Lila Margalit

With prices still elevated and consumer sentiment down significantly from last year, appetite for savings is stronger than ever. But as shoppers pull back on non-essentials, how are discretionary-oriented value chains like Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet holding up?

A Strong Finish to 2025 – And Momentum in the New Year

In its most recent reported quarter (ending November 1, 2025), Ollie’s delivered a 3.3% increase in same-store sales, driven by a mid-single-digit rise in transactions even as average ticket declined slightly. Five Below posted even stronger comp growth (+14.3%), fueled by both higher transaction counts and larger baskets. 

And both chains saw solid year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth during the final months of 2025 – including the all-important holiday season – and into 2026. This performance suggests that even in a cautious consumer environment, demand for discretionary value remains resilient.

Loyalty is the Name of the Game

Customer loyalty is also increasing at both chains. For Ollie’s, which enjoys a slightly higher share of repeat visits, loyalty – fueled by its constantly shifting inventory of closeout merchandise – is further reinforced by the growing Ollie’s Army rewards program. 

For Five Below, the gains appear to reflect the strength of its value positioning and evolving mix of affordable, fun indulgences – from seasonal décor to trendy toys – that create a steady cadence of newness and encourage frequent visits, even without a formal loyalty program.

And as both chains continue to grow, sustaining this repeat engagement will be critical to supporting comps and maximizing productivity across an expanding store base.

Value That’s Scaling

With traffic growth supported by a growing base of loyal customers, the discount segment appears well-positioned to maintain its edge into 2026. But how much runway remains before expansion begins to dilute store productivity?

Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Dollar General and Dollar Tree have both been thriving, delivering positive same-store comps for several quarters in a row even as they continue expanding their footprints. But how long can both keep winning? As the two chains grow, will the overlap between them begin to pressure performance?

A Growing Demand Pie

Despite intensifying competition from mass merchants like Walmart, the data suggests that Dollar General and Dollar Tree still have meaningful runway for growth. Both retailers are expanding their footprints while maintaining traffic at existing stores – a sign of robust demand.

Dollar General, now a staple grocery destination for many households, posted mid- to high-single-digit same-store traffic gains between September 2025 and January 2026, even as it deepened its expansion into rural America. Meanwhile, Dollar Tree, which added more than 300 stores over the past year, maintained flat to modestly positive same-store traffic trends. 

As price-conscious consumers prioritize value, overall demand for dollar stores appears to be expanding rather than simply shifting between banners.

Different Shopping Missions

Visitor behavior at the two chains helps explain why there is room for both to continue expanding. In addition to serving different geographies – Dollar General maintains a stronger presence in rural communities and in the eastern United States, while Dollar Tree has greater penetration in the West – the banners also fulfill different shopping missions.

As the chart below shows, 25.0% of Dollar General visitors in 2025 were frequent shoppers, defined as four or more visits in an average month, compared to just 9.2% at Dollar Tree. Average dwell time also diverged, with shoppers spending 20.0 minutes per visit at Dollar General versus 13.6 minutes at Dollar Tree.

Those patterns suggest that Dollar General functions as a routine essentials stop embedded in weekly shopping habits – a consumables-driven positioning that appears to be strengthening as the company expands large-format stores and invests further in fresh food offerings. 

Dollar Tree, by contrast, plays a more targeted role, capturing shorter, mission-driven trips often tied to seasonal goods, party supplies, or discretionary bargains. And as it leans further into higher-ticket discretionary items through its multi-price 3.0 format – while also expanding its consumables assortment – the chain is reinforcing its treasure-hunt appeal while gradually becoming more relevant for routine trips.

Room for Two in a Growing Category

All in all, the data points to a category that is expanding rather than consolidating. Consistent same-store visit growth, ongoing store expansion, and differentiated shopping behavior all suggest that Dollar General and Dollar Tree are thriving side by side – serving distinct missions within a shared value-driven ecosystem.

For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Over the past two years, Costco has made several moves that risked upsetting its famously loyal customer base – including raising membership fees in September 2024 and restricting food court access to members only. But visit data suggests that, rather than deterring shoppers, these changes have supported rising engagement and a broadening customer base.

Visits Stay Resilient

The chart below shows that Costco entered 2026 with solid visit momentum. Both total and same-store visits posted healthy year-over-year gains through the back half of 2025 and into January.

That resilience aligns with recent earnings reports, which show Costco delivering consistent mid-single-digit comparable sales growth throughout 2025. By raising the “cost of commitment,” Costco may be discouraging casual or opportunistic users while deepening engagement among shoppers who do the math and shop more frequently to justify the fee.

A Younger, Broader Audience

Perhaps the clearest signal of Costco’s durable positioning lies in its evolving demographic profile. While the chain continues to over-index on affluent consumers, it is also attracting a growing cohort of younger shoppers, reflected in the chart below by a rising share of “Contemporary Households” – a young-skewing segment comprising singles, married couples without children, and non-family households. As this cohort has expanded, Costco’s overall income profile has also subtly broadened.

The persistence of this shift despite higher fees challenges the notion that price increases drive exclusivity. For many households, the fee remains a rational trade-off for reliable savings – and the broader reach gives Costco added leverage to negotiate pricing and defend margins.

The Bottom Line

Costco’s recent moves show that pricing power and scale don’t have to be trade-offs. By pairing higher fees with stricter enforcement, the company is strengthening loyalty, preserving value perception, and widening its appeal to younger households – all while keeping traffic strong. That combination leaves Costco unusually well positioned as cost pressures persist: a retailer with both the volume to command supplier leverage and a member base committed enough to sustain it.

For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor. 

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Since taking the reins in 2023, Gap Inc. CEO Richard Dickson has pursued a turnaround strategy aimed at reinvigorating the legacy apparel retailer, with promising results so far. Did that positive momentum carry through the end of the year? And what can location analytics reveal about the role of each of Gap Inc.’s largest banners in powering the company’s recovery?

From Reset to Results

Recent foot traffic data points to solid traffic momentum at Gap Inc. With the exception of a brief dip in December – likely driven by holiday demand pulling forward into November, along with one fewer Sunday compared to 2024 – year-over-year (YoY) company-level visits remained consistently positive over the past six months.

Throughout the period, same-store visits slightly outpaced total traffic, reflecting a more optimized fleet following the closure of several underperforming stores over the past year. Gap Inc’s robust traffic patterns also align with recent earnings commentary showing positive company-level in-store comparable sales in Q3 2025 and improving execution across Gap’s leading brands, as the company continues its strategic reset.

Old Navy Anchors Stability While Gap Captures Seasonal Upside

Looking at the company’s two largest brands shows that each is contributing to the company’s rebound in a different way. In Q4 2025, Gap slightly outperformed Old Navy on a quarterly basis, with banner-level traffic up 1.6% YoY, compared with 1.2% at Old Navy. However, Old Navy delivered more consistent monthly gains throughout the analyzed period – including in September, when Gap experienced a modest decline.

Gap’s traffic trends were notably more variable, with a stronger YoY lift in November, likely reflecting the brand’s greater sensitivity to seasonal storytelling and early holiday demand. This responsiveness was especially apparent on Black Friday, when Gap visits surged 504.4% above its 2025 daily average, compared with a still-robust but more measured 436.4% increase at Old Navy.

Old Navy’s smoother monthly performance likely reflects its role as the portfolio’s stability engine, with value-driven and replenishment trips supporting steady traffic throughout the year. Gap, on the other hand, appears to fulfill a more discretionary function, with visits responding more sharply to merchandising, marketing, and holiday timing.

Visitor Behavior Defines Different Demand Curves

Visitor behavior data for Gap and Old Navy further reinforces the two brands’ distinct positionings. Old Navy attracts longer, more frequent visits that skew toward weekdays, signaling habitual shopping tied to browsing, value-seeking, and building everyday wardrobe essentials. Gap, meanwhile, sees shorter, less frequent visits that are more likely to occur on weekends – consistent with more discretionary trips tied to seasonal needs, inspiration, or occasional splurges.

Doubling Down on Each Brand’s Natural Strengths

These differences between the two banners may help shape how Gap Inc. approaches its next phase of growth. In January 2026, the company leaned into “fashiontainment” with the appointment of former Paramount executive Pam Kaufman as Chief Entertainment Officer. At the same time, it has begun expanding into beauty and accessories, including the launch of Beauty Co. at 150 Old Navy locations nationwide.

As these strategies roll out, allowing them to express themselves differently across Gap and Old Navy could help maximize the strengths of each banner. At Gap, fashiontainment may lend itself to high-impact cultural moments and narrative-driven campaigns that tap into the brand’s strengths in nostalgia and storytelling – such as last year’s Better in Denim campaign featuring Katseye. At Old Navy, the same idea may be most effective through large-scale, family-friendly partnerships that reinforce its role as a dependable, mass-market destination – like the Disney collaboration launched last May. A similar dynamic could emerge in beauty, with Old Navy’s Beauty Co. supporting frequent, routine visits, and beauty at Gap reinforcing fashion authority and cultural relevance rather than driving habit.

For more insights into the consumer patterns shaping retail strategy, follow Placer.ai/anchor.  

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Digital and Physical Retail Move in Parallel

E-commerce distribution centers outpaced brick-and-mortar retail chains in year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth throughout the 2025 holiday stretch. This pattern aligns with broader holiday-season data showing that e-commerce sales growth exceeded brick-and-mortar growth in 2025.

Still, physical retail continued to account for the majority of total holiday spending, and in-store visits also saw steady, positive YoY growth throughout the season. The data points to a retail environment where digital and physical channels are not competing for relevance but operating in parallel, each capturing different dimensions of consumer demand. That dynamic carried into the new year as well: January 2026 visits remained above year-ago levels for both e-commerce distribution centers and brick-and-mortar retail, rising 2.6% and 1.8% YoY, respectively.

When Foot Traffic and Sentiment Diverge

Visits to Placer.ai’s Industrial Manufacturing Index, on the other hand, softened in January 2026, following stronger YoY momentum in December. At first glance, this decline may seem surprising: January marked a clear improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6% – its first expansionary reading in at least a year – and the Production sub-index also improving. While the ISM captures month-over-month shifts in sentiment rather than year-over-year change, a sharply improving outlook may seem inconsistent with such a steep YoY decline following a positive month.

But a closer look at the weekly data helps explain the divergence. Sentiment surveys capture outlook, orders, and expectations, while foot traffic reflects physical, on-site activity. Winter Storm Fern, which caused widespread disruptions late in the month, weighed heavily on manufacturing visits and pulled down the overall January figure. Weather events like this can meaningfully suppress foot traffic even as underlying sentiment improves – and they tend to register far more clearly in mobility data than in survey-based indicators.

Calendar effects likely contributed as well. January 2026 had one fewer working day than January 2025, a difference that can have an outsized impact on visit-based measures tied to operational and industrial activity.

Looking Forward

Overall, the data points to an economy that ended 2025 with solid momentum across consumer-facing channels, even as early-2026 manufacturing activity reflected short-term disruption. As weather normalizes, will on-the-ground industrial activity rebound?

Follow Placer.ai/anchor for more data-driven insights into the trends shaping retail, logistics, and manufacturing.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.

Traditional department stores aren’t going anywhere. But over the past several years, the balance of power has shifted decisively toward retailers like off-price chains with the clearest value story. The latest signal of that shift came as Saks Global – parent of Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman – filed for bankruptcy and began closing stores.

How wide has the gap between department stores and off-price really become? And what lies in store for the two categories in 2026?

The Visit Pie Gets Re-Sliced

The chart below shows just how dramatically the category split has changed since 2019. Pre-COVID, department stores held a slight edge, capturing just over half of visits to the two segments. But by 2025, that relationship had fully reversed, with off-price claiming a remarkable 62.9% share of visits. As consumers grow more price-sensitive and the retail landscape becomes more bifurcated, traditional department stores have struggled to articulate a clear competitive edge – while off-price continues to benefit from a straightforward, discovery-driven model.

Treasure Hunt Stays Hot

Year-over-year data reinforces the structural strength of the off-price model. In Q4, the segment once again delivered solid gains, extending a winning streak that’s become harder for traditional department stores to match.

Notably, all four major off-price players expanded their footprints over the past year, and in each case overall visit growth outpaced per-location gains. Ross Dress for Less led the group with per-location visit growth ranging from 11.5% to 7.7% between October 2025 and January 2026. Some of that strength reflects easier baseline comparisons, but the scale of the gain still signals durable demand. Burlington delivered 9.4% overall visit growth even as per-location visits were essentially flat at -0.3%, a pattern consistent with rapid store expansion paired with steady interest at existing locations.

Meanwhile, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls turned in low single-digit gains while lapping a strong prior year: T.J. Maxx grew 2.1% per-location and 2.8% overall, while Marshalls rose 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively. 

The Department Store Divide

Department stores, by contrast, faced a more challenging traffic environment, with several chains continuing to shrink their footprints. Yet even within the category, performance was mixed. And the brands with the clearest identities – whether rooted in regional loyalty or premium, service-led positioning – continued to thrive. 

Regional players led the traditional segment, with Von Maur seeing the most pronounced and consistent per-location growth during the analyzed period. Repeatedly ranked “America’s Best Department Store” by Newsweek, the chain has built its reputation on a differentiated, service-first in-store experience. Boscov’s, another regional operator with a loyal customer base, delivered a solid Q4 as well, even though per-location traffic dipped slightly YoY in December and January.

Among national banners, several higher-end brands also showed relative strength. Nordstrom – long associated with standout customer service – grew per-location visits by 4.2% YoY in Q4, even as overall traffic slipped 0.6% amid store closures. Bloomingdale’s posted 1.9% per-location growth. And while Saks Fifth Avenue has faced well-publicized corporate headwinds, its traffic declines remained comparatively modest in Q4.

The pressure was most visible among mid-market chains without a sharply defined value or experiential proposition. Kohl’s saw per-location visits fall 3.2%, with overall traffic down 5.0%, while JCPenney declined 3.8% and 5.5%, respectively. Macy’s, meanwhile, saw overall traffic drop as it continued rightsizing – though per-location visits held relatively steady, suggesting its turnaround strategy is beginning to bear fruit.

Rewarding Clarity

The Q4 data underscores a defining theme in department store and off-price retail: Consumers are rewarding clarity. Off-price is winning on value and discovery, regionals are winning on loyalty, and premium banners are holding up where the experience is distinct. In a bifurcated retail environment, the middle is the toughest place to be.

For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.

Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.