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With sales of mountain passes up and eager skiers and snowboarders ready to hit the slopes, let’s take a look at how Backcountry has been performing of late. This brand may be familiar to many, as it has been an online retailer for the past 27 years. Lately, though, the retailer has made a foray into brick-and-mortar stores in areas where they have a strong concentration of online customers, with the store count currently up to 9 nationwide.
The Palo Alto store opened in Spring 2023. Visitation trendlines show that this store at the Stanford Shopping Center has jumped to be neck-and-neck with the Seattle store in Dec 2023.
The majority of Backcountry shoppers come from very high-income households, such as Ultra Wealthy Families, Educated Urbanites, and Sunset Boomers (using PersonaLive data for select store trade areas).
Backcountry opened its first physical store downstairs from its corporate headquarters in Park City, UT in 2021. The impetus for opening a brick-and-mortar store was to “deepen connections with its customers.” In addition to the Palo Alto store, Backcountry also opened its first east coast outpost on 14th St in Washington DC during spring 2023, one of the hot retail corridors we wrote about. The newest entrant is a 23,000 square-foot flagship location open at the Grove in Los Angeles in July, which will provide gear for all sorts of popular outdoor activities, such as hiking, camping, water sports, running and climbing.
The holidays conjure up warm, cozy images of families sitting around artfully-set tables and enjoying delicious home-cooked meals. But for many people, Christmas Day is also a time to eat out. And while many restaurants are closed on December 25th, several national and regional chains keep their doors open for patrons eager to enjoy a nice, stress-free meal with loved ones – without the clean-up.
So with the holiday season in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to explore nationwide December 25th dining trends – focusing our analysis on more than 100 chains, mostly full-service, with significant national or regional presence. Which brands are most popular on Christmas Day? And what differences can be observed in different regions of the country?
Nationwide, visits to dining chains nationwide were down 59.7% on December 25th, 2023, compared to a Q4 2023 daily average. But digging down deeper into the different areas of the country reveals significant regional differences.
The Pacific states – including California, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, and Hawaii – saw a drop of just 33.8% in dining visits on Christmas Day compared to the region’s Q4 2023 daily average. Next in line were the various regions of the South, where December 25th foot traffic dropped between 51.2% and 56.9%, followed by the Mountain states. And on the other end of the spectrum lay New England, where visits were down 83.3% compared to a Q4 baseline. Other areas of the Northeast and Midwest also experienced foot traffic dips in excess of 70.0% – indicating that residents of these areas are less likely to dine out on the holiday.
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But which chains are most popular on December 25th? Analyzing the distribution of holiday visits among 25 leading Christmas Day restaurant destinations shows that three all-day breakfast chains – Waffle House, IHOP, and Denny’s – dominated the Christmas Day dining market this year.
Together, these 24/7 eateries, which tend to experience significant holiday visit bumps, accounted for an impressive 70.4% of holiday dining foot traffic. After a leisurely morning of presents and hot cocoa, it seems, nothing quite hits the spot like waffles, pancakes, and other breakfast favorites. And with affordable prices, seasonal menus, and special holiday vibes (complete with pajama-clad customers), these restaurants offer plenty of holiday cheer.
But breakfast chains aren’t the only dining venues that draw Christmas Day crowds. Red Lobster, the popular seafood chain, cornered 4.9% of this year’s December 25th dining foot traffic. And Applebee’s, Black Bear Diner, Golden Corral, and TGI Fridays each received between 2.0% and 3.0% of Christmas Day visits.
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Drilling down deeper into the data for holiday visit trends shows that each state has its own favorite Christmas Day destination. In no fewer than 21 states nationwide – including New York, Texas, Michigan, and Florida – IHOP topped the chart. Denny’s and Waffle House, for their parts, each led the charge in 11 states, with Waffle House dominating the Christmas Day scene in much of the South.
But in some places, other chains topped the Christmas Day rankings. In Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota, people flocked to Perkins Restaurant & Bakery – the casual-dining chain known for its iconic pies and pancakes. In Wyoming and South Dakota, Red Lobster drew the biggest crowds. And in Oregon, Shari’s – a chain with some 80 locations in the western region of the country – attracted the most holiday visits.
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Foot traffic data also reveals, unsurprisingly, that visitors to the three Christmas Day leaders – Waffle House, IHOP, and Denny’s – spent more time in the restaurants on Christmas Day than they usually do. Some 17.3% of Christmas Day Waffle House visits lasted more than one hour – compared to 14.7% on an average day in 2023. IHOP and Denny’s also saw significant holiday increases in dwell time.
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Though many restaurants are closed on December 25th, chains that do stay open – especially all-day breakfast eateries – draw significant crowds. How will holiday winners like Waffle House, IHOP, and Denny’s continue to fare as people settle back into their post-holiday routines? And how will Christmas Day dining trends evolve nationwide in the years to come?
Follow placer.ai/blog to find out.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Has the remote work war run its course? For a while last year, it seemed like not a day went by without another headline proclaiming the demise of WFH. And as return-to-office mandates continued to pile up (et tu, Zoom?), the debate over offsite work productivity grew ever more rancorous.
But amidst all the noise, a new hybrid reality appears to have taken hold, offering both companies and employees the benefits of a mixed model. Yes, productivity can thrive outside the office – but there is something about the intangible spark that ignites when people interact with one another in person that has proven crucial to business success. So while recent survey data shows a precipitous drop in fully remote work over the past three years, most companies aren’t requiring people to go back to the office full time.
With these trends in mind, we dove into the data to explore the state of office foot traffic as the year drew to a close. How did December 2023 office visits compare to pre-COVID? And what impact did the holiday season have on the demographic profile of the typical office-goer?
Last month, buildings in our Nationwide Office Index received 36.5% fewer visits than they did in December 2019 – reflecting a continuation of the same general holding pattern that has seen foot traffic hovering around 40.0% of pre-COVID levels, with some minor fluctuations.
But delving further into the data for key commercial hubs nationwide highlights the persistence of important regional differences – with New York City emerging as last month’s clear office recovery winner. In December 2023, the Big Apple experienced a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visit gap of just 19.2% – the smallest seen by the city in some time. At the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, with a Yo4Y visit gap of 53.1%.
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But December is a bit of an outlier, work-wise. It’s the heart of the holiday season – kicked off by Thanksgiving at the end of November, and bookended by New Year’s Eve on the other side. And foot traffic data shows a small but distinct shift in the demographic profiles of office buildings’ captured markets – i.e. the areas their visitors come from – during the last month of the year.
Nationwide, and in major cities like New York and San Francisco, office-goers tend to come from relatively affluent areas with greater-than-average shares of one-person households. But over the final three months of 2023, both of these metrics in office buildings’ captured markets gradually declined. November office visitors were more likely to come from larger and lower-HHI households than October visitors – and December visitors were more likely to come from such households than November ones. This may reflect the greater flexibility of higher-HHI employees to work from home more often during the holiday season. It may also reflect a greater tendency on the part of singles to take extended trips to visit family during the holidays, and plug in from afar.
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Hybrid work may be here to stay, but employees and companies will likely continue to negotiate the exact terms of the new model in the months and years ahead. Are the remote work wars really over? And what will office recovery look like in the new year?
Follow placer.ai/blog to find out.
With their experiential vibes and treasured blends of well-known brands and local gems, high-street retail corridors are experiencing something of a renaissance. Iconic shopping districts like Fifth Avenue and SoHo in New York City, Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, and Newbury Street in Boston are seeing steady influxes of luxury and high-end apparel brands. And economic headwinds notwithstanding, consumers continue to flock to these important retail destinations to shop, grab a bite to eat, and take in all the sights and sounds they have to offer.
So with the new year upon us, we dove into the data to see how major urban shopping districts nationwide fared this holiday season. How did visits to these corridors in the final months of 2023 compare to last year? And who are the consumers driving the high-street revival?
Over the past six months, visits to major urban shopping districts have been consistently higher than they were last year. And as the holiday season kicked into gear, the year-over-year (YoY) growth trajectory trended upwards – indicating a robust turnout during this holiday period.
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To examine some of the factors behind this growth, we analyzed the demographic profiles of the captured markets of POIs (points of interest) corresponding to major high-street corridors throughout the country.
The analysis shows that throughout the U.S., high-street shopping districts hold special appeal for affluent audiences – and for consumers belonging to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive’s “Educated Urbanite” psychographic segment. This segment encompasses well-educated young singles that live in dense urban areas and make relatively high salaries. Given the demographic profile of their visitors, it’s no wonder that high-street corridors are finding success while expanding their luxury and high-end apparel portfolios.
In Q4 2023, the captured markets of Fifth Avenue, SoHo, and Times Square all featured higher median household incomes (HHIs), and greater shares of the “Educated Urbanite” segment than New York’s statewide baselines. Each of these quintessential New York City landmarks, however, drew a somewhat different visitor base.
Fifth Avenue, with its array of museums, luxury high-rises, and expensive department stores, drew the most affluent crowd, with a captured market median HHI of $105.6K – some 35.7% above the statewide median. SoHo, for its part, known for designer apparel stores, trendy cafes, and whimsical tourist attractions (Museum of Ice Cream, anyone?), attracted the largest share of “Educated Urbanites.” And Times Square, a top Big Apple attraction with broad popular appeal, boasted a visitor profile closest to statewide baselines.
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A look at the visitor profiles of major California shopping districts reveals a similar trend. The captured markets of Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive, Santa Monica’s 3rd Street Promenade, Hayes Valley in San Francisco, and Abbot Kinney in Los Angeles all had higher median HHIs in Q4 2023 than the statewide median of $85.7K. Of these, the captured market with the highest median HHI was that of Hayes Valley in San Francisco – an unsurprising finding given the relative affluence of the Bay Area. Not far behind was Rodeo Drive, with a median HHI of $113.9K.
Hayes Valley also led the charge for “Educated Urbanites,” with no less than 61.4% of the population of its captured market – nearly two-thirds – belonging to this segment. But all four of the analyzed high-street corridors were significantly over-indexed for this demographic compared to the California baseline of 13.1%.
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Looking at urban shopping districts in other major cities nationwide – including Newbury Street in Boston, Fulton Market in Chicago, and Walnut Street in Philadelphia – shows that the unique draw of these corridors for young, affluent singles isn’t confined to New York and Chicago. In all three corridors, the median HHIs and shares of “Educated Urbanites” in the captured markets
also exceeded statewide baselines – oftentimes by a wide margin.
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Evolving work routines and post-COVID population shifts continue to present municipalities and other civic stakeholders with significant challenges. But the revival of high-street retail corridors shows that cities are up to the task. How will major urban shopping districts fare in the new year? And how will their audiences continue to evolve?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail foot traffic analyses to find out.
How did the brick-and-mortar divisions of Walmart, Target, and other leading retailers perform this holiday season? Which days drove the most visits, and how did foot traffic performance this year compare to 2022? We dove into the data to find out.
Looking at daily visits to Target, Walmart, mid-tier department stores (including Macy’s, JCPenney, Kohl’s Belk, and Dillard’s), luxury department stores (including Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, Bloomingdale’s, and Nordstrom) and Best Buy reveals several common trends.
In all cases, retail visits began to creep up over the days leading up to Thanksgiving (Monday through Wednesday) as consumers took advantage of early Black Friday discounts. And the visit increase on Black Friday 2023 relative to the Q4 daily average was larger than in 2022 – perhaps thanks to budget-conscious consumers holding out for the steep discounts offered the day after Thanksgiving. The Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and Super Saturday spikes were also particularly pronounced in 2023, likely thanks to the combination of both retail events falling on the same day this year.
All retailers and retail segments analyzed also saw smaller surges on Boxing Day (December 26th) 2023 when compared to 2022, likely due to calendar differences. Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2022, so December 26th was declared a federal holiday in lieu of December 25th, and many private-sector employers likely gave time off as well – giving consumers the opportunity to hit the stores and enjoy after-Christmas sales. But Boxing Day still drove visit peaks across the board in 2023 (albeit not smaller peaks than in 2022) – indicating that Boxing Day is now a U.S. phenomenon as well.
December 27th, 28th, and 29th saw a greater increase relative to the daily Q4 average in 2023 compared to 2022, culminating in a larger New Years Eve Eve (December 30th) spike. The December 30th surge may be because this year’s December 30th fell on a Saturday, which is a major shopping day in its own right. But the increase in the days prior to New Years Eve Eve, when after-Christmas sales were in full force, could indicate that consumers are still particularly attune to sales events.
Still, despite the similarities across retail categories, foot traffic data also reveals some important differences between the segments.
Visits to Target began to increase in November 2023 relative to October as the retailer offered “Four Weeks of Early Black Friday Deals,” starting October 29th. And like the other categories analyzed, Target saw its first small visit peak of the season on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (also known as Turkey Wednesday thanks to the massive Grocery visit spikes on the day). Visits on the day before Thanksgiving were up by 21.5% and 22.1%, in 2022 and 2023, respectively, despite foot traffic on an average Wednesday tends to be lower than the Q4 daily average – indicating that “Turkey Wednesday” also holds retail significance for grocery-adjacent categories.
Visits then spiked on Black Friday and returned to seasonally normal levels on Saturday. Throughout December, foot traffic continued to swell, with every week exceeding the previous week’s visit performance. The intensity of the visit growth picked up the week before Christmas, with Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday seeing a significant jump. Finally, Target visits on Boxing Day and the week following Christmas also exceeded the Q4 daily average as consumers took advantage of end-of-season sales and looked for festive attire for their New Year’s Eve celebrations.
The holiday season visit pattern at Walmart differs from those at Target in several instances. The superstore’s Turkey Visit spike was significantly more pronounced than Target’s, likely thanks to Walmart’s more extensive grocery offerings. Walmart also saw smaller spikes on Black Friday – perhaps due to the retailer’s famous “everyday low prices,” which may reduce the appeal of specific sales events. The Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday surge were also lower than for Target, but the Super Saturday increase relative to Black Friday spike was more pronounced, with some consumers probably visiting Walmart for last-minute groceries ahead of their Christmas dinners.
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Visits to luxury department stores (Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, and Bloomingdale’s) followed the general retail foot traffic trends, with larger peaks on Black Friday and on Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday in 2023 compared to 2022. Boxing Day 2023 drove a smaller visit spike relative to last year, but foot traffic was still 98.2% higher than the Q4 2023 daily average – indicating that the day is still emerging as an important retail milestone, especially for pricier segments.
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Mid-tier department stores (Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Belk, and Dillard’s) saw more significant spikes on Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday, and smaller spikes on Boxing Day. Luxury’s department stores’ biggest post-Christmas visit peak was on Boxing Day, but mid-tier department stores experienced their largest end-of-year increase on New Year’s Eve Eve (December 30th).
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Best Buy saw the strongest Q4 visit spike on Black Friday out of all the retailers and retail segments analyzed, with foot traffic up a whopping 510.9% compared to its Q4 2023 daily average. The electronics leader also had the largest Christmas Eve Eve/Super Saturday bump – with visits up 188.1% – and Boxing Day boost, with traffic up 112.9% compared to the Q4 daily average. The visit surges over the holiday season’s retail milestones indicate that demand for electronics remains strong – even as some consumers may be putting off large purchases due to economic headwinds.
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The holiday season drove significant retail foot traffic across categories, with every segment displaying its own unique Q4 visitation pattern. How will these sectors perform in the year ahead?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
2023 was a year that forced restaurant operators to stay agile. Inflation was top-of-mind for most consumers throughout the year, resulting in a trade-down to value-oriented restaurants (or trading out to value grocery chains, dollar stores, and convenience stores). That said, value wasn’t the only factor driving visits, as new menu innovations (Taco Bell was a standout) or marketing partnerships (McDonald’s Famous Orders and “adult” happy meals helping the chain to outperform from a visitation perspective). While we’ve seen visitation trends for the morning daypart improve due to a steady recovery in return to office trends, we continue to see visits during late morning and early afternoon for coffee and QSR chains due to changes in consumer routines (not to mention a resurgence in late night dining). This has also prompted several chains to refine their approach to drive-thrus and pick-up windows (Shake Shack, Chipotle, Taco Bell, among several others). On top of these trends, we’ve seen massive changes in restaurant trade areas, driving many chains to rethink their expansion plans (including an emphasis on South and Southeast, which have seen population growth due to migration).
McDonald’s new exploratory restaurant concept CosMc’s sits at the intersection of several of these trends. The smaller-format (approximately 2,800 square feet, compared to 4,000-4,500 square feet for the average McDonald’s), drive-thru only concept opened its doors last month in Bolingbrook, IL, and is part of a “limited test run”. Its menu heavily focuses on beverages, including four “Signature Galactic Boosts” (featuring Sour Cherry Energy Boost and Island Pick-Me-Up Punch drinks), iced teas and lemonades (such as a Tropical Spiceade and Blackberry Mist Green Tea), slushes and frappes (including a Chai Frappe Burst and Popping Pear Slush), and coffee-based products (highlighted by the S’Mores Cold Brew and Turmeric Spiced Latte). While beverages are the focal point, there are also a variety of breakfast and snack food options, including a Spicy Queso and Creamy Avocado Tomatillo breakfast sandwiches, McPops (filled doughnuts), Savory Hash Brown Bites, and Pretzel Bites. In addition to the experimental fare, the menu also features a host of traditional breakfast sandwiches and beverage offerings.
Given the early buzz, we decided to check out the concept for ourselves this week. It was immediately apparent how much interest CosMc’s was drawing, as the drive-thru lane spanned roughly 80 vehicles upon arrival (which required use of a separate parking lot at the Maple Park Place shopping center, which also features Burlington, Ross Dress for Less, Dollar Tree, Aldi, and Best Buy stores).
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While its unique menu has rightfully generated a significant amount of attention, it’s also clear that McDonald’s is also using CosMc’s as a test for other potential drive-thru only locations in the future. Customers order from dynamic menu boards and cashless payment devices are used to expedite the payment process. Visitors wait at the menu board until their order is ready, and then pickup windows are assigned when the order is ready.
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Admittedly, it’s tough to make definitive conclusions about CosMc’s with the location being open for only a few weeks. Placer’s data suggests that CosMc’s saw more than double the number of visits that a typical McDonald’s saw chainwide during December 2023 (despite being open only since Dec. 7) and more than triple the number of visits per square foot (given CosMc’s smaller, roughly 2,500 square feet footprint). However, it’s also worth noting that CosMc’s visitation numbers would likely have been much higher if the location had additional capacity to satisfy the overwhelming demand.
Still, Placer offers some other ways to evaluate CosMc’s early trends. Based on 2019 Census Block Group data, CosMc’s trade area size (using a 70% of visit threshold) was just over 155 square miles during December 2023 (below). This is roughly 2.5 times the size of the trade area for the average McDonald’s location during December 2023 (62 miles) and significantly larger than the average trade area for most coffee brands (25-35 miles for more urban focused brands to 50-60 miles for more suburban/secondary market brands). In fact, the closest recent comparison we could find for CosMc’s was Raising Cane’s Post Malone and Dallas Cowboys restaurant collaboration, which had an impressive 264-mile trade area during its initial month of opening (though also helped by cross-traffic from Dallas Cowboys home game visitors from across the state of Texas). In some ways, there were also similarities between CosMc's and the Hello Kitty Cafe Trucks, which the Placer.ai Blog team wrote about last September.
Given that McDonald’s also appears to be targeting a younger demographic with CosMc’s, we thought we’d also look at the age breakdown for the potential market trade area (the population living within the trade area for the CosMc’s store). McDonald’s collective potential market trade area largely mirrors U.S. trends given its reach (the company has previously stated that 85% of the population in its top five markets–the U.S., France, the U.K., Germany and Canada–are within three miles of a McDonald’s location), it’s interesting that the potential market trade area for CosMc’s does skew to a younger audience, particularly the 22–29-year-old cohort.
By the end of 2024, McDonald’s plans to open an additional 10 CosMc’s test units, including locations in the Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio markets (notably some of the fastest growing markets in the U.S.). Does CosMc’s have the potential to be something more than a 10-unit test over a longer horizon? McDonald's has attempted to differentiate its coffee business in the past with its McCafe menu and standalone McCafe locations in international markets, but competition with Starbucks and others made it difficult for the company to distinguish McCafe as a standalone retail brand in the U.S. CosMc's is interesting from this perspective, as it may allow the company to build a brand more naturally and stand out with a younger audience (which appears to be working). It’s unlikely that future CosMc’s will look or operate like the pilot location in Bolingbrook. Nevertheless, the excitement around new products, an expansive trade area, and potential to connect with younger audience make it a worthwhile test (especially with 2024 shaping up to be a strong year for unit growth within the coffee category).
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
