Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Coffee's Remarkable Recovery

by 
Shira Petrack
 on 
January 18, 2022
Coffee's Remarkable Recovery

Our latest white paper dives into the coffee space, which has been flourishing over the past six months despite the successive COVID waves and even as the wider dining category continues to struggle. We dove into the location analytics data to find out – Who is driving the growth? What brands are the main beneficiaries of this foot traffic increase? Are there any regional differences? And what business opportunities does foot traffic data uncover? 

Below is a glimpse of our findings. To download the full report, click here.  

Coffee Space Asserts Its Independence 

Leading coffee brands have proven to be extremely resilient to the pandemic-induced dining downturn. Foot traffic data for the coffee space shows that visits returned to pre-COVID levels already in April 2021, and have consistently outpaced 2019 numbers since May 2021. More recently, the coffee space witnessed Yo2Y growth of 8.4% and 7.5% in November and December, respectively, while overall dining experienced a decline in visits of 6.4% and 1.8% in comparison to 2019 – showing that the demand for coffee stands apart from the wider demand for dining. 

And this foot traffic performance is all the more impressive given the massive disruptions to work and school that continue to persist: Despite the dramatic shifts in daily schedules and work environment, coffee visits have not only recovered – they’ve skyrocketed. This reveals that the demand for coffee can remain robust in the face of widespread disruptions to routines.

Room at the Top For Multiple National Players 

Although nearly every state experienced a Yo2Y increase in Q3 and Q4 coffee visits, zooming into the foot traffic data on a regional level reveals some interesting discrepancies. 

Q4 2021 state-by-state visits to Starbucks, for example, shows that the brand experienced a much stronger Yo2Y growth in New York (30.5%) than it did in California (1.2%). Dunkin’, on the other hand, performed exceptionally well in California, with a 28.8% Yo2Y growth in visits in Q4. In the past, Starbucks was more popular on the West Coast, while Dunkin’ dominated the East Coast – but these numbers may indicate that the brands are increasingly encroaching on each other’s turf. 

Data from Texas further illustrates how regional loyalties are becoming more dynamic. Dunkin’s Q3 Yo2Y growth in the Lone Star State outperformed Starbucks – but the situation reversed in Q4, when Starbucks’ increase in visits outpaced Dunkin’s. This increased ‘cross shopping’ within the coffee sector is especially important considering the wide array of players existing in or expanding the space.

The Rise of Dutch Bros. Coffee

Starbucks and Dunkin' are usually the first brands that come to mind when thinking of national coffee chains. But there are several other national coffee players, and diving into the nationwide Yo2Y visit trends of these other major brands can tell us a lot about the current balance of power within this space. 

The most prominent jump in Yo2Y visits belongs to Dutch Bros. Coffee. The brand’s astronomical rise can be attributed to its significant expansion both to new markets and within states where it already had a strong presence, and to its drive-thru-based business model, which was particularly well suited to the realities of life under COVID.

Starbucks and Dunkin’ still experienced significant Yo2Y visit increases in the second half of 2021 despite Dutch Bros.’ massive expansion, but foot traffic data indicates that the rise of the new-ish kid on the block has the potential to alter the balance of power between the major coffee giants. 

Taking California as a test case is revealing. Dutch Bros. is accelerating its expansion in the Golden State, and has seen a 170% average growth in visits between January 2020 and December 2021 – largely due to its store fleet expansion. And almost every quarter since Q2 2020, there has been an increase in the percentage of Starbucks and Dunkin’ visitors in California who also visited Dutch Bros. In Q1 2020, only 3.3% of Starbucks California visitors and only 3.6% of Dunkin’ California visitors also visited a Dutch Bros. But by Q4 2021, that percentage grew to 5.4%, and 5.8%, respectively.

Want more coffee insights? Download the full report here

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2023 Recap
Placer.ai White Paper Recap: August 2023
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte Strikes Again
Big Scoop: We All Scream For Ice Cream
Sports Away: Lululemon & Nike’s Momentum Continues
Summer Visits Heat Up For Recreation and Outdoor Gear Chains
No CSS overwrite - July 2023 Office Index Recap
Staging - August 2023 Mall Indec
Mid-Atlantic Grocery Deep Dive
Experiential Chains Heating Up This Summer
Petco Goes Big by Going Small
Ulta Beauty: Leading the Discretionary Pack
Discount and Dollar Chains Continue to Thrive
Summer of Sports: DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports
Off-Price: Succeeding Into Summer
The Anchor Recap: July 2023
Superstores Maintaining Pandemic Gains Amidst Economic Headwinds
2023: Home Improvement at the Halfway Point
July 2023 Office Index Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2023 Recap
widget test
The Taylor Swift Visit Lift
Southwestern Grocery Dive
July 2023 White Paper Recap: Halfway Point Review & Quarterly Index
Yum! Brands: Driving Dining Visits
Slurpees and Summer Movies Stimulate Consumer Foot Traffic
Cool Beans: Summer Coffee Update
Checking In on Back to School 2023
Crocs and New Balance Tip The Scales
Burger Bliss: Shake Shack and In-N-Out Stacking Visits
Chipotle & McDonald's Continue to Reign Supreme
Vibenomics and Placer.ai Partner to Enhance Retail Media In-Store Measurement
California Grocers Here We Come!
Marriott’s Different Audiences
Bonchon and Kura Sushi Thrive in the Fast-Casual Scene
A Shoe In: Footwear Climbs to the Top
Cheers! Raising a Glass to Beverage Retail
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index June 2023 Recap – A Turn of the Tide and a Dive into Open-Air Lifestyle Centers
Local Kitchens: Redefining the Restaurant
Unlocking Urban Insights: The Value in Manhattan’s Employees
Ohio State Parks On The Rise
How is Inflation Impacting the High-Income Shoppers?
Five Fast-Growing Dining Chains
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023
The State Of Fashion: How Are Apparel Retailers Faring in 2023?
2023’s Latest Dining Success Story: GEN Korean BBQ House
The NBA Finals: A Location Intelligence Perspective
Moving the Market: The Impact of Domestic Migration on Housing Costs
Post-Pandemic Museum Update
The Darden-est Things
The Enduring Demand for Urban and Suburban Retail
Leveraging Data to Evaluate the Impact of Municipal Investments
Trader Joe's Success Amidst Food Inflation and Changing Consumer Behavior
Placer.ai Office Index: May 2023 Recap
Fitness at its Fittest: Staying Strong in 2023
Movie Theaters, Off-Price, and Home Improvement: May 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index - May 2023 Recap
What’s Working for Bath & Body Works?
Why Are Specialty Grocers Thriving in 2023?
The CAVA Craze: A Location Intelligence Perspective on the Mediterranean Marvel
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap