rush of New Year’s Resolutions before slowly, and then not so slowly, plummeting as the year progresses. Yet, it appears that being forced to stay at home can actually create a mini-peak.

Analyzing three gyms in the Houston area showed that the decline may have created a renewed vigor to get in shape. For all three, massive declines during the week prior to and during the hurricane pushed traffic to annual lows, but the weeks that followed created growth not normally seen during that time of year. While traffic did eventually return to a normal downward trend through late 2017, it does create an indication that gyms may enjoy a fairly substantial bounceback when social distancing restrictions are removed.

QSR restaurants also showed a major dip in the final week of August, stabilizing and returning to growth the following week. Again, there are strong indications that this is a sector that could return to high levels of performance quickly once a sense of normalcy returns.

Grocery Resilience 

The Grocery sector stands out as a pillar of preparing for a crisis, so expectations were that the sector could see a peak prior to the hurricane. And looking at a Houston Kroger showed exactly that. The location saw a distinct and significant peak on August 24th, just a day before the hurricane officially hit Texas. With growth of 116.7% above the baseline for the period, it marked the highest traffic day for this location in 2017. Even on August 25th, when Harvey had already made landfall in Texas, visits were up 71.3% above baseline as customers rushed to stock up on necessities.

Whole Foods’ and Trader Joes’ traffic tell a similar story with Thursday, the 24th marking a major peak for 2017. The visits for all chains also returned to a positive baseline growth by September 3rd, showing a fairly quick turnaround. Clearly, people saw their window of opportunity to stock up on supplies shrinking, and ventured out right up until the hurricane’s official arrival in the area. 

For Whole Foods, Walmart and Trader Joe’s, the week of August 28th was the lowest, or one of the lowest-performing weeks of the year. But Kroger showed an entirely different picture, with a 14% increase in visits as a result of the Thursday and Friday peaks, followed by a speedier recovery with a 60% growth over baseline visits on August 30th. Yet, assuredly, once the hurricane had passed, normal visit patterns returned.

Takeaways

In Hurricane Harvey’s case, through geography seems to have played a role in the magnitude of the impact, all sectors recovered quickly despite the enormous amount of damage inflicted. While we can never downplay the emotional and economical burden that individuals and families face in times of tragedy, we must state the obvious -  people are resilient and have a powerful capacity to recover from difficult situations. Even when their routines were abruptly interrupted, Houston residents found ways to return to business as usual often faster than expected. Grocery chains, as seen both with Harvey and with COVID-19, often flourish in times of greatest need, while the other sectors still manage to get back on their feet. Though every crisis is different, the desire to get back to regular life is a constant that will continue to propel retail forward even in the hardest of times. 

Check back in at the Placer.ai blog as we continue to look at past data and what it can teach us about overcoming the COVID-19 crisis. 

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: September 2023 Recap
Placer Mall Index Recap: September 2023
September White Paper Recap
The Consumer Habits of College Students
JCPenney: Rightsizing and Revitalizing
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Placer.ai Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective
Moving the Market: The Impact of Domestic Migration on Housing Costs
Post-Pandemic Museum Update
The Darden-est Things