.svg)
Even as return-to-office (RTO) mandates continue to accumulate, December operates on a different rhythm – shaped as much by holiday flexibility and inclement weather as by formal policy. We dove into the data to see how office attendance reflected these dynamics this year.
The Quietest Month
In December 2025, visits to office buildings nationwide were 33.1% below 2019 levels – 36.2% below when accounting for working days – the widest year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) gap seen in recent months on a per-working-day basis.
But the softness appears to reflect shifting work patterns rather than a stalled recovery. Despite slowing from recent months, December 2025 was still the busiest in-office December since COVID, suggesting that the slowdown was driven by seasonal rhythms rather than any substantive pullback in office attendance.
December has long followed a different in-office rhythm than the rest of the year – and despite return-to-office mandates, many companies likely relax on-site expectations during the holidays, allowing employees to work remotely while traveling or spending time with family. Much like the TGIF workweek, which sees a consistent drop-off in office activity on Fridays despite RTO pushes, the December dip may simply reflect the solidification of a new post-COVID seasonal norm.
Local Factors Shape the December Dip
Local factors also appear to have impacted December office attendance. Miami saw a visit gap of just 10.9% versus 2019, followed by Dallas at 18.8%. As warm-weather cities that also see the highest Friday office attendance among the analyzed markets, both may be less susceptible to holiday-adjacent work-from-home behavior.
New York City, by contrast, recorded a 19.6% visit gap, likely weighed down by harsher winter weather and an early, severe flu season. And Chicago trailed the pack with a 47.6% visit gap, pointing to a sharper seasonal pullback that may have been amplified by winter conditions, elevated flu activity, and workers opting to travel to warmer destinations during the holidays.
Year-Over-Year Momentum Still Points Up – Especially for SF
The year-over-year (YoY) analysis further reinforces that December’s softness is seasonal rather than a reflection of a true RTO slowdown. Even after adjusting for the number of working days, nationwide office visits rose 4.9% YoY, and every tracked market posted gains.
That said, growth remained uneven across major cities. San Francisco posted the strongest YoY gains, even as it continued to trail most other analyzed markets in overall office recovery – reflecting an ongoing vibe shift in a city once defined by post-pandemic pessimism. And with the city’s AI-driven leasing boom showing no signs of slowing, that momentum appears likely to carry into 2026.
Elsewhere, YoY gains were smaller than in San Francisco but still meaningful, pointing to steady progress across markets even as recovery paths vary by city.
A New Year, New Mandates
The data suggests that December’s softening reflects predictable holiday-season flexibility rather than weakening momentum. And with several high-profile return-to-office mandates set to take effect in early 2026 – and other employers continuing to nudge attendance higher through quieter forms of “hybrid creep”– the broader office recovery appears poised to reassert itself in the new year.
For more data-driven office insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Limited-service restaurants faced a challenging landscape in 2025, with many price-sensitive consumers pulling back on dining out in favor of grocery prepared meals and brown-bag lunches. Traffic was harder to come by, and everyday demand softened across much of the category.
Even so, chains found creative ways to stand out. We dug into the data behind the busiest weeks of the year for quick-service and fast-casual restaurants to understand what actually moved traffic – and which strategies are most likely to help brands compete in what’s shaping up to be another value-conscious year.
1. Eye-Catching Discounts That Cut Through the Noise
Everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. Yet unsurprisingly, freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds.
The chains featured in the chart below all saw their highest weekly traffic peaks during promotions that felt distinctive, easy to understand, and clearly worth acting on. Some – like Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day and Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Free Slider Day – involved no-purchase-necessary giveaways. Others relied on steep, attention-grabbing discounts, such as Whataburger’s Anniversary 75-cent burger and Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesday promo, or culturally timed activations like Chipotle’s Stanley Cup–inspired hockey jersey BOGO.
For 2026, the takeaway is clear: Discounting still works, but the offers likely to truly motivate consumers are the ones that stand out from the everyday value they already expect.
2. Culture Can Rival Free
Fortunately for restaurants, however, deep discounts and giveaways aren’t the only way to draw crowds - if they were, the economics wouldn’t be sustainable for long. In 2025, culture-driven moments came surprisingly close to matching the power of freebies, without the same margin trade-offs.
Take Krispy Kreme, for example. The chain’s annual National Donut Day promotion – including a no-purchase-necessary free donut and a $2 dozen with the purchase of 12 more – produced the chain’s largest single-day visit spike of the year (+219.7% versus an average day on June 6th, 2025) and helped push weekly visits to a yearly high.
But Krispy Kreme’s Back to Hogwarts collection which launched on August 18, 2025, generated a more sustained lift that nearly matched National Donut Day’s impact at the weekly level. While the campaign did include a free donut giveaway on Saturday, August 23rd for fans representing their favorite house, the data shows the surge wasn’t driven by the freebie alone: Traffic jumped 40.7% above an average Monday on launch day, compared with a 30.9% lift over an average Saturday on the day of the giveaway.
At McDonald’s and Burger King, too, pop-culture tie-ins dominated the promotional calendar. For both chains, the week of December 1st emerged as the busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest YoY weekly visit increase.
At Burger King, the lift came from the chain’s SpongeBob Movie Menu – starring the Krabby Whopper – launched on December 1st ahead of the film’s December 19th release. The promotion drove an 18.4% YoY traffic increase, with traffic – largely flat or down since September – remaining elevated in the weeks that followed.
At McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed Grinched Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food leader’s highly successful Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October. The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest year-over-year visit spikes during the weeks of October 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of December 1st and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month.
The lesson here is twofold: Well-timed promotions tied to widely recognized cultural moments can still drive outsized traffic on their own, as Krispy Kreme and Burger King’s activations showed. But McDonald’s performance also underscores the value of sequencing – using one successful launch to carry momentum into the next.
3. Bearista: Storytelling and Scarcity
Speaking of timing and sequencing, Starbucks’ viral Bearista offering, launched strategically just before the Brand’s iconic Red Cup Day, shows how well-timed promotions can compound impact.
Red Cup Day during the week of November 10th was Starbucks’ busiest day of 2025. But the week of Bearista (November 3rd) came awfully close – and delivered the brand’s largest YoY weekly visit increase of 2025. Just as importantly, the Bearista launch helped build visit momentum, setting the stage for what ultimately became Starbucks’ biggest Red Cup Day ever.
Consumers lining up to pay $30 for the Bearista also challenged another long-held assumption about QSR traffic in 2025: that offerings have to be cheap to deliver results. What makes this especially notable is that Bearista wasn’t tied to a movie release or external cultural IP. It was brand-first, premium-priced merchandise that still drove traffic at scale. And while not easily replicated, Starbucks’ Bearista success shows that scarcity, storytelling, and timing can unlock value beyond low-price promotions.
4. Ummm… What About Food?
If you’ve gotten this far, you might be wondering: What about food? Don’t people still go to restaurants to eat – and aren’t craveable menu items supposed to drive traffic?
The answer is yes. Amid all the noise around discounts, collaborations, and merchandise, food still mattered in 2025. At Popeyes, the June 2nd launch of Chicken Wraps, priced accessibly at $3.99, drove the chain’s busiest week of the year. While wraps weren’t totally new to Popeyes’ menu, this rollout was framed as a value-forward, easy-to-understand innovation at a moment when affordability mattered – and consumers responded.
At Taco Bell and KFC, food-driven traffic spikes leaned more heavily on nostalgia. Taco Bell’s limited-time revival of Cheesy Street Chalupas and Quesaritos lifted visits roughly 8% above average, while KFC saw an even larger jump (11.4%) with the return of Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings. These weren’t experimental launches, but deliberate re-releases of proven favorites, giving diners something familiar and a reason to act quickly.
Together, these examples show that even in a crowded promotional landscape, menu remains a core traffic lever – and that clearly positioned items can rise above the noise without flashy add-ons.
Lessons for 2026
The busiest weeks of 2025 show that even in a tough, value-conscious environment, limited-service restaurants still have multiple, proven ways to drive traffic. From clear deep discounts that rise above the noise to culture-led moments, narrative-driven merchandise, and well-timed menu strategies also delivered some of the year’s strongest results.
As QSRs and fast-casual chains look ahead to 2026, the data suggests that winning won’t hinge on any single tactic, but on choosing the right lever for the right moment, and executing it clearly enough to cut through a crowded landscape.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.a/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom metro area is emerging as one of California’s most resilient growth stories. Between 2021 and 2023, the region added residents at a steady, if modest, pace, even as the state overall faced declining or stagnant population trends. And by 2024, the CBSA pulled ahead of the national metro average for year-over-year (YoY) population growth, outpacing major California peers including Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego.
What’s driving this momentum? And how is Sacramento’s rise shaping local retail and dining trends?
People Powering Progress
One factor behind Sacramento’s rise may be its economic diversity. The metro area is over-indexed for a broad cross-section of audience segments, ranging from wealthy and upper suburban families earning more than $100K to young urban singles and professionals bringing in less than $75K. And though the area’s median household income (HHI) sits below the California baseline, the diversity of household types – each contributing different spending patterns – creates a strong foundation for continued economic growth.
Retail on a Roll
Location analytics also show that Sacramento’s expanding, economically diverse population is fueling a flourishing retail scene. From May through October 2025, overall retail visits in the CBSA rose YoY, outperforming California’s state average and keeping pace with national trends. In several key categories – including discount and dollar stores, home furnishings, superstores, and traditional apparel – the metro area exceeded both state and national benchmarks, underscoring Sacramento’s rising consumer strength and regional momentum.
Dining Finds Its Groove
Greater Sacramento’s dining scene is also thriving. Fast-casual and quick-service chains overperformed during the analyzed period, reflecting the region’s growing base of young professionals, urban singles, and families who may favor convenient, affordable dining choices. And while full-service chain visits dipped slightly below 2024 levels, they represented only 12.2% of total traffic across the three dining segments for the period.
A City at the Center
Sacramento’s broader rise is also closely tied to the vitality of the city itself. The chart below shows that out-of-market visits – defined here as visits by people who neither live nor work in the city – rose 3.5% YoY over the past 6 months. This influx includes visitors from across the metro and beyond – and HHI data indicates that, on average, they tend to be more affluent than local residents.
These visitors are drawn to Sacramento’s concentration of independent restaurants, bars, retail, and cultural hubs, including its bustling Midtown neighborhood. And a growing calendar of major annual events, from Aftershock to Farm to Fork, is also helping to supercharge local tourism and cement the city’s regional appeal.
Sacramento’s Upward Arc
Bolstered by investments in major new semiconductor plants and medical centers, the Sacramento CBSA was recently ranked among LinkedIn’s 25 fastest-growing U.S. metro areas for jobs and new talent. And the region’s demographic breadth, strong retail and dining performance, and increasingly magnetic urban core position it for continued growth.
For more data-driven analyses of the trends shaping America’s cities follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Home-cooked meals may anchor the holidays, yet dining out remains a key part of the seasonal rhythm. Examining how visits trended last year helps illuminate which segments could gain the most traction this December and where holiday dining demand may concentrate.
Fine Dining Leads the Holiday Charge
While the holiday season is a major period for retail, some dining segments also experience a notable lift. Visits to the coffee category outperformed their 2024 weekly average in November, likely boosted by the appeal of leading chains' holiday menu and the popularity of Starbucks' Red Cup Day. The category saw another surge the week before Christmas, as shoppers sought out caffeine to power through last-minute errands.
Full-service restaurants tend to see visitation build towards the end of the holiday season – visits were 7.1% higher than average the week of December 16th, 2024, and remained elevated during the week of Christmas, even as other dining categories experienced slight dips. This likely reflects the shift from workday and errand-driven routines to family gatherings, out-of-town guests, and special-occasion meals. Meanwhile, categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to soften as commuting, shopping, and other everyday behaviors pause for the holiday.
Meanwhile, fast-casual and quick-service segments trended lower during holidays than they did during the rest of the year – though the week before Christmas bucked the trend, likely lifted by shoppers stopping for quick meals amid last-minute errands.
Upscale Dining Leads Full-Service Growth
Within full-service dining, upscale and fine-dining concepts were the clear standouts of the season. The segment saw steady gains throughout December, culminating in a 33.7% jump the week of December 16th and remaining elevated into Christmas week – a pattern likely supported by companies and large groups booking higher-end restaurants for end-of-year celebrations.
Breakfast-first chains, by contrast, showed softer performance for most of the period and only saw meaningful lifts during family-focused holiday weeks, when out-of-town visitors and holiday traditions drove more morning and brunch outings.
Casual dining and eatertainment concepts also experienced holiday-related bumps, but in distinct ways. Casual dining saw a brief boost the week of November 11th, likely tied to Veterans Day promotions, and then a more meaningful lift the week before Christmas as consumers grabbed convenient meals while running last-minute errands. Eatertainment venues, on the other hand, peaked during Christmas week, benefiting from families seeking activity-based outings once holiday gatherings were underway. While neither category matched the sustained strength of upscale dining, each captured demand consistent with the role they play in the holiday dining cycle.
Lead-up To The Holidays
Looking ahead to this year’s holiday season, the year-over-year dining patterns point to a dining landscape led once again by upscale and fine dining. This segment is the only one showing consistent momentum heading into November, with steady gains that suggest another strong December for premium full-service concepts.
The rest of the full-service category is entering the season on more uneven footing. Breakfast-first chains, eatertainment venues, and casual dining brands are all tracking close to or below last year’s levels, with several weeks of declines and only brief periods of improvement. While the weeks of November 10th and 17th offer early signs of stabilization for some segments, the broader picture remains mixed.
Still, holiday dining behaviors typically shift sharply as Thanksgiving, Christmas travel, and family gatherings come into focus. If past patterns hold, all four segments may see meaningful late-season lifts – but upscale dining is the category best positioned to outperform as the holidays accelerate.
Ready, Set, Dine!
Upscale and fine dining, coffee, and breakfast-first chains demonstrated clear seasonal lifts last year. As December approaches, will these patterns re-emerge, or will consumer caution lead to wider pull-backs among the dining segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
“Turkey Wednesday” – the day before Thanksgiving – is the Black Friday of the grocery sector. Shoppers flock to supermarkets nationwide to pick up everything from turkey to cranberry sauce. And for grocery retailers, the resulting traffic surge marks one of the most important days of the year.
So with the holiday just under our (admittedly, slightly loosened) belts, we dug into the data to see how this year’s milestone performed. Did economic uncertainty or online alternatives keep shoppers home? Or did the milestone drive results?
Turkey Wednesday Delivers the Big Lift
The data leaves little room for doubt: Turkey Wednesday delivered once again. On November 26th, 2025, visits to grocery stores surged 82.6% above the average day from November 2024 through October 2025. And across the full pre-Thanksgiving week (November 20th–26th), traffic climbed 26.8% above the weekly average.
Turkey Wednesday this year also outperformed 2024: Year over year (YoY), overall grocery visits increased 5.8% on Turkey Wednesday, while the average number of visits per individual location rose 4.8%. And looking at the entire week before Thanksgiving, overall traffic and average visits per location rose 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively.
A Two-Phased Shopping Period
Which grocery segments contributed the most to the pre-holiday traffic surge? Digging into the data for different grocery formats reveals a clear divide between Turkey Wednesday itself and the days leading up to the milestone, with each segment contributing at different moments.
On Turkey Wednesday, traditional supermarkets came out on top. Visits to chains like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B climbed 85.6% above their 12-month daily average, a larger jump than in 2024. Value and specialty chains also posted YoY gains that outpaced last year – though their spikes were smaller than those seen at traditional grocers.
But widening the lens to the entire week before Thanksgiving reveals a more nuanced picture. While traditional grocery chains dominated Turkey Wednesday itself, value grocery stores have become increasingly vital destinations during the broader pre-holiday period. Over the full week, value grocery visits rose 27.8% above their weekly baseline, edging out the 26.8% increase for traditional supermarkets.
This early-week advantage for budget chains suggests that many price-sensitive shoppers may be planning ahead, spreading trips across multiple days and hunting for better deals before the last-minute rush.
Value Spikes Early While Traditional Wins on the Big Day
Daily visit patterns further highlight the split between early value planners and day-of shoppers. As the chart below shows, value grocery chains consistently outperformed traditional grocers from Thursday, November 20th through Tuesday, November 24th, as shoppers did the bulk of their shopping. Specialty grocers also kept close pace with traditional supermarkets during this period, occasionally pulling slightly ahead.
Then, on Turkey Wednesday, traditional grocery took the lead with a 104.1% jump over a typical Wednesday – well above the other segments. When shoppers move into last-minute mode, it’s the traditional chains’ broad assortments and familiar layouts that draw them in for those final items.
From Stock-Ups to Top-Offs
But while value grocers benefit most from the early phase of holiday shopping, visit-duration data shows that the two-phase pattern plays out across all segments. Between November 20th and 25th, average dwell times rose across grocery formats, peaking on Monday and Tuesday for traditional chains and over the weekend for value and specialty grocers.
Then, on Turkey Wednesday, dwell times eased back from those peak levels – reflecting a shift toward faster, more targeted trips to grab missing ingredients or finalize meal prep. The shift from longer, more deliberate outings to shorter, last-minute stops underscores the two-step rhythm of Thanksgiving shopping: thoughtful planning early on, followed by efficient wrap-ups as the holiday approaches.
Strong Performance Across the Board
Differences between segments notwithstanding, leading grocery chains across formats saw meaningful YoY traffic gains, both on Turkey Wednesday and during the full pre-holiday week. As shown by the chart below, major chains from Trader Joe’s to Meijer experienced YoY increases in the average number of visits to each location during the pre-Thanksgiving rush, pointing to widespread sector-wide strength during the milestone.
A Sign of Good Things to Come
Grocery’s strong performance on Turkey Wednesday – the first big milestone of the holiday period – offers a welcome sign of shopper resilience in a season defined by concerns over confidence.
And as the festive season continues, grocery chains across formats can use these insights to refine their layouts, promotions, and assortments to capture even more pre-holiday traffic. Traditional grocery chains, for example, may look to strengthen their value-focused offerings to appeal to early planners in the pre-Christmas period, while value grocers might consider strategies to capture more of the last-minute traffic that intensifies as the holiday approaches.
For more data-driven grocery insights check out Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
BOPIS, Anyone?
During the quarter ending August 16, 2025, Kroger’s same-store sales (excl. fuel) rose 3.4% year over year, slightly outperforming the prior reporting period’s 3.2% increase. Behind that steady sales growth is a surge in digital engagement: E-commerce sales – including BOPIS (buy-online-pickup-in-store) – jumped 16.0%, building on an already impressive 15.0% increase the previous quarter.
This digital momentum is showing up in store traffic as well. Over the past several months, total visits to Kroger’s banners have grown modestly, between 0.4% and 3.3% year over year (YoY). But short visits (under ten minutes) have really accelerated, suggesting rising shopper appetite for curbside and in-store pickup – an especially promising sign for the grocery leader as it doubles down on digital profitability. Last week, Kroger announced the closure of several automated facilities and a pivot toward store-based fulfillment and third-party delivery partnerships. And with the increasing use of BOPIS, that strategy appears well-aligned with how many customers are already choosing to shop.
Zooming in on Kroger’s Leading Banners
Zooming in on Kroger’s individual brands reveals a similar trend. Short visits led the way across all major Kroger banners, from its namesake stores to Fred Meyer’s hypercenter format. At the same time, longer in-store visits also trended upward, showing that traditional in-store shopping remains resilient even as digital and pickup channels expand.
And like many other retailers, all Kroger brands saw positive YoY visit growth in October. This renewed strength in a category like grocery that doesn’t typically feature major October promotions may signal improving consumer resilience heading into the holidays.
Momentum Into Q4
Foot traffic patterns highlight Kroger’s growing strength in balancing digital convenience with in-store engagement. And as the company refines its fulfillment model, its ability to efficiently serve customers across channels may prove to be a key competitive edge as Q4 wears on.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
