Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle

by 
Bracha Arnold
 on 
January 18, 2023
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle

When we last checked in with McDonald’s and Chipotle, both were outpacing their category peers and introducing new initiatives to help drive foot traffic and sales. With 2022 in the rearview, we dove into the quarterly performance of both chains and consider what might lie ahead for them in 2023.

Visits On the Up and Up

McDonald’s and Chipotle enjoyed impressive foot traffic growth all months analyzed. Much of this success is tied to the expansion both chains have undergone – Chipotle has grown from around 2,500 stores in 2019 to nearly 3,100 in 2022, and plans on opening an additional 250 locations in 2023. And McDonald’s, which is experiencing impressive sales growth, is leaning into automation for its planned expansion

The strength of these brands is even more impressive when compared to the recent performance of the wider QSR and fast casual dining categories. Consumers are increasingly conscious of how they spend their money, with many choosing to dine out less frequently than they previously may have – and restaurants are feeling the effects of these decisions. 

The QSR segment was down 11.1% and 10.4% in Q3 and Q4 2022 compared to the equivalent quarters in 2019. Meanwhile, McDonald’s – undisputed QSR leader – saw its visits elevated by 13.3% and 26.2%, respectively, for the same period. Chipotle, too, saw outperformance, with its visits exceeding the fast-casual segment in a year-over-three-year (Yo3Y, 2022 vs 2019) comparison. Visits to Chipotle grew by 66.2% and 28.7% in Q3 and Q4 2022 compared to the same quarters in 2019, while the fast-casual category saw its visits shrink by 18.9% and 27.2% in the same period.

Industry Leaders Cementing Their Roles

Year-over-year (YoY, 2022 vs 2021) foot traffic trends only strengthened these chains' position as industry leaders. As QSR-wide visit patterns remain subdued, McDonald's' growth remained noteworthy, with Q4 visits to the chain up 29.4% YoY compared to the 0.6% dip for the QSR category. The company’s growth relative to its wider segment may be partially due to the post-COVID effect – many dining chains rightsized or shuttered locations over the pandemic, leaving giants like McDonald’s to benefit from the reduced competition and market consolidation. 

Chipotle also continued outperforming the fast-casual segment on a YoY basis while exceeding its own 2021 foot traffic in nearly all quarters of the year – and the California-based company is leaning into innovation to continue building its strength. Chipotle has invested heavily in Chipotlanes, or fully digital drive-thrus – of the 43 locations it opened in Q3 2022, 38 had Chipotlanes, positioning the company to continue catering to consumers looking for an omnichannel dining experience. Chipotle is also expanding into smaller markets, where audiences are highly responsive and overhead is lower.

Cross-Dining Increasing 

Most notably, cross-dining data reveals that there is room at the top for multiple dining leaders. Between Q4 2019 and Q4 2022, the percentage of each chain’s diners that also visited the other chain increased – indicating that the success these companies are enjoying is not coming at the expense of the other. 

McDonald's, boasting over 13,000 locations, unsurprisingly saw a larger share of Chipotle patrons visiting the chain than McDonald’s diners visiting Chipotle – in Q4 2019, 49.9% of Chipotle diners visited a McDonald's. By Q4 2022, however, that already significant share of cross-dining grew to 56.5%.

Chipotle also grew in popularity with McDonald's diners – 12.0% of McDonald's diners visited Chipotle in Q4 2022, compared to just 9.2% in Q4 2019. This increase suggests that Chipotle will continue to find receptive customers as it continues its expansion. 

Looking Ahead to 2023

2022 was a challenging year for many dining establishments. However, McDonald’s and Chipotle closed out the year in a place of strength and seem poised to continue their growth into 2023. From leaning into digital innovations and automation, expanding in previously-underserved markets, and doubling down on drive-thru, both chains can hope to see continued visit growth in the new year. 

For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/blog

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?
Northeastern USA Grocery Dive
Movie Theaters Storylines for 2023
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Discounters are Evolving
Leveraging Brick-and-Mortar Retail in 2023
America’s Evolving Work Patterns: A Deep-Dive into New York and Chicago
Placer.ai Mall Index March 2023
Tuning Into Record Stores
Five Franchises To Watch in 2023
What’s Next For Domestic Tourism?
It’s Showtime! Movie Theaters in the Spotlight
5 Limited Time Offers (LTOs) Driving Restaurant Traffic
Department Store Deep-Dive: Belk
Regional Grocery Chains Staying Ahead of the Competition
Five Chains that Rightsized for Success
Unlocking the Potential of Offline Retail Media Networks
Dining Out With Darden
What’s in Store for Self-Storage?
Nike & lululemon Update: Strong Performance Amid Expansion Plans
Many Ways to Win: Midwest Grocery Deep Dive
Retail, Reinvented: The Rise of the Pop-Up Shop
Navigating a New Normal in Business Travel & Commutes
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2023 Recap
Retail Categories Staying Strong in Volatile Environment
Ulta Beauty: Poised for Success into 2023
Placer.ai Mall Index February 2023: Reasons for Continued Optimism
Catching Up With DICK’s & Hibbett
The Miami-Dade Arena: An Advertising Slam Dunk
Car Washes Revving Up Visits
Tuesday Morning and Sunrises in Home Furnishing
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap
2023: The Year of the Discount Store
Aldi’s Success Highlights Growing Demand for Value Groceries
5 Retail & Service Categories Holding onto Pandemic Gains in 2023
Visitor Insights from Super Bowl 2023
2023 First Look: Home Improvement Update
How Are Target, Walmart, and Wholesale Clubs Faring in 2023?
Department Store Deep-Dive: Nordstrom
Off-Price: Taking Off in Uncertain Times
Checking in On Middle-Class Hubs
Who Attends the Super Bowl?
Placer.ai Office Index: January 2023 Recap
Focusing On Fitness: Q4 and January Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: January 2023 – Returning Mall Normalcy?
Location Intelligence Insights Into Concert Attendance
Winning Dining Strategies for 2023
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Location Intelligence Breakdown: Coffee Caps-Off 2022
Digitally Native Brands Lean Into Brick & Mortar
Washington, D.C. Population Changes & Migration Trends
A Location Intelligence Perspective on Macy’s Rightsizing
Amazon-Powered Shopping: The Future of Brick-and-Mortar Grocery?
Cold Weather, Hot Visits: Diving into Winter Resorts
Wawa and 7-Eleven: Leaning Into the “Slurpee Effect”
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle
Let’s Have Some Fun! Going Out Is In
Placer.ai’s Q4 2022 Quarterly Index
Placer.ai Adds Industry Executives to Leadership Team To Drive Company's Next Phase of Growth
5 Emerging Retail Formats: 2023’s Brick-and-Mortar Evolution
Grocery Update: Zooming in on the Lone Star State
2022 Office Recap: The Year of the TGIF Work Week
What Lies Ahead for Brick-and-Mortar Luxury in 2023
Placer.ai Mall Indexes: December 2022 Recap
Looking Back on 2022’s Holiday Shopping Season
Post-Pandemic Migration Trends in New York
Top Retailers for 2023
The Live Sports Advertising Opportunity
Domestic Migration to the Mountain States: Small Shifts with Big Implications
New Year, New Food: 5 Dining Trends For 2023
Announcing Placer.ai’s COVID RECOVERY DASHBOARD
This is Why Shop-in-Shops Are Everywhere
Super Saturday 2022 Recap
The San Francisco Shift
Grocery Year-End Update: Publix in the Spotlight