Grocery

Liquor store visits remain far above 2019 levels despite slowing national growth. Regional patterns reveal Florida, Texas, and parts of the South as emerging BevAlc hubs, while California and the Northeast see declines, signaling strategic opportunities for targeted retail investment.

Retail in 2025 is being redefined by omnichannel convergence, creative merchandising, and tech-driven convenience. Walmart’s 4.5% sales growth underscores its edge over Amazon, while warehouse clubs modernize and grocers uncover new merchandising plays. The winners? Those adapting fastest to a constantly shifting retail landscape.

Dollar General is rapidly gaining grocery share, fueled by short “in-and-out” trips and a growing role as a food destination. Since 2019, the chain has taken visits from traditional supermarkets while expanding nationwide beyond its Southern core. Cross-shopping shows Aldi as a complementary partner, while Kroger and other legacy grocers feel the squeeze.

East and South Asian grocery chains like H Mart, 99 Ranch Market, Mitsuwa Marketplace, and Patel Brothers offer some shoppers a taste of home while presenting others with an entry point to explore global cuisines.

The first half of 2025 shows a bifurcated retail market. While foot traffic is up for experiences and value brands, it lags for discretionary items. This is driving leasing momentum in prime locations, even as overall retail sales are propped up by high-income households.

Aldi, Trader Joe's, and Lidl defy grocery challenges with unique strategies. Aldi maintains per-store visits despite rapid expansion. Trader Joe's gained California market share. Lidl broadened its base with older shoppers and now targets urban expansion. Their success extends beyond just low prices.

The US economy shows a split. Retail visits rebounded in May-June, driven by value and promotions, after a slow start. This consumer resilience contrasts with a slowdown in manufacturing and port activity since May, as businesses brace for potential tariff volatility in H2 2025.

Limited-edition product launches powerfully drive retail traffic. Trader Joe's Mini Totes and Target's Kate Spade launch show how manufactured scarcity and non-price incentives engage diverse consumers, proving their enduring power in today's market.