Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Starbucks and Dunkin' Rising and The Magic Recovery Metric?

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
July 23, 2020
Starbucks and Dunkin' Rising and The Magic Recovery Metric?

Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts are two of the most well-known and well-loved brands in the country. And while they were hit hard by the pandemic, recovery is underway for both.

Starbucks & Dunkin’ Rounding Into Form

The shutdown meant more than closed stores and work from home, it represented a fundamental shift in the normal patterns of behavior for most people in the country. And few brands witnessed the impact of this change more than Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts. With a clear orientation to coffee and breakfast, the breakdown of normal morning routines, whether work commutes, trips to or from school, all impacted the performance of these brands. And this combined with the more acute impact on major cities alongside closed locations clearly limited reach during the period.

Yet, the recovery does seem to be kicking in for both. Visits in June were down 27.3% for Dunkin’ and 30.8% for Starbucks year over year, a massive leap forward from May when visits were down 42.9% and 45.1% year over year respectively.

And critically, the pace of return has been picking up. The week of June 29th was the best week for in-store visits for either brand since COVID began impacting retail in March, and this was during a week where July 4th clearly suppressed weekend traffic.

Shifts in Behavior

And while lockdowns certainly mattered, the ramifications do seem to center around this break from the daily routines. In May and June 2019, 9.2% of Starbucks visitors came straight from work, while 9.1% went to work directly after a Starbucks visit. These numbers dropped to 5.0% and 5.8% respectively in May and June 2020. For Dunkin’, the shift was equally dramatic with 7.8% of May and June visitors in 2019 coming from work and 10.1% going to work immediately after a visit. These numbers dropped to 4.8% and 6.2% respectively in the same months in 2020. These patterns also held true for visits after a school visit, indicating likely post-drop off declines.

The Magic Metric - Morning Visits?

Measuring this return to ‘normal’ behavior, therefore, becomes all the more important. To give some context for this, we dove into the time of visit for May and June 2019 compared to the same months in 2020 and as well as the early numbers from July 2020. Analyzing both brands, there was a massive shift away from early morning and evening traffic during the pandemic with early afternoon visits picking up when comparing May and June visits in 2020 to the same months in 2019. But here too, the data shows indications of a return to normalcy.

For Dunkin’, 7.6% of 2019 visits in May and June came between 6 am and 8 am, numbers that dropped to 5.7%, and 5.6% in May and June 2020 and July 2020 thus far respectively. Yet, the 8 am to 10 am time period is returning to normal with 16.0% of July 2020 visits coming in this window compared to 16.8% in 2019, rising from 14.9% in May and June 2020. 

This same return was evident for Starbucks where the percentage of July visits between 8 am and 10 am moved closer to “normal” while visits for the brand have shifted away from the early afternoon back to other core periods.

What’s Next?

Both brands seemed on a clear path to recovery, but the current resurgence of COVID in states like Florida, California, and Texas should be very worrying. While delivery and pick-up is clearly an important part of the business, the daily routines that brought people in contact with their favorite barista brand could be disrupted once again. 

On the bright side, the summer is not the strongest period for either brand with their peaks coming later in the year during fall and winter. However, both are clearly hoping for a quick return, as such normalcy in work and school routines would clearly provide a significant uplift.
How will the recovery unfold for the coffee titans?

Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Crocs’ Footwear Fairytale
Who Attends NCAA Final Four Events?
Eclipse Fever: How Did the (Retail and Hospitality) Stars Align?
Exploring Albertsons Companies’ Grocery Growth
Placer.ai Mall Index: March 2024 Recap – Malls Rise Again
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2024 Recap
Florida Spring Break Break-Up? Travelers Still Love Florida!
Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield Emerging As Utah Hotspots 
Three Formulas for Experiential Retail in 2024
Aldi & Lidl Making The Cut
Texas Suburbs on the Rise
Exploring Luxury Hotel Brands’ Guest Segmentation
The St. Patrick’s Day Effect
How Can JOANN Make a Comeback?
Panera Bread Well Positioned for Possible IPO
Who Will Benefit From Family Dollar’s Downsizing?
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment: Food and Fun for Everyone
Darden Brands: Location Analytics and Consumer Behavior
Nike and lululemon: a Strong 2023, Sprinting into 2024
Where Is Retail and Dining Foot Traffic Thriving in Early 2024?
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – February 2024
Three Retail & Dining Chains That May Surprise in 2024
Specialty Discount Chains Rock Retail Therapy
Placer.ai Mall Index: February 2024
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2024 Recap
Ulta Beauty Continues To Shine
First Watch Sails Into 2024
Hibbett Sports and DICK’S Sporting Goods: A Psychographic Analysis
Checking in With Discount & Dollar Stores
Peeking Behind The Curtain: Movie Theaters in 2023 and Beyond
Diving Into Brick-and-Mortar Eyewear
Getting Into Gear: Exploring The Auto Part Industry
Recapping Valentine’s Day 2024 Foot Traffic Trends
Fitness: A Strong Start to 2024
Dutch Bros. Continues To Percolate Visits
Super Bowl 2024: Placer.ai’s Postgame Foot Traffic Analysis
CAVA & sweetgreen Are On the Rise
Hats Off For Off-Price
Who Is Shopping at Malls?
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains
Placer.ai Office Index: Looking Back at 2023
Recapping RBI & Yum! Brands’ 2023 Foot Traffic Performance
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – January 2024
Who Shops at Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters?
Three Taco Chains to Watch in 2024
Starbucks and Dunkin’: 2023 in Four Data Points
Who Visits CVS and Walgreens?
Fashionably Frugal: Apparel in 2023
Catching Up With Fast Food
The Grocery Sector in 2023: An End-of-Year Recap
3 Mall & Shopping Center Trends for 2024
Bakery Chains Rising To The Top
Placer.ai and Esri Partner to Deliver Geospatial Analytics
Tampa Tourism Trends
Going For The Green: The Changing Dynamics Of Country Clubs
Christmas Day Dining Recap
Major Urban Shopping Districts – Holiday Season Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: December 2023 Recap
Recapping the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – December 2023
7 Retail & Dining Segments to Watch in 2024
Diving Into Holiday Season Favorites
Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve: A Winning Combination
3 Budget Grocery Chains Finishing 2023 On a High Note
Making It In America: International Chicken Chains Bring The Heat
Domestic Tourism at a Glance: A Q3 2023 Roundup
Five Pizza Chains On The Rise
Jewelry Brands Taking Advantage of the DTC Opportunity
Secondhand News: Kids' Thrift Shops
Recapping 2023’s Dining M&As
MetLife Stadium Kicks Off Football Season
Placer.ai Office Index: November 2023 Recap
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023