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Off-Price Still on a Roll
Off-price apparel has spent the past four years gaining traffic share from department stores as shoppers have cut back on discretionary spending and looked for more ways to stretch their dollars.
In the first half of 2026, that growth became increasingly concentrated at the value end of the segment, with Ross leading the way.
Ross Leads the Pack
Off-price apparel remained on solid footing in Q2 2026, with Ross leading the segment. Visits to Ross Dress for Less rose 16.4% year over year (YoY), while dd’s DISCOUNTS grew 8.4%. TJX’s T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, meanwhile, saw visits hover around last year’s levels – significantly outperforming traditional apparel, which declined 3.5% YoY.
Ross’s Deep Value Model Drives Double Digit Growth
Ross’s position at the deepest-discount end of the off-price segment has served it well as inflation and trade uncertainty have kept pressure on household budgets. And because neither Ross Dress for Less nor dd’s DISCOUNTS operates a digital storefront, all shopping activity at the two chains takes place offline.
Comparable-store sales at Ross climbed 17% in the company’s most recent quarter, significantly exceeding guidance. And that momentum has not only held into the summer, but strengthened, with YoY visits accelerating at both Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS in June and July.
TJX Outperforms Traditional Apparel
Meanwhile, visits to TJX brands T.J. Maxx and Marshalls generally hovered near last year’s levels, comfortably outperforming traditional apparel’s 3.5% YoY decline. Still, their softer momentum relative to Ross may point to some pullback in the more discretionary, treasure-hunt side of the off-price experience.
While both companies sell branded merchandise, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls skew toward higher-income shoppers and somewhat higher price points. That greater emphasis on nice-to-have purchases may leave them somewhat more exposed when consumers rein in discretionary spending.
Higher gas prices may also have weighed on store visits. With the national average for a gallon of regular gas reaching $4.09 in late July, up from $3.16 a year earlier, some T.J. Maxx and Marshalls shoppers may have been more inclined to skip the drive and shop online instead – an option available at TJX.
Even so, both chains showed resilience heading into back-to-school season. Marshalls posted a modest YoY visit increase in July, while same-store visits at T.J. Maxx were just 0.6% below 2025 levels. That relative strength suggests back-to-school shopping helped support traffic, particularly at family-oriented Marshalls, where the category is a natural fit.
Value Still in the Driver’s Seat
Off-price continues to thrive, with Ross leading the way in the first half of 2026. And with household budgets still under pressure, consumers appear to be rewarding retailers that stretch their dollars furthest.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
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A Quarter of Small Margins
Visits to The Home Depot and Lowe's remained close to last year's level in Q2 2026, with overall and same-store visits diverging less than one percentage point from Q2 2025 numbers. While these trends represent a moderation from the stronger performance in Q1 2026, they continue to reflect the longer-term improvement and stabilization of visitation trends observed since Q3 2025.
A Cooler Spring
Inspecting monthly visits data suggests that the ongoing consumer headwinds may be stalling the recovery – though the relatively muted declines suggest that the category's recovery is likely paused rather than reversed.
Following a solid start to the year, The Home Depot's year-over-year (YoY) visit growth slowed sharply in March 2026, likely reflecting the impact of rising gas prices, which squeezed household budgets and prompted some shoppers to delay larger home improvement purchases. But despite the increased pressure on consumers, traffic still remained relatively close to 2025 levels throughout the analyzed period.
Lowe's followed a similar arc, opening the year with positive YoY traffic growth that moderated in March. And following an April traffic spike – driven in part by strong traffic during its spring sale and easier comparisons to a softer April 2025 for Lowe's – traffic remained within two percentage points of last year's levels.
The Projects Still Waiting
This relative YoY stability of Q2 2026 traffic for both The Home Depot and Lowe's may indicate that underlying demand for home improvement projects has proven resilient despite the macroeconomic backdrop. Growth in the second half of 2026 may come from the accumulation of deferred maintenance, or from an easing in prices and rates that finally makes bigger projects feel affordable again. Either could turn this plateau into a climb.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
