Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

The Home Improvement Reckoning

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
June 14, 2021
The Home Improvement Reckoning

If there’s one sector that saw a pandemic driven boost, it was the home improvement space. Home Depot saw a year-over-year visit increase of 13.1% between 2019 and 2020, while Lowe’s and Tractor Supply saw respective jumps of 21.3% and 18.5%. The success carried into 2021, with visit surges driving huge year-over-year growth in the first quarter. The rise of work from home, the added time at home during closures, and shifting migration patterns all contributed to the sector’s unique success.

Yet, there were clear signs that the extended surge the sector experienced was likely coming to an end in April. So how did May visit data compare, and what does it mean for the sector moving forward?

May Declines - The End of the Run?

Home Depot kicked off 2021 with average year-over-year monthly visit growth of 22.2%, with Lowe’s coming in just behind with a 17.1% average increase. The run capped off a period of almost an entire year during which visits surged each month – even during off-peak seasons. 

However, this extended period of year-over-year growth came to an end in May with Home Depot visits down 11.9% and Lowe’s visits down 22.4% compared to May 2020. And while the month marked a huge change for Home Depot, the writing was on the wall for Lowe’s already in April when visits were up just 0.1%. Even Tractor Supply, a brand still seeing growth, saw visit increases drop from a 35.2% year-over-year jump in April to just a 7.6% increase in May.

So is this the end of the run for home improvement’s supercharged numbers? Maybe. Does it mean the sector is taking a step back? Absolutely not.

Home Improvement Still Thriving - In Context

While the visit declines seem significant, they require context for a proper perspective. Comparing visits in May 2021 to May 2019 shows that Home Depot and Lowe’s were still seeing massive increases of 11.4% and 14.2% respectively. 

The clear takeaway is that while the huge growth levels experienced during the pandemic will likely fade, the sector’s leaders have been pushed into a stronger long-term position as a result of that extended ‘lightning in a bottle’ moment. Brands in most sectors are being compared to 2019 to put dramatic year-over-year changes into context, and the best performing brands from the pandemic period demand a similar approach. While the unique nature of the pandemic provided a huge short-term boost to the home improvement sector, even those that don’t reach the levels set in 2020 may still be performing exceptionally, even historically, well.

There are also other reasons to believe that this level of extended strength could continue. Major disruptions to migration patterns have more people moving to further distances, giving an added value to brands oriented around home improvements and upgrades. And even those not moving could drive value for the sector: High residential real estate prices could push more people to invest in in-home upgrades instead of moving.

Balance of Power Shift - The Rise of Tractor Supply

Even amid the murkiness driven by the huge success of the sector since the onset of the pandemic, the rise of Tractor Supply still jumps out. Looking at monthly visits for the first five months of 2021 shows average year-over-year monthly growth of 34.2%, something only surpassed by an average monthly increase of 44.4% when compared to 2019. 

It appears that the jumps have pushed Tractor Supply into a stronger position within the sector. Looking at visit share between the three analyzed brands during the peak March through May period shows a significant shift in Tractor Supply’s favor. In 2019 and 2020, the brand averaged 5.9% visit share during the period, a number that jumped to 7.2% in 2021. While this should certainly not shake anyone’s confidence in Home Depot or Lowe’s, it does point to a rising power in the home improvement space.

Will the sector continue to return to more ‘normal’ levels of success? Can Tractor Supply’s rise continue?

Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: September 2023 Recap
Placer Mall Index Recap: September 2023
September White Paper Recap
The Consumer Habits of College Students
JCPenney: Rightsizing and Revitalizing
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Placer.ai Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective