Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle

by 
Bracha Arnold
 on 
January 18, 2023
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle

When we last checked in with McDonald’s and Chipotle, both were outpacing their category peers and introducing new initiatives to help drive foot traffic and sales. With 2022 in the rearview, we dove into the quarterly performance of both chains and consider what might lie ahead for them in 2023.

Visits On the Up and Up

McDonald’s and Chipotle enjoyed impressive foot traffic growth all months analyzed. Much of this success is tied to the expansion both chains have undergone – Chipotle has grown from around 2,500 stores in 2019 to nearly 3,100 in 2022, and plans on opening an additional 250 locations in 2023. And McDonald’s, which is experiencing impressive sales growth, is leaning into automation for its planned expansion

The strength of these brands is even more impressive when compared to the recent performance of the wider QSR and fast casual dining categories. Consumers are increasingly conscious of how they spend their money, with many choosing to dine out less frequently than they previously may have – and restaurants are feeling the effects of these decisions. 

The QSR segment was down 11.1% and 10.4% in Q3 and Q4 2022 compared to the equivalent quarters in 2019. Meanwhile, McDonald’s – undisputed QSR leader – saw its visits elevated by 13.3% and 26.2%, respectively, for the same period. Chipotle, too, saw outperformance, with its visits exceeding the fast-casual segment in a year-over-three-year (Yo3Y, 2022 vs 2019) comparison. Visits to Chipotle grew by 66.2% and 28.7% in Q3 and Q4 2022 compared to the same quarters in 2019, while the fast-casual category saw its visits shrink by 18.9% and 27.2% in the same period.

Industry Leaders Cementing Their Roles

Year-over-year (YoY, 2022 vs 2021) foot traffic trends only strengthened these chains' position as industry leaders. As QSR-wide visit patterns remain subdued, McDonald's' growth remained noteworthy, with Q4 visits to the chain up 29.4% YoY compared to the 0.6% dip for the QSR category. The company’s growth relative to its wider segment may be partially due to the post-COVID effect – many dining chains rightsized or shuttered locations over the pandemic, leaving giants like McDonald’s to benefit from the reduced competition and market consolidation. 

Chipotle also continued outperforming the fast-casual segment on a YoY basis while exceeding its own 2021 foot traffic in nearly all quarters of the year – and the California-based company is leaning into innovation to continue building its strength. Chipotle has invested heavily in Chipotlanes, or fully digital drive-thrus – of the 43 locations it opened in Q3 2022, 38 had Chipotlanes, positioning the company to continue catering to consumers looking for an omnichannel dining experience. Chipotle is also expanding into smaller markets, where audiences are highly responsive and overhead is lower.

Cross-Dining Increasing 

Most notably, cross-dining data reveals that there is room at the top for multiple dining leaders. Between Q4 2019 and Q4 2022, the percentage of each chain’s diners that also visited the other chain increased – indicating that the success these companies are enjoying is not coming at the expense of the other. 

McDonald's, boasting over 13,000 locations, unsurprisingly saw a larger share of Chipotle patrons visiting the chain than McDonald’s diners visiting Chipotle – in Q4 2019, 49.9% of Chipotle diners visited a McDonald's. By Q4 2022, however, that already significant share of cross-dining grew to 56.5%.

Chipotle also grew in popularity with McDonald's diners – 12.0% of McDonald's diners visited Chipotle in Q4 2022, compared to just 9.2% in Q4 2019. This increase suggests that Chipotle will continue to find receptive customers as it continues its expansion. 

Looking Ahead to 2023

2022 was a challenging year for many dining establishments. However, McDonald’s and Chipotle closed out the year in a place of strength and seem poised to continue their growth into 2023. From leaning into digital innovations and automation, expanding in previously-underserved markets, and doubling down on drive-thru, both chains can hope to see continued visit growth in the new year. 

For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/blog

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Text Link
McDonald's
Text Link
Chipotle
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: September 2023 Recap
Placer Mall Index Recap: September 2023
September White Paper Recap
The Consumer Habits of College Students
JCPenney: Rightsizing and Revitalizing
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Placer.ai Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective