Ephraim Fruchter

Getting People Through the Door

Planet Fitness is heading into its most important season with visits on the rise, gaining speed through a summer of promotions. And location analytics show that the growth has been broad, with same-store visits rising in most states – and the most significant lags concentrated in the South Central region.

A Strong Year Inside the Clubs

Planet Fitness’s growth in 2026 has been driven by both new and established clubs.

Overall visits increased year over year (YoY) throughout 2026, with Q3 seeing a 6.7% increase and growth reaching the high single digits by late summer. New clubs have contributed to that momentum, with 180–190 openings planned for the year. But existing locations are also drawing more visitors. Though same-store foot traffic growth softened slightly in the spring, it picked up again in the summer, finishing Q3 at 2.1% YoY.

Competition Leaves a Regional Mark

A regional breakdown shows that Planet Fitness’s momentum extended across much of the country. Same-store visits grew in the majority of states in Q3, including major markets such as California (1.6%), Pennsylvania (5.1%), and Ohio (3.5%). Among states with at least 10 locations, Oregon led the way with a 10.1% increase, followed by Kansas at 8.9%.

Declines, meanwhile, were concentrated largely in the South Central region, particularly Louisiana (-6.4%) and Texas (-5.7%) – though softness also extended to a few other states, including Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Growing competitive pressure in the South Central and Southeast regions – a challenge Planet Fitness management has highlighted in recent earnings calls – may help explain some of this regional weakness. Still, southeastern states such as Florida (1.6%) continued to post visit growth, suggesting that the impact of competition has been more pronounced in certain markets than others.

Resolution Season Awaits

Planet Fitness enters Q4 with growth intact across most of its footprint and a regional challenge in the South Central. A campaign launching in December, aimed at first-time gym-goers, will test whether the chain can build on that momentum nationwide while turning things around in Texas. And with New Year’s resolution season just around the corner, the coming months will offer an important test of its ability to attract new members and sustain growth across its existing clubs.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.

Timing Tells the Story

What do a restaurant’s busiest hours say about how it grows? For two of fast casual’s standout chains, quite a lot. CAVA and Portillo’s both posted visit growth in Q3 2026, yet their diners concentrate in different parts of the day and week, offering clues into why each brand is growing the way it is.

CAVA: Expansion Meets the Lunch Rush

CAVA built its name on Mediterranean mezze (small plates), but its visit growth keeps coming in large portions. Overall visits climbed 16.3% year over year (YoY) in Q3 2026, the latest in at least 15 straight quarters of double-digit growth. These gains come alongside a rapid expansion – at a pace now topping 70 stores a year – that has nearly doubled CAVA’s footprint to 500 stores since 2023. The moderation in visit growth since last quarter likely reflects its larger store base as well as the Cyclospora outbreak, which the company said weighed on July sales.

But it isn’t just openings driving growth. In the most recent quarter, same-store visits grew 1.7% YoY, extending a a sustained streak of gains. This consistency across its core locations points to staying power, as its protein-rich menu fits a  health-conscious eating shift that likely helped carry the brand into the mainstream. 

And that mainstream appeal shows up most clearly at midday. Between April and September 2026, nearly a third of CAVA visits (30.8%) came between 11 AM and 2 PM, above the fast-casual benchmark of 29.1%. And its visits keep to the same weekday rhythm as the segment, pointing to CAVA as an everyday rather than occasion-driven stop. Routine visits like these may be easier to build in new markets than special-purpose trips, perhaps explaining why CAVA’s new restaurants have consistently opened above the company’s expectations.

Portillo’s: Returning to Growth at the Other End of the Day

Portillo’s is growing too, though its appeal peaks later in the day and week. While new locations concentrated in Texas likely contributed to the chain’s 4.5% YoY visit growth in Q3, the bigger story is at existing stores, where same-store visits turned positive after declining 3.5% YoY in Q2. 

That rebound coincides with ongoing efforts to bring more diners through the door. Portillo’s increasingly popular Perks program, which reached a record 15.1% of sales in Q2, offers badges for frequent visits and free cake on members’ birthdays and half-birthdays. Summer promotions like its first Hot Dog Season added fresh reasons to visit.

And those visits run on a different schedule than CAVA’s, reflecting its role as a dinnertime destination and weekend draw. Over the past six months, visits between 5 PM and 8 PM made up 29.2% of total visits, above the fast-casual benchmark (27.6%), while lunch lagged well behind the benchmark. Weekends stood out even more: Just over half of visits came Friday through Sunday, well above the rest of fast casual, perhaps reflecting weekend schedules more suited to what the company calls a “naturally experiential brand.” Destination visits like these depend on a reason to make the trip, which helps explain why Portillo’s keeps creating new ones, from free birthday cake to Hot Dog Season.

When Diners Show Up Matters

The clock turns out to be a useful lens. CAVA’s lunch and weekday traffic gives it a pattern it can carry into new markets, while Portillo’s dinner and weekend draw makes each visit more of an event.  Two chains, two schedules – and two distinct routes to growth in fast casual.

For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.

Legacy Breakfast Under Pressure

Legacy breakfast chains have faced pressure from two directions in 2026. Record gas prices have squeezed value-focused guests, while premium daytime concepts continue to reinvent the category. 

Denny’s, IHOP and Waffle House are navigating those pressures from very different positions. Denny’s is shrinking its visit deficit, IHOP has steadied after a softer start to the year, and Waffle House is extending a growth streak. But beyond the headline numbers, each chain has a distinct strength to build on – from Denny’s appeal to families to IHOP’s neighborhood customer base and Waffle House’s around-the-clock draw. How are these advantages helping the chains navigate a challenging market?

Denny’s: A Family-Sized Foundation

Denny’s visit declines narrowed in Q3, as Project Grand Slam, its two-year turnaround strategy, moved into its first full quarter. Overall visits fell 4.4% year over year (YoY), compared with a 7.1% drop in Q2, while same-store visits slipped just 1.8%. That gap suggests that much of the remaining decline comes from the chain’s ongoing rightsizing, while a leaner fleet holds onto more of its traffic. 

The next phase of Grand Slam, a newly focused menu, reaches its first restaurants in the coming weeks with a full rollout targeted for next April. And as Denny’s works to get traffic back on track, it has a natural strength to build on: its appeal to families.

Households with four or more people account for 28.1% of Denny’s captured market, compared with just 22.6% of its potential market – a significantly larger gap than at IHOP or Waffle House. Denny’s already caters to this audience with Family Packs that can feed four to five and the “Kids Eat Free” deal. And its turnaround plan extends that group focus through catering, which expanded nationally in mid-August. While catering is aimed mainly at offices and workplace events (fitting, perhaps, for the diner where Nvidia was founded), this additional push into group meals plays to Denny’s identity as a family dining brand.

IHOP: A Neighborhood Stack

After a softer start to the year, IHOP’s visit declines narrowed for a second straight quarter, with overall visits dipping 1.0% and same-store visits stabilizing at -0.2% YoY. The chain is pairing its expanded value platform with buzzy limited-time items, including the nationwide debut of its viral Dubai Chocolate Pancakes in late June and the September return of Stuffed French Toast. That balance may be helping IHOP hold same-store traffic steady, even as budgets stay tight. 

But IHOP has another advantage in a challenging consumer environment: resilient visitation among nearby customers. About a third of IHOP’s Q3 visits came from within 3 miles, and those visits edged up 0.3% YoY. Visits from farther away, meanwhile, proved more vulnerable. Trips from 3-10 miles dipped 0.5%, while long trips of 10+ miles fell 2.9%.

Dine Brands’ CEO has noted that its value-focused guests are highly sensitive to gas prices, which may help explain why longer trips softened while nearby guests kept coming. And with local visits holding steady, IHOP’s neighborhood appeal appears to be providing a measure of stability as the chain works to return to growth.

Waffle House: Growing Around the Clock

While Denny’s and IHOP are working to rebuild and stabilize traffic, Waffle House is already delivering sustained growth. Q3 marked the chain’s third straight quarter of same-store gains near 5%, with same-store visits rising 5.1% YoY and overall visits up 6.6%. The chain has kept expanding, with new restaurants planned in fast-growing markets like suburban Houston, but its same-store gains show that existing restaurants are driving much of that growth too. 

Waffle House’s anchor is its 24/7 appeal – and Q3 data shows that overnight visits to the chain are growing faster than any other daypart. The always-lit yellow sign has long been a symbol of its late-night draw, even inspiring a pop single by a major band about its post-show visits. But the Q3 data also suggests Waffle House’s growth isn’t confined to any one hour, with every part of the day contributing.

Anchored for Growth

Each chain heads into the final stretch of 2026 with an anchor in place, and Waffle House shows what that looks like alongside steady growth. Can Denny’s Project Grand Slam and IHOP’s value-and-indulgence mix turn families and neighbors into the next leg of growth?

For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.

Sprouts Takes Stock

Sprouts Farmers Market has spent much of 2026 recalibrating. After two years of “significant growth,” the specialty grocer has faced a more cautious shopper and responded with targeted price cuts and value-focused meals, all while using loyalty data to refine its approach. It has also kept opening stores at a rapid clip. Q3 2026 visits point to a business that is steadying, and where it’s holding up best may depend less on how affluent its shoppers are than on where they sit relative to their state.

Same-Store Visits Steady in Q3

Sprouts entered Q3 2026 after a stretch of headwinds: a particularly tough June 2025 to lap, ongoing Cyclospora concerns, and continued economic uncertainty that led shoppers to limit their purchases. Its same-store visits declined over the same period, though new store openings kept overall visits growing throughout, and that growth rose sharply in July, peaking at 6.2% year over year (YoY). 

However, in Q3, same-store visits stabilized, rebounding from a 4.1% decline in Q2 to roughly flat (-0.1%). Expansion still drove overall growth (punctuated by the opening of Sprouts’ 500th location), but both July and August posted same-store gains. And though same-store visits dipped in September, the quarter may yet mark the start of calmer waters. 

The Median is the Message

Digging into the data for Sprouts’ four largest markets – California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona – shows that the stabilization was far from uniform. 

Same-store visits grew 1.1% YoY in California – Sprouts’ largest market by far – and 2.2% in Florida. In Arizona and Texas, by contrast, visits slipped 0.6% and 3.2%, respectively.

Sprouts’ relatively affluent customer base should, in theory, cushion it from economic uncertainty, even as higher-income consumers grow more cost-conscious. But in California and Florida, where same-store visits grew, the median household income (HHI) of Sprouts’ captured markets is only about 8% above the statewide median, compared with 12.8% in Arizona and 20.1% in Texas. So why would Sprouts hold up better where its shoppers sit closer to the local norm?

The answer may lie in what a Sprouts trip means locally. In California and Florida, where its shoppers lie closer to their state’s median income, a natural and organic grocer may read less as an indulgence and more as a regular part of the grocery mix, and regular purchases tend to be hard to cut. Sprouts’ efforts to strengthen local sourcing may reinforce that fit, closely tailoring the store to the community around it. When budgets tighten, those shoppers may stay put, and some may even migrate to Sprouts from pricier specialty stores. In Texas, on the other hand, where Sprouts’ shoppers sit further upmarket, the same trip may look more like a splurge.

Meeting the Median in New Markets

Among Sprouts’ four largest markets, Q3 visits held up best where its shoppers most closely tracked their state’s income. That fit may matter even more as Sprouts continues its push into the Northeast and lays the groundwork for its first Midwest stores. Can Sprouts reach the local mainstream in markets where it’s still new?

For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.

Shake Shack Breaks New Ground

Shake Shack began as a hot dog cart in Manhattan’s Madison Square Park, and for most of its history its growth followed dense, affluent city neighborhoods. That is changing. The company has set a long-term target of 1,500 company-operated stores – several times its current size – and leadership has said that much of its future growth will come from the suburbs. 

As Shake Shack heads out into those markets, Q3 traffic data suggests the brand’s strategy is beginning to put meat on the bones: same-store visits are growing and its audience is expanding beyond the urban, high-earning base that the brand was built on.

Visits Grow Beyond New Openings

Coming off its strongest second quarter of openings on record, overall visits to Shake Shack rose 18.7% year-over-year (YoY) in Q3 2026. 

But new openings aren’t the whole story. Same-store visits also grew 2.8%, extending the gains seen in Q1 and Q2. The quarter’s promotions may have helped draw guests to existing Shacks: A West Coast–inspired limited-time menu arrived in July, and the chain’s $2, $4, and $6 app offers supplied guests with a steady value option. And audience segmentation data suggests that a broadening customer base may also be helping to fuel that growth. 

An Audience Beyond the Urban Core

As Shake Shack expands, it is  drawing a broader range of income groups than it used to. Though the chain still overindexes among affluent crowds, the median household income of its captured market has dropped steadily over the past two years, edging closer to the national figure. 

Its audience is also tilting toward families. Though Shake Shack still draws plenty of high-earning city professionals, its reach has grown among affluent and working-class suburban families alike. Both suburban groups gained share of the chain’s captured market over the past two years as the urban group’s share declined. New Shacks in the suburbs put the brand closer to families, and the convenience of a drive-thru may make it an attractive stop for households with kids. 

For a brand built on city professionals, this broadening suggests its appeal can travel well beyond its original turf, even as its audience remains relatively affluent. 

How Far From the Park?

Each new suburban Shack takes the brand a little further from the park where it started. So far, it is finding a growing following in the suburbs while its established stores keep gaining visits. Can Shake Shack turn that increased reach into lasting demand?

For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor. 

Picking Up Where Q2 Left Off

In our Q2 coverage, we asked whether Burger King could keep up its momentum, whether Popeyes’ early turnaround would hold, and whether Firehouse Subs could sustain its traffic while expanding. Q3 visit data offers some answers: Every RBI brand ended the quarter stronger than it began, each through its own mix of short-term promotions and long-term strategy.   

Four Brands, One Portfolio Gain

RBI’s four brands are each moving forward in their own way, and in Q3, their gains added up. The company’s overall visits grew 2.0% YoY, widening its lead over the QSR benchmark, which declined further, while keeping pace with the fast casual benchmark. That’s a notable shift for a portfolio that trailed both benchmarks through Q1 2026, and it aligns with management’s case that “investing behind” each of its brands is paying off. 

On a per-location basis, RBI outperformed both benchmarks. Average visits per location grew 3.3% YoY in Q3, extending a three-quarter streak and outpacing overall visits. The gap reflects a smaller fleet, as Burger King continued shuttering underperforming stores and dozens of Popeyes locations closed following a franchisee bankruptcy in late June. But with overall visits still rising, RBI appears to be holding onto its traffic despite a smaller footprint. 

Burger King and Popeyes: Turnarounds Gain Traction

Burger King really earned its royal moniker in Q3, leading RBI’s brands in both overall and same-store visit growth. Overall visits rose 3.4% YoY and same-store visits 4.4%, each one bettering Q2. Same-store visits also accelerated each month, from 0.3% in June to 8.7% in September, a month that included Burger King’s popular Dragon Ball Super Menu promotion and the full Labor Day weekend, which began in August last year. These short-term wins reinforce the chain’s long-term “Reclaim the Flame” framework, which has already helped Burger King reclaim its long-sought No. 2 spot among U.S. burger chains.  

Popeyes hasn’t had as smooth a ride, but it too ended the quarter stronger than it began. While the aforementioned store closures kept overall Q3 visits slightly negative, same-store visits turned positive for the quarter, a marked improvement from Q2. Same-store visits rose from 1.3% in June to 4.3% in September, dipping in August before rebounding soon after Popeyes brought back its $6 Big Box as part of its new “THAT Chicken” brand campaign. Both moves align with RBI’s turnaround plan for Popeyes: consistent value through the Big Box and a campaign spotlighting its signature chicken rather than another limited-time offer. Management expects this renewed focus to drive positive second-half comps.

Firehouse Subs and Tim Hortons: Steady Monthly Progress

Firehouse Subs also ended the quarter on an upswing. While its Q3 same-store performance was slightly negative and softer than Q2, visits gradually improved each month from June to September, ending on 0.4% growth. The climb coincided with the Smokin’ Honey Melts special and the beginning of the chain’s multi-year partnership with the MLB. Longer term, these results are a promising sign as Firehouse leans into development incentives to encourage new franchisees, building on the chain’s recently opened 1,500th restaurant. 

Tim Hortons, for its part, improved substantially from Q2 and narrowed its visit gap each month from a 5.3% YoY decline in June to just 1.1% in September. The limited-time Harry Potter menu launched in mid-August, which featured drinks, donuts, and packaging inspired by the series, added a timely bit of magic to the chain’s late-summer lineup. With the chain planning further expansion outside its Great Lakes and Northern strongholds into Southern markets, it might only be a matter of time before visits tip into positive territory. 

Customers at the Center

Across RBI's portfolio, its brands have framed their efforts around guest feedback, from Burger King’s revamped Whopper to Firehouse Subs’ expanded Melt lineup and Popeyes’ new Honey Chicken Biscuit, inspired by fans’ own menu hacks. If Q3 is any indication, diners are noticing. 

For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.