Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a account? Log In

October 2022’s Retail Rebound

Ethan Chernofsky
November 14, 2022
October 2022’s Retail Rebound

Retail foot traffic picked up again in October ahead of a much anticipated holiday season. We dove into the visit data to find out which categories are making the biggest comeback and how this year’s extended holiday season stacks up against 2021. 

Year-over-Three-Year Foot Traffic Swings Positive 

September was difficult for much of the retail landscape, as inflation took a toll on consumer spending. But the tide has turned in recently, with weekly visits since mid-October up relative to pre-pandemic 2019. Early holiday shoppers stocking up on gifts and consumers making peace with the current prices drove an October retail rebound ahead of a critical holiday season. 

Positive Trends Across the Board

Critically, the October rebound was not limited to just a few retail segments – diving into key categories reveals that year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) foot traffic trends improved across the board. Sectors that were already on a Yo3Y growth path increased further, while segments that sustained foot traffic losses in previous months saw their visit gaps narrow. 

Following a brief decline in September, the Grocery segment returned to growth with October visits up 4.3% relative to 2019. Discount & Dollar stores saw its Yo3Y foot traffic grow from 14.5% in September to 19.9% in October, while Yo3Y visits to Superstores rose from 0.8% to 4.6% in the same period. Yo3Y foot traffic growth to Pet Stores and Car Shops also accelerated. 

October QSR visits were also up compared to 2019, reversing the Yo3Y declines of August and September. And Home Improvement, Shopping Centers, and Clothing didn’t quite reach 2019 levels, but still succeeded in narrowing their visit gaps significantly. The growth is critical, especially ahead of the holiday season and in the final stages of a year defined by tremendous volatility.

Critical Context For Year-over-Year Declines

And while many categories saw visits fall relative to 2021, the year-over-year (YoY) declines should also be understood within the context of the wider brick-and-mortar resurgence. Last year, as shops and services reopened, the pent-up demand of 2020 and early 2021 led to considerable retail visit surges – and now, foot traffic in many segments is normalizing. But the YoY declines are more a testament of the success of last year’s retail performance than they are indicative of any true contraction, especially given the wider picture of Yo3Y strength.

2022’s Extended Holiday Season 

Month-over-month (MoM) data also provides another reason for optimism ahead of the holidays. Pre-pandemic, holiday shopping usually began in November, with Black Friday marking the official start of the season. This is illustrated by pre-pandemic October MoM visit trends – foot traffic data also shows that October 2019 visits to key retail categories such as Shopping Centers and Department Stores stayed relatively close to September 2019 levels.

But last year’s holiday season extended into the early fall, as retailers called on customers to shop for gifts ahead of time in anticipation of supply chain related shortages. Customers listened and drove the start of the holiday shopping season up, with key retail categories seeing a significant MoM boost in October 2021. 

This year also saw a noticeable MoM increase in October retail visits, although the growth was not as dramatic as in 2021. Critically, however, many retailers have recently reported inventory excesses – so this year’s extended holiday season is likely not driven by customers looking to avoid last-minute empty shelves. Instead, the early start to the 2022 holiday season may be motivated by consumers excited to shop for the first “normal” holiday season since the end of the pandemic. So while this year’s October MoM increases are not as sharp as last year’s, the customer-driven extension of the holiday season beyond November despite inflation and tighter budgets is an extremely positive sign for what lies ahead. 

It is also important to remember that, although 2021’s holiday season started early, its peaks were limited by the impact of Omicron in mid-December. But this year, the holiday season is both starting early and expected to continue all the way through, which should give retailers even more time than last year to serve consumers looking to make the most of this year’s holidays. If current trends continue, then, 2022’s extended holiday shopping season may well outperform 2021’s. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Text Link
Retail Trends
Text Link
Text Link
The Promise of Luxury Apparel
Catching Up With Ulta Beauty & Gap Brands
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves
CAVA Still Going Strong
Driving Success: Auto Parts Chains in 2024
Checking in With DICK’S Sporting Goods
Mother’s Day Shopping and Dining Trends Mall Index: April 2024 Recap – Retail Resilience Heading into Spring
Dollar Stores Still Gaining Momentum
Off-Price Apparel Chains After Q1 2024: Demographics in the Balance
Walmart, Target, and Wholesale Clubs Continue to Thrive
Home Improvement and Decor Check In Office Index: April 2024 Recap – Recovery Continues
Movie Theaters in Q1 2024: A Preview of Coming Attractions?
Let’s Get Physical: Fitness In 2024
Where Are Workers Returning to Office in 2024?
2024 Wins: Sweetgreen & First Watch on the Rise
A Full-Service Turnaround: Bloomin’, Dine, and Texas Roadhouse
Wendy’s and Denny’s: Breakfast and Late Night Dining Drives Success
Coffee Chains: Q1 2024 Update and What’s Changed Since COVID
Checking in with RBI and YUM!
Chipotle & McDonald's Serving Up Success
Wingstop & Shake Shack Continue Growing Their Reach 
Strong Start for Sprouts in 2024
Crocs’ Footwear Fairytale
Who Attends NCAA Final Four Events?
Eclipse Fever: How Did the (Retail and Hospitality) Stars Align?
Exploring Albertsons Companies’ Grocery Growth Mall Index: March 2024 Recap – Malls Rise Again Office Index: March 2024 Recap
Florida Spring Break Break-Up? Travelers Still Love Florida!
Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield Emerging As Utah Hotspots 
Three Formulas for Experiential Retail in 2024
Aldi & Lidl Making The Cut
Texas Suburbs on the Rise
Exploring Luxury Hotel Brands’ Guest Segmentation
The St. Patrick’s Day Effect
How Can JOANN Make a Comeback?
Panera Bread Well Positioned for Possible IPO
Who Will Benefit From Family Dollar’s Downsizing?
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment: Food and Fun for Everyone
Darden Brands: Location Analytics and Consumer Behavior
Nike and lululemon: a Strong 2023, Sprinting into 2024
Where Is Retail and Dining Foot Traffic Thriving in Early 2024? White Paper Recap – February 2024
Three Retail & Dining Chains That May Surprise in 2024
Specialty Discount Chains Rock Retail Therapy Mall Index: February 2024 Office Index: February 2024 Recap
Ulta Beauty Continues To Shine
First Watch Sails Into 2024
Hibbett Sports and DICK’S Sporting Goods: A Psychographic Analysis
Checking in With Discount & Dollar Stores
Peeking Behind The Curtain: Movie Theaters in 2023 and Beyond
Diving Into Brick-and-Mortar Eyewear
Getting Into Gear: Exploring The Auto Part Industry
Recapping Valentine’s Day 2024 Foot Traffic Trends
Fitness: A Strong Start to 2024
Dutch Bros. Continues To Percolate Visits
Super Bowl 2024:’s Postgame Foot Traffic Analysis
CAVA & sweetgreen Are On the Rise
Hats Off For Off-Price
Who Is Shopping at Malls?
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains Office Index: Looking Back at 2023
Recapping RBI & Yum! Brands’ 2023 Foot Traffic Performance White Paper Recap – January 2024
Who Shops at Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters?
Three Taco Chains to Watch in 2024
Starbucks and Dunkin’: 2023 in Four Data Points
Who Visits CVS and Walgreens?
Fashionably Frugal: Apparel in 2023
Catching Up With Fast Food
The Grocery Sector in 2023: An End-of-Year Recap
3 Mall & Shopping Center Trends for 2024
Bakery Chains Rising To The Top and Esri Partner to Deliver Geospatial Analytics
Tampa Tourism Trends
Going For The Green: The Changing Dynamics Of Country Clubs
Christmas Day Dining Recap
Major Urban Shopping Districts – Holiday Season Recap Office Index: December 2023 Recap
Recapping the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season White Paper Recap – December 2023
7 Retail & Dining Segments to Watch in 2024
Diving Into Holiday Season Favorites
Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve: A Winning Combination
3 Budget Grocery Chains Finishing 2023 On a High Note
Making It In America: International Chicken Chains Bring The Heat
Domestic Tourism at a Glance: A Q3 2023 Roundup
Five Pizza Chains On The Rise
Jewelry Brands Taking Advantage of the DTC Opportunity
Secondhand News: Kids' Thrift Shops
Recapping 2023’s Dining M&As
MetLife Stadium Kicks Off Football Season Office Index: November 2023 Recap
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success