Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Placer Bytes: Back to School Revival?

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
August 27, 2020
Placer Bytes: Back to School Revival?

There are few sectors that rely on the back-to-school season to the same extent as office and school supply leaders. From Office Depot to mass merchandise leaders like Walmart, the season can drive huge returns.

So, how has this season played out within the context of the COVID recovery?

2019’s Banner Season

Context is key to understanding performance, and understanding 2019’s back-to-school season goes a long way in helping to frame the current results being seen. Walmart, Target, and Best Buy all saw significant visits increases year over year in August 2019, with these numbers proving to be all the more impressive considering they marked increases on existing seasonal peaks. 

And even brands like Office Depot and Staples, which saw declines year over year, saw a strong season. Though these were visit decreases, they were actually much more limited than other months when these drops were closer to 10% year over year - a result of store closures and a general sector decline.

Understanding the Declines

And this is critical context for understanding why 2020 year-over-year data looks the way it does. Brands like Staples and Office Depot are feeling the strain of the pandemic to a large extent because of the heights they normally reach during this period. Uncertainty around school openings and the economic situation is clearly impacting their normal peak. 

Conversely, it makes the more limited declines for Best Buy, Walmart, and Target all the more impressive. The three have seen relatively minor impacts on their visit rates, even when compared to one of their annual peaks. It would have been fair to expect that these brands would all have seen significant drops at an increasing velocity, but they managed to remain stable. 

The Recovery

And nowhere is the recovery more evident for these brands than in their week-over-week data. All of the brands analyzed have seen growth since the week beginning July 27th, signifying a strong momentum to the overall retail recovery. So, while the pinnacle of the back-to-school season will likely be lower than in 2019, the peak is still taking place, giving a needed boost to this sector.

The Walmart Effect

The one massive risk for Staples and Office Depot in particular could be coming from mass merchandise players like Walmart and Target. Looking at visit duration in August 2019 and comparing it to 2020 shows that Walmart has seen time in-store increase by 4.5%. This is a very significant increase, especially when considering the massive numbers of visitors that Walmart locations see. It indicates that shoppers are looking to accomplish more with each visit, something that benefits Walmart and its incredibly wide variety of offerings. On the other hand, this could hurt a brand like Office Depot or Staples who otherwise might have benefitted from a shopping trip that included multiple stops.

Conclusion

Leaders in the office and school supply sectors are likely not going to match the heights they reached in 2019 offline. Yet, they are clearly in the midst of a significant recovery. And although Walmart, Target and Best Buy look to be bouncing back with strength, more focused retailers are seeing a new risk. Brands like Walmart and Target benefit from a wider selection that appeals to a shopper looking to do more with each visit. In this environment, players like Staples need to do more to show why they are worthy of a visit, especially considering the current environment.

However, they are also enjoying a situation where the home office’s importance has been raised to new heights. This could provide them with a more extended opportunity that is less dependent on a single season.
Will Office Depot and Staples thrive in this new situation? Will Target and Walmart dominate this space with their wide selection?

Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
The CAVA Craze: A Location Intelligence Perspective on the Mediterranean Marvel
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?
Northeastern USA Grocery Dive
Movie Theaters Storylines for 2023
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Discounters are Evolving
Leveraging Brick-and-Mortar Retail in 2023
America’s Evolving Work Patterns: A Deep-Dive into New York and Chicago
Placer.ai Mall Index March 2023
Tuning Into Record Stores
Five Franchises To Watch in 2023
What’s Next For Domestic Tourism?
It’s Showtime! Movie Theaters in the Spotlight
5 Limited Time Offers (LTOs) Driving Restaurant Traffic
Department Store Deep-Dive: Belk
Regional Grocery Chains Staying Ahead of the Competition
Five Chains that Rightsized for Success
Unlocking the Potential of Offline Retail Media Networks
Dining Out With Darden
What’s in Store for Self-Storage?
Nike & lululemon Update: Strong Performance Amid Expansion Plans
Many Ways to Win: Midwest Grocery Deep Dive
Retail, Reinvented: The Rise of the Pop-Up Shop
Navigating a New Normal in Business Travel & Commutes
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2023 Recap
Retail Categories Staying Strong in Volatile Environment
Ulta Beauty: Poised for Success into 2023
Placer.ai Mall Index February 2023: Reasons for Continued Optimism
Catching Up With DICK’s & Hibbett
The Miami-Dade Arena: An Advertising Slam Dunk
Car Washes Revving Up Visits
Tuesday Morning and Sunrises in Home Furnishing
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap
2023: The Year of the Discount Store
Aldi’s Success Highlights Growing Demand for Value Groceries
5 Retail & Service Categories Holding onto Pandemic Gains in 2023
Visitor Insights from Super Bowl 2023
2023 First Look: Home Improvement Update
How Are Target, Walmart, and Wholesale Clubs Faring in 2023?
Department Store Deep-Dive: Nordstrom
Off-Price: Taking Off in Uncertain Times
Checking in On Middle-Class Hubs
Who Attends the Super Bowl?
Placer.ai Office Index: January 2023 Recap
Focusing On Fitness: Q4 and January Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: January 2023 – Returning Mall Normalcy?
Location Intelligence Insights Into Concert Attendance
Winning Dining Strategies for 2023
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Location Intelligence Breakdown: Coffee Caps-Off 2022
Digitally Native Brands Lean Into Brick & Mortar
Washington, D.C. Population Changes & Migration Trends
A Location Intelligence Perspective on Macy’s Rightsizing
Amazon-Powered Shopping: The Future of Brick-and-Mortar Grocery?
Cold Weather, Hot Visits: Diving into Winter Resorts
Wawa and 7-Eleven: Leaning Into the “Slurpee Effect”
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle
Let’s Have Some Fun! Going Out Is In
Placer.ai’s Q4 2022 Quarterly Index
Placer.ai Adds Industry Executives to Leadership Team To Drive Company's Next Phase of Growth
5 Emerging Retail Formats: 2023’s Brick-and-Mortar Evolution
Grocery Update: Zooming in on the Lone Star State
2022 Office Recap: The Year of the TGIF Work Week
What Lies Ahead for Brick-and-Mortar Luxury in 2023
Placer.ai Mall Indexes: December 2022 Recap
Looking Back on 2022’s Holiday Shopping Season
Post-Pandemic Migration Trends in New York
Top Retailers for 2023
The Live Sports Advertising Opportunity
Domestic Migration to the Mountain States: Small Shifts with Big Implications
New Year, New Food: 5 Dining Trends For 2023
Announcing Placer.ai’s COVID RECOVERY DASHBOARD
This is Why Shop-in-Shops Are Everywhere
Super Saturday 2022 Recap
The San Francisco Shift