Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap

by 
R.J. Hottovy
 on 
February 23, 2023
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap

The dining industry has been slow to fully recover from the impacts of the pandemic, and the ongoing inflation and tighter consumer budgets are making a 2023 comeback seem increasingly unlikely. Notably, even Valentine's Day – often marked by elevated restaurant visits – may not be enough to revitalize the industry. Still, some brands are managing to meet, and exceed, their 2019 visit levels. We dive into the state of the sector to better understand what is driving these trends.

Industry Changes Leading to Visitation Shifts

To better understand how the full-service restaurant (FSR) industry is faring so far in 2023, we took a closer look at the year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) visitation trends to 20 of the largest chains in the country. 

FSR winners included steakhouse chains Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, Capital Grille, and breakfast restaurants First Watch and Waffle House. These two categories – steakhouses and breakfast chains – have enjoyed a recent rise in popularity, likely boosted by recent expansions. Steakhouse leader Texas Roadhouse aims to grow from 596 locations to 900 in the next decade. First Watch opened 43 stores in 2022 and has plans for annual unit expansion between 10% to 12%, with the eventual goal of operating around 2,200 stores nationwide.  

Three steakhouses saw particularly impressive growth, with January 2023 seeing Yo3Y growth of 17.5%, 5.3%, and 0.5% for Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and The Capital Grille, respectively. In the breakfast space, First Watch exceeded January visits by 18.2% Yo3Y, and Waffle House's visits grew by 9.8%.  

Still, these trends don't mean all steakhouses and breakfast restaurants are doing well Yo3Y. With the cost of dining out 8.2% higher than last year, many middle or lower-income diners are trading down or forgoing a restaurant meal entirely. This trade-down has led to a decline in restaurant visits in the middle of the pricing scale like Cracker Barrel, Denny's, and IHOP while benefiting lower-priced chains like Waffle House.

Fast-Casual’s Pivot 

Further highlighting the effects of rising costs, visit trends to quick-service restaurants (QSR) and fast-casual dining options have evolved over the past few years. Although both fast-casual and QSR enjoyed strong visitation patterns from Q1 2017 onward, fast-casual typically performed better than QSR between 2017 and 2019. 

The pandemic saw the first instance of QSR outpacing fast-casual, with the category’s visits per location exceeding fast-casual average visits per location by around 35% in Q2 2020. The trend continued in Q3 2020, but fast-casual returned to outperform QSR for most of 2021 and early 2022. Since Q2 2022, however, as inflation took over from COVID-19 as consumers' primary concern, visits to the segment have lagged behind QSR.  

This change is likely a result of how fast-casual dining pricing has changed. Some brands, like Chipotle, choose to substantially raise their prices while discouraging discounts. The price increases may have cut into these concepts’ visit numbers but not necessarily into the brands’ profits, as higher prices encourage a more profitable customer base to visit their locations. 

The Valentine’s Day Effect

Valentine's Day is a day of love and consumer spending, one that typically sees restaurants booked out months in advance. Consumer spending has been projected to reach $26 billion on gifts and other declarations of affection for Valentines 2023, an 8% increase from 2022. But how people spend their money on Valentine's Day has changed over the past few years.

Beauty and self-care saw visit growth of 4.7% year over year (YoY) on Valentine’s Day, while the other categories analyzed saw visit lags, with visits to restaurants down 0.2% YoY. Jewelry retailers saw 13.4% fewer visits than the previous year. 

These shifts are likely another extension of the inflationary impact on consumer behavior and changes in how people spend money on Valentine's Day, with more emphasis on experiential gifts and presents, though inflation could also be playing a role.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Text Link
Texas Roadhouse
Text Link
The Capital Grille
Text Link
Longhorn Steakhouse
Darden Brands: Location Analytics and Consumer Behavior
Nike and lululemon: a Strong 2023, Sprinting into 2024
Where Is Retail and Dining Foot Traffic Thriving in Early 2024?
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – February 2024
Three Retail & Dining Chains That May Surprise in 2024
Specialty Discount Chains Rock Retail Therapy
Placer.ai Mall Index: February 2024
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2024 Recap
Ulta Beauty Continues To Shine
First Watch Sails Into 2024
Hibbett Sports and DICK’S Sporting Goods: A Psychographic Analysis
Checking in With Discount & Dollar Stores
Peeking Behind The Curtain: Movie Theaters in 2023 and Beyond
Diving Into Brick-and-Mortar Eyewear
Getting Into Gear: Exploring The Auto Part Industry
Recapping Valentine’s Day 2024 Foot Traffic Trends
Fitness: A Strong Start to 2024
Dutch Bros. Continues To Percolate Visits
Super Bowl 2024: Placer.ai’s Postgame Foot Traffic Analysis
CAVA & sweetgreen Are On the Rise
Hats Off For Off-Price
Who Is Shopping at Malls?
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains
Placer.ai Office Index: Looking Back at 2023
Recapping RBI & Yum! Brands’ 2023 Foot Traffic Performance
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – January 2024
Who Shops at Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters?
Three Taco Chains to Watch in 2024
Starbucks and Dunkin’: 2023 in Four Data Points
Who Visits CVS and Walgreens?
Fashionably Frugal: Apparel in 2023
Catching Up With Fast Food
The Grocery Sector in 2023: An End-of-Year Recap
3 Mall & Shopping Center Trends for 2024
Bakery Chains Rising To The Top
Placer.ai and Esri Partner to Deliver Geospatial Analytics
Tampa Tourism Trends
Going For The Green: The Changing Dynamics Of Country Clubs
Christmas Day Dining Recap
Major Urban Shopping Districts – Holiday Season Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: December 2023 Recap
Recapping the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – December 2023
7 Retail & Dining Segments to Watch in 2024
Diving Into Holiday Season Favorites
Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve: A Winning Combination
3 Budget Grocery Chains Finishing 2023 On a High Note
Making It In America: International Chicken Chains Bring The Heat
Domestic Tourism at a Glance: A Q3 2023 Roundup
Five Pizza Chains On The Rise
Jewelry Brands Taking Advantage of the DTC Opportunity
Secondhand News: Kids' Thrift Shops
Recapping 2023’s Dining M&As
MetLife Stadium Kicks Off Football Season
Placer.ai Office Index: November 2023 Recap
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: September 2023 Recap
Placer Mall Index Recap: September 2023
September White Paper Recap
The Consumer Habits of College Students
JCPenney: Rightsizing and Revitalizing
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues