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Growing at Its Own Pace…
Since arriving in the U.S. nearly a decade ago, Lidl has undergone several leadership changes as it sought to adapt its European format for an American audience. The company’s newest CEO, Alan Barry, who took the helm in July, has emphasized stability, signaling plans to maintain a measured pace of expansion in key markets while working to further differentiate Lidl in a crowded field of private-label discounters.
And foot traffic data suggests that, despite Lidl’s challenges, Barry has inherited a company on solid footing for the next phase of that strategy.
…While Still Pulling Ahead of Local Value Grocery
Lidl’s footprint and expansion strategy remain concentrated on the East Coast. And within the markets where it operates, recent foot traffic data suggests the chain is more than holding its own against the broader value grocery segment.
Between January and August 2026, overall visits to Lidl grew YoY nearly every month, consistently outperforming the wider value grocery segment across its nine East Coast states and Washington, D.C.
While much of this outperformance reflects Lidl’s expanding store base, average visits per location also outpaced the segment for most of the analyzed period, turning positive in July and August 2026. And since June, Lidl’s per-location visit growth has even exceeded overall visit growth for the broader local value grocery segment.
Heading Into the Peak
Lidl has spent 2026 outgrowing the value grocery segment in the markets it has chosen to concentrate on. The months ahead, and the holiday season in particular, will test that lead against a category running at its yearly peak.
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Two Limited-Assortment Playbooks
Aldi and Trader Joe’s are corporate cousins: Trader Joe’s belongs to Aldi Nord, while Aldi’s US stores are owned by Aldi Süd – two companies formed after their German parent business split in the 1960s. The family resemblance shows on the shelves – both run stores well below the average supermarket’s square footage, stock a fraction of the SKUs, and lean on private labels far more heavily than the rest of the industry. And both ask shoppers to trade away a wider selection for a unique offering.
Where they differ is in what that offering looks like. Aldi is built around no-frills value for the basics, while Trader Joe’s focuses on specialty products, affordable indulgences, and a treasure-hunt experience. And in today’s strained economy, both these propositions have proved compelling.
Trader Joe’s: Built Around the Drop
Specialty cheese, charcuterie, prepared foods and seasonal snacks – all priced competitively – give shoppers plenty of reasons to visit Trader Joe’s on a regular basis. But it’s the steady drumbeat of inexpensive limited releases that make the biggest visit splashes.
When Trader Joe’s shrank their signature canvas tote bag in early 2024, for example, the miniatures flew off the shelves, reselling online at many times their $3 price tag. And the chain’s fresh takes on the mini-tote this year continued to draw crowds.
On May 20th, 2026, Trader Joe’s released an insulated mini tote, driving visits 13.7% above the chain’s average Wednesday. Then, on June 17th, the chain followed up with a pastel mini version of its signature canvas bag (now with stripes), and visits spiked 43.7% above the Wednesday average. The surge carried into the next two days, with Thursday visits up 28.1% versus the same-weekday average and Friday up 19.7%.
Trader Joe’s Visits Climb Through the Summer
And year-over-year visit data suggests that Trader Joe’s mix of specialty products and limited-time releases is bringing more shoppers through the door. Overall visits grew by mid-single to double digits YoY throughout H1 2026 and into the summer, as Trader Joe’s continued to expand its fleet. But same-store visits also remained positive for most of the analyzed period, strengthening into the summer – showing that existing stores were also gaining momentum.
Even April’s dip – the only analyzed month to see a significant visit decline – serves to underscore the power of Trader Joe’s limited-time drops. Last year’s highly successful mini tote release took place in April, lifting visits 21.2% above the same-weekday average and sustaining double-digit gains for six straight days. This year, the release moved to June, leaving April to lap an unusually strong promotional period without a comparable draw.
Aldi: Built Around the Basics
Aldi, for its part, is laser-focused on providing the lowest-cost overall grocery trip, with below-market value at the core of its proposition. And that positioning – which attracts a more budget-conscious audience – has helped make it a natural destination for routine grocery runs.
In H1 2026, more than one-fifth (21.2%) of Aldi visitors made three or more visits in an average month, compared with 14.3% for Trader Joe’s. Aldi also drew more of its shoppers from nearby, further reinforcing its role as a regular, convenient stop.
A Steadily Growing Audience
That strong value proposition appears to be helping Aldi steadily grow its audience. Between January and August 2026, overall visits to Aldi rose between 1.3% and 6.4% YoY each month, driven largely by the chain’s rapid expansion – the fastest in the grocery sector.
Same-store visits, meanwhile, have generally hovered around last year’s levels – though some months saw modest dips that may partly reflect tough comparisons. In February and March, for example, Aldi was lapping the egg shortage of early 2025, when record egg prices may have helped push more shoppers toward lower-cost grocery options. And a Labor Day calendar shift, which moved the holiday weekend entirely into September this year, may have removed a boost the month enjoyed in August 2025.
Still, for a chain expanding this quickly – and one that saw double-digit per-location growth through much of 2024 – steady traffic at existing stores suggests Aldi is holding on to the customers it has won even as it grows its audience through new ones.
More Than One Setting
Aldi’s and Trader Joe’s success shows that the small-assortment model can have more than one setting. Aldi turns it towards price – fewer SKUs, cheaper milk. Trader Joe’s turns it towards discovery – fewer SKUs, but one of them is Everything But the Bagel seasoning.
And though neither setting is fixed – Trader Joe’s keeps its exclusives affordable, while Aldi’s treasure-hunt-focused “Aisle of Shame” has a devoted following of its own – each is finding success by leaning into its core strength. Looking ahead, the question is whether each chain can continue capitalizing on those strengths to grow their reach.
For more data-driven retail analyses, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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Value is Relative
The first half of 2026 has served dining – and full-service restaurants in particular – a plate full of challenges. Sustained inflation and elevated gas prices have led squeezed consumers to spend more intentionally and reduce dining out. Upscale chains have generally fared better, as diners save their spending for special occasions.
But casual chains with strong differentiation and greater perceived value have continued improving as well – as shown by the performance of Darden’s three largest brands. Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen have each staked out a distinct approach to value that has kept visits steady or growing in recent months. Olive Garden’s value is measured against your own appetite, LongHorn’s against the butcher counter, and Cheddar’s against everyone else in casual dining.
Darden Outpaces the Category
As in previous quarters, Darden’s grew its company traffic base in Q2 2026. Overall visits increased 3.4% year over year (YoY) on average, bettering the full-service restaurant industry, which declined 0.8%. Darden’s average visits per location also grew 1.3%, showing that increased visits are not exclusively driven by its expanding footprint; a good sign for a company planning continued expansion in the new fiscal year. Meanwhile, the per-location average came in at 0.1% across other full-service restaurants (FSRs).
Olive Garden: Value by the Plate
Darden’s Q2 outperformance was led by its three largest casual dining brands – Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen – each of which grew both overall and same-store visits with a distinct approach to value.
Olive Garden’s value position combines consistent abundance with the occasional Italian-style cornucopia to attract visitors. Unlimited soup, salad, and breadsticks are a daily mainstay, while seasonal deals like spring’s Buy One Take One and autumn’s Never-Ending Pasta Bowl (and Pass) encourage customers to try and capture the biggest bang for their buck.
And visits have followed. Olive Garden’s overall traffic rose 1.7% in Q2, with same-store traffic also positive. And even in August, when consumer sentiment fell due to fears of elevated inflation, overall traffic rose while same-store visits held steady.
LongHorn Steakhouse: Value by the Pound
LongHorn’s positioning, by contrast, takes advantage of how it compares to the grocery store. As beef prices spiked in the last year, LongHorn moderately raised menu prices but kept them below beef inflation – increasing its relative value to the meat aisle for consumers that continued to perceive steak as an element to special occasions.
The visit data indicates customers seized the bargain opportunity. Same-store visits have been positive since January, while overall visits ran higher still as the chain continued opening restaurants.
Cheddar’s: Value by the Check
Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, meanwhile, competes on the number at the bottom of the bill. Its $19.50 average check is the smallest in Darden’s portfolio, and it draws from markets with the lowest median household income of any Darden banner. Management has described Cheddar’s advantage as “wow price and speed,” all while maintaining a top affordability ranking among casual dining brands.
The traffic suggests that the position is holding. Same-store visits were positive in four of five months, with overall visits up in all five. Cheddar’s made-from-scratch menu gives cost-conscious diners a way to spend less without feeling like they are trading down on quality.
Value by the Portfolio
Darden’s approach has been to avoid relying on a single brand, cuisine, or price point. This diversification and scale have largely protected it from the recent visits downturn. But within that mix, differentiation has played an important role at its three largest brands. Each competes on value, but each has defined it differently – against the portion, the meat counter, and the check. Can all three keep working at once?
Check back with Placer.ai/anchor for the latest dining insights.
A Regional Gap Beneath a Steady Quarter
Foot traffic to home improvement rose slightly year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2026 (+0.9%) while staying near-flat at the category’s two largest players. But the regional data tells a more complicated story, with the gains in overall visits clustered in the Northeast and Midwest, while many Southwestern states saw declines.
What is behind the divide?
Movers and Buyers Don’t Explain the Gap
Population movement is an obvious suspect: An influx of new residents settling into their homes could lift demand for home improvement. But the pandemic-era domestic migration wave has ebbed – and the geography doesn’t line up. The Northeast, for example, has continued losing residents to domestic migration even as home improvement traffic has strengthened.
Renovations after a home purchase are another candidate. The first post-sale year brings roughly double the spending on alterations and repairs of owners who stay put. But sales trends do not map cleanly onto home improvement traffic. As reported by the NAR, home sales in the South, West, and Midwest climbed YoY in Q2 2026 while Northeast sales dropped.
Trips Come Before the Sale
What appears to track more closely with home improvement traffic is listing activity. The standard advice to sellers is to skip the kitchen and focus on affordable cosmetic upgrades like paint, patched drywall, and curb appeal, since major remodeling projects rarely earn back their cost at sale. And homeowners tackling these smaller projects may generate multiple trips to home improvement stores – whether or not the home ultimately sells.
State-level data lends some support to this connection. According to Realtor.com, all nine Northeastern states – each of which saw home improvement traffic rise YoY in Q2 2026 – also registered an increase in new listings over the same period. In the Southwest, meanwhile, nearly every state that lost visits also lost listings.
And the pattern becomes even clearer at the metro level. Across the nation’s 30 most populous metro areas, changes in new listings in Q2 2026 generally tracked changes in home improvement traffic: Northeastern metros like New York, Boston, and Philadelphia grew on new listings and visits while cities in the South and West like Los Angeles, Houston, and Austin declined on both measures.
Listings on Watch
Listings are only one input among many, and the fit is not uniform across states and cities. But as the home improvement sector continues to navigate choppy waters, one key signal to watch may be how many homes go up for sale.
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The Store, Reconsidered
The last few years have seen Best Buy extract more value from a shrinking store base – increasing ad revenue, launching an online third-party marketplace, and improving profit margins. Now the company is making its stores a pillar of its next phase of growth, adding locations for the first time in more than a decade while reimagining the space inside existing ones.
All of this comes as competition from online retailers intensifies and a memory-chip price surge pushes up the cost of the chain’s best-selling categories. We dove into the traffic data, and it suggests the renewed focus on stores is beginning to translate into visits.
Best Buy's First Positive Visit Quarter in at Least Four Years
Visits to Best Buy rose 2.2% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2026, representing a notable change in direction. While visits have regularly improved since the start of 2024, this quarter is the first time overall traffic growth has been positive since at least 2022.
The shift comes as Best Buy invests in elevating the brick-and-mortar experience, from IKEA shop-in-shops and in-store Meta Labs, to exclusive national distribution of the next generation RGB LED TVs.
Nationwide Growth, with Few Exceptions
Regional data indicates that Best Buy’s Q2 gains were broad-based: 43 states saw visit growth, including every state with 20 or more locations.
Visits fell in just a handful of states, and the only states with more than a 1.2% drop – Wyoming (-12.9%), Vermont (-4.9%), and Montana (-3.2%) – have just six locations between them. By contrast, California, Texas, and Florida – Best Buy’s three largest state markets – all grew within a point of the national figure. Growth spread this evenly is evidence that Best Buy’s efforts have found widespread traction rather than reflecting the local conditions in a handful of states or a specific region.
Three Months Up, One Explainable Down
Monthly growth was also largely consistent during the analyzed period, holding positive through most of the quarter and into the summer. Only June saw a slight YoY visit dip, due at least in part to a difficult YoY comparison with last year’s June release of the popular Nintendo Switch 2. Though Best Buy’s late-June 2026 “Tech-Fest” sales boosted visits in the back half of the month, it couldn’t entirely match the power of last year’s “Switch Effect.”
Sixty Years In and Climbing Again?
Best Buy enters the second half of its 60th year with visits growing and the high-volume holiday season on the horizon. One swallow does not make a spring – and time will tell if the turnaround can sustain its momentum. But for now at least, the chain is reaching more shoppers and giving them more reasons to stop by.
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The headwinds facing the department store industry have weighed on Kohl’s and Macy’s, pushing two of the category’s biggest players to sharpen their positioning in a retail environment that increasingly rewards differentiation. In Q2 2026, both retailers saw traffic improve as they leaned into their distinct positionings – Kohl’s as a local, value-focused stop for everyday errands, and Macy’s as a destination retailer.
Kohl's Turns the Corner on Traffic
Quarterly visits to Kohl’s dipped just 1.4% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2026, a significant improvement from Q1, when visits declined 7.7% YoY.
And traffic continued to improve into the summer. Kohl’s posted back-to-back same-store visit growth in June and July – its first streak of monthly gains in roughly two years. And with first-quarter comparable sales reaching their strongest level since 2022, even while remaining slightly negative, the chain could be poised for sunnier days if visits maintain their early-summer trajectory.
Macy's Traffic Shows Signs of Stabilizing
Macy's is also seeing encouraging signs of traffic stabilization. In Q2 2026, the chain's YoY overall visit gap narrowed to just 3.6%, improving meaningfully from Q1 – a significant achievement for a chain that has been steadily closing stores.
On a monthly basis, same-store visits slightly outpaced overall visits, suggesting that traffic declines are easing at established locations as Macy's continues to streamline and upgrade its fleet – closing underperforming stores while expanding its Reimagine program. And by July, same-store visits were just 0.4% below year-ago levels.
For a chain that has already shown it can grow sales per visit, stabilizing traffic represents an important foundation upon which to build further.
Different Shopping Missions, Different Strategies
Each chain is recovering by leaning into a different shopping mission. Kohl’s is reinforcing its role as a value-oriented spot for routine shopping, while Macy’s is concentrating investment around a smaller fleet of destination stores. And the behavioral data suggests those strategies are well matched to each brand’s distinct positioning.
As part of its turnaround strategy, Kohl’s has shifted decisively into the value lane, expanding the brand eligibility of coupons, rolling out a $10 or less ‘Deal Bar’, and spotlighting ‘By Kohl’s,’ its family of proprietary labels. The strategy appears well suited for its existing audience: More than three-quarters of Kohl’s stores sit in strip centers, and in Q2 2026, 56.3% of visits came from within five miles, versus 35.9% for Macy's and 42.3% for the category. Kohl's also led on repeat and weekday visits, reinforcing its errand-style role.
Macy's chosen path toward rehabilitation, meanwhile, reflects its positioning as a destination retailer. In Q2 2026, 64.1% of visits to Macy’s came from more than five miles away, with a higher share of weekend shoppers than the category average and lower visit frequency. That makes consolidation less disruptive for customers already traveling farther. Macy's is instead focused on making each trip count – reimagining its stores, refreshing its assortment with more fashion-forward private brands, and leaning into occasion-driven experiences like its year-long "Celebrations Start at Macy's" platform.
Holidays on the Horizon
Kohl’s and Macy’s both exited Q2 with improving visit momentum. And with back-to-school season underway and the holidays on the horizon, the second half of 2026 will test whether these gains can hold as each leans into its unique strengths.
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