Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Wholesale Club Breakdown

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
May 11, 2021
Wholesale Club Breakdown

The wholesale club sector experienced several fundamental disruptions during the pandemic that offered the potential to redefine the space. Brands like BJ’s Wholesale Club surged with 13.0% visit growth in 2020 compared to 2019, while Sam’s Club saw a 4.3% increase in visits year over year. And these jumps were given added weight as industry leader Costco, saw a near impossible to imagine 2.1% decline in visits in 2020.

But, customer behavior data offered the possibility that Costco’s declines were less a product of weakness than shifts in the ways shoppers were visiting. This makes the recovery all the more important from an analysis perspective in order to determine whether the changes in the last year indicate a shift in the wholesale club balance of power.

The Recovery Trend

Costco, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club all saw strength in Q1 of 2021. In March 2021, Costco saw visits up 1.0% when compared to 2019 and 4.1% when compared to March 2020. Sam’s Club and BJ’s both saw strength during this month as well with visits up 4.4% and 4.1% over 2019 respectively, and up 7.8% and 11.4% year over year. 

And the strength is seen even more when looking at weekly visits. Costco has seen visit growth when comparing to 2019 in all but two weeks since the start of March. Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale saw visit growth each week, yet the comparison was a bit easier considering the lesser strength these brands displayed during that period in 2019.

A Rising Tide

The question then becomes whether there was a shift in the balance of power, or if the pandemic created a tide that lifted all wholesale boats. And the answer appears to be the latter. Looking at the shift in visit share shows that while March 2020 showed a more marked change, by March 2021 the numbers were in line with ‘normal’ distributions. 

The resulting conclusion is that wholesale club leaders didn’t just see individual success, but a wider bump for the whole sector. The pre-pandemic popularity of these brands likely got a boost from the need to stock up on essentials in the early days of the pandemic, the value orientation they present and their ability to effectively align with mission driven shopping.  And this is further supported by cross shopping data. In April 2020, 7.7% of Costco shoppers also visited a Sam’s Club location during the month, but that number grew to 8.9% in April 2021. This means that more people were shopping at both brands, as overall visits were rising for both. 

Costco’s Return to Dominance

And Costco, specifically, may be positioned for an even stronger result in the coming months. While the brand saw visits up in several key regions, California still lags behind the nationwide benchmark. This is very important as California is the single largest state for Costco locations with over 20% of the company’s overall footprint. So, while the brand is already deep into its recovery, a second surge in visits could be just around the corner. 

Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, Costco is experiencing the strength as customer behavior normalizes. Median duration dropped 2.7% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4, and while the metric stayed flat between March and April 2021, it was down 12.2% year over year in April. Looking at April year over year, morning visit percentage declined sharply between 6 and 9 am, and 9 am and 12 pm. In exchange, evening visits between 6 and 9 pm increased. 

Even More Wholesale Strength?

So where is the sector going?

The examined wholesale leaders seem to be among the best positioned companies in all of retail. First, they are well aligned with the environment of economic uncertainty many expect to define the coming months. Second, they have a proven capacity to evolve alongside consumer behavior shifts. If shoppers want to venture out less, they purchase more with each trip, and if they want to venture out more, they purchase slightly less. However you add it up, shoppers still come and they still convert. Third, the model is sticky. Data indicates that Costco added many new members in the last year, and that factor is only going to incentivize more visits and purchases in the coming years. Fourth, Costco still hasn’t seen its post pandemic ceiling, and with California increasingly reopening, that ceiling could be even higher than previously expected.

The end result is a likely scenario where BJ’s Wholesale Club and Sam’s Club continue to grow even as Costco maintains its dominant position. In short, a powerful tide lifting several powerful boats.


How will the sector evolve? Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Exploring Luxury Hotel Brands’ Guest Segmentation
The St. Patrick’s Day Effect
How Can JOANN Make a Comeback?
Panera Bread Well Positioned for Possible IPO
Who Will Benefit From Family Dollar’s Downsizing?
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment: Food and Fun for Everyone
Darden Brands: Location Analytics and Consumer Behavior
Nike and lululemon: a Strong 2023, Sprinting into 2024
Where Is Retail and Dining Foot Traffic Thriving in Early 2024?
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – February 2024
Three Retail & Dining Chains That May Surprise in 2024
Specialty Discount Chains Rock Retail Therapy
Placer.ai Mall Index: February 2024
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2024 Recap
Ulta Beauty Continues To Shine
First Watch Sails Into 2024
Hibbett Sports and DICK’S Sporting Goods: A Psychographic Analysis
Checking in With Discount & Dollar Stores
Peeking Behind The Curtain: Movie Theaters in 2023 and Beyond
Diving Into Brick-and-Mortar Eyewear
Getting Into Gear: Exploring The Auto Part Industry
Recapping Valentine’s Day 2024 Foot Traffic Trends
Fitness: A Strong Start to 2024
Dutch Bros. Continues To Percolate Visits
Super Bowl 2024: Placer.ai’s Postgame Foot Traffic Analysis
CAVA & sweetgreen Are On the Rise
Hats Off For Off-Price
Who Is Shopping at Malls?
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains
Placer.ai Office Index: Looking Back at 2023
Recapping RBI & Yum! Brands’ 2023 Foot Traffic Performance
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – January 2024
Who Shops at Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters?
Three Taco Chains to Watch in 2024
Starbucks and Dunkin’: 2023 in Four Data Points
Who Visits CVS and Walgreens?
Fashionably Frugal: Apparel in 2023
Catching Up With Fast Food
The Grocery Sector in 2023: An End-of-Year Recap
3 Mall & Shopping Center Trends for 2024
Bakery Chains Rising To The Top
Placer.ai and Esri Partner to Deliver Geospatial Analytics
Tampa Tourism Trends
Going For The Green: The Changing Dynamics Of Country Clubs
Christmas Day Dining Recap
Major Urban Shopping Districts – Holiday Season Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: December 2023 Recap
Recapping the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – December 2023
7 Retail & Dining Segments to Watch in 2024
Diving Into Holiday Season Favorites
Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve: A Winning Combination
3 Budget Grocery Chains Finishing 2023 On a High Note
Making It In America: International Chicken Chains Bring The Heat
Domestic Tourism at a Glance: A Q3 2023 Roundup
Five Pizza Chains On The Rise
Jewelry Brands Taking Advantage of the DTC Opportunity
Secondhand News: Kids' Thrift Shops
Recapping 2023’s Dining M&As
MetLife Stadium Kicks Off Football Season
Placer.ai Office Index: November 2023 Recap
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: September 2023 Recap