Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Less Restricted States: Coronavirus Impact

by 
Tali Rozenman
 on 
April 15, 2020
Less Restricted States: Coronavirus Impact

With tightening restrictions nationwide, Wholesale and Mass Merchandise traffic is seeing major declines. But are states with partial to no stay-at-home orders experiencing similar traffic patterns as those heavily hit by coronavirus? 

We dove into the less impacted regions of the U.S. to examine the traffic patterns and the lessons they may hold. 

Similar Target Trends

Comparing four states without any mandatory stay-at-home orders (Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota) to two states with partial stay-at-home orders (Utah and Oklahoma), alongside a heavily locked down New York, we see similar traffic trends for Target. 

All regions experienced a spike in traffic the second week of March, followed by extreme dips. While surprisingly, New York had the lowest year-over-year decrease for the second week of March, 21.6% as compared to the 30.9% to 41.3% decrease in the other states, it doubled its losses the following week while the others saw decreases that leveled off. Most states continued to level off into the third week of March, with minor decreases, and Iowa, Oklahoma and New York even started improving into the first week of April. 

The widespread, and nearly equivalent downturn, speaks to both Target’s self-imposed restrictions and the fact that the brand is less associated with grocery when compared with Walmart.

Walmart Winners 

Looking at Walmart reveals a mixed picture. While six of the states analyzed show unprecedented peaks the second week of March followed by major drops, the magnitudes of the traffic declines are different and worth noting. 

Iowa managed to sustain slight positive year-over-year growth into the third week of March, followed by the inevitable dips the following weeks, led also by Walmart’s self-imposed limitations. But both Iowa and Oklahoma chains saw smaller year-over-year decreases than the rest of the group, all in the 7% to 11% range. Utah was the only state that experienced a stronger fourth week of March than the previous week, followed by a slight dip the first week of April as a result of newly introduced state restrictions. 

Still, Iowa, Oklahoma and Utah Walmarts seem to be the most resilient during this time. And while Nebraska and North Dakota’s downward trend continues into April, the rest of the states, including New York, have nearly leveled off. 

Wholesale Strength

Looking at Sam’s Club, the regional differences and wholesale’s continued strength during the coronavirus become most apparent. Not including the Dakotas, which have too few locations to analyze, all states show enormous year-over-year traffic growth the second week of March. New York’s peak of 65.6% is actually the lowest in the group, with Utah leading at 80% year-over-year growth. Even going into the third week of March, all states show positive year-over-year growth, though much of this is related to Sam’s Club’s general resurgence in the last few quarters.

Traffic inevitably dips the final week of March, with New York being the hardest hit. Utah managed to sustain positive year-over-year growth into the third week of March. As restrictions were implemented, it finally dipped into the first week of April, with a 11.6% decrease in traffic year over year. 

Interestingly, Iowa and Nebraska managed to get back to positive growth the first week of April, perhaps as a result of a perceived need to stock up before potential stay-at-home measures were introduced. Both New York and Oklahoma seem to have reached their “floor,” with a stronger performing first week of April as compared to the last week of March. 

Takeaways

Unsurprisingly, the data does not lead to a uniform conclusion when it comes to the low-impact states. Yet, it’s clearly important to continue monitoring them as their response to the pandemic evolves. Obviously, different retailers in different parts of the country will be affected differently. A variety of factors, from population distribution, to number of cases, to when and which coronavirus measures are introduced will affect how this situation unfolds. And this is critical for planning for the rebound.

Will states with little to no restrictions rebound faster? Or will they suffer from even greater traffic dips further down the line? With the potential for phased returns, the implications could be enormous.

As always, we will continue to provide insights into this situation at the Placer.ai blog.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
widget test
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Placer.ai Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective
Moving the Market: The Impact of Domestic Migration on Housing Costs
Post-Pandemic Museum Update
The Darden-est Things
The Enduring Demand for Urban and Suburban Retail
Leveraging Data to Evaluate the Impact of Municipal Investments
Trader Joe's Success Amidst Food Inflation and Changing Consumer Behavior
Placer.ai Office Index: May 2023 Recap
Fitness at its Fittest: Staying Strong in 2023
Movie Theaters, Off-Price, and Home Improvement: May 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index - May 2023 Recap
What’s Working for Bath & Body Works?
Why Are Specialty Grocers Thriving in 2023?
The CAVA Craze: A Location Intelligence Perspective on the Mediterranean Marvel
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?