Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Placer Bytes: Back to School Revival?

By 
Ethan Chernofsky
August 27, 2020
Placer Bytes: Back to School Revival?
SHARE
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
Key Takeaways

There are few sectors that rely on the back-to-school season to the same extent as office and school supply leaders. From Office Depot to mass merchandise leaders like Walmart, the season can drive huge returns.

So, how has this season played out within the context of the COVID recovery?

2019’s Banner Season

Context is key to understanding performance, and understanding 2019’s back-to-school season goes a long way in helping to frame the current results being seen. Walmart, Target, and Best Buy all saw significant visits increases year over year in August 2019, with these numbers proving to be all the more impressive considering they marked increases on existing seasonal peaks. 

And even brands like Office Depot and Staples, which saw declines year over year, saw a strong season. Though these were visit decreases, they were actually much more limited than other months when these drops were closer to 10% year over year - a result of store closures and a general sector decline.

Understanding the Declines

And this is critical context for understanding why 2020 year-over-year data looks the way it does. Brands like Staples and Office Depot are feeling the strain of the pandemic to a large extent because of the heights they normally reach during this period. Uncertainty around school openings and the economic situation is clearly impacting their normal peak. 

Conversely, it makes the more limited declines for Best Buy, Walmart, and Target all the more impressive. The three have seen relatively minor impacts on their visit rates, even when compared to one of their annual peaks. It would have been fair to expect that these brands would all have seen significant drops at an increasing velocity, but they managed to remain stable. 

The Recovery

And nowhere is the recovery more evident for these brands than in their week-over-week data. All of the brands analyzed have seen growth since the week beginning July 27th, signifying a strong momentum to the overall retail recovery. So, while the pinnacle of the back-to-school season will likely be lower than in 2019, the peak is still taking place, giving a needed boost to this sector.

The Walmart Effect

The one massive risk for Staples and Office Depot in particular could be coming from mass merchandise players like Walmart and Target. Looking at visit duration in August 2019 and comparing it to 2020 shows that Walmart has seen time in-store increase by 4.5%. This is a very significant increase, especially when considering the massive numbers of visitors that Walmart locations see. It indicates that shoppers are looking to accomplish more with each visit, something that benefits Walmart and its incredibly wide variety of offerings. On the other hand, this could hurt a brand like Office Depot or Staples who otherwise might have benefitted from a shopping trip that included multiple stops.

Conclusion

Leaders in the office and school supply sectors are likely not going to match the heights they reached in 2019 offline. Yet, they are clearly in the midst of a significant recovery. And although Walmart, Target and Best Buy look to be bouncing back with strength, more focused retailers are seeing a new risk. Brands like Walmart and Target benefit from a wider selection that appeals to a shopper looking to do more with each visit. In this environment, players like Staples need to do more to show why they are worthy of a visit, especially considering the current environment.

However, they are also enjoying a situation where the home office’s importance has been raised to new heights. This could provide them with a more extended opportunity that is less dependent on a single season.
Will Office Depot and Staples thrive in this new situation? Will Target and Walmart dominate this space with their wide selection?

Visit Placer.ai to find out.

Learn how downtown regions across US cities are measuring up with our free tools.
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.

Related Topics

Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
SHARE
Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Recent Publications

Get 3 brand & industry breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter
Checking in With Department Stores: Nordstrom and Macy’s
Superstores and Wholesale Clubs Ahead of the Holidays
Home Depot and Lowe’s Heading Into the Holidays
Starbucks and Dutch Bros: Short Visits Lead the Way
Planet Fitness: Raising the Bar(bell)
Checking in With Full-Service Restaurants: First Watch, Chili’s, and Outback Steakhouse
RBI and Yum!: QSR Resilience in 2024
Boot Barn and DSW: Stepping Up Their Game
Target’s October Circle Week: A Data-Driven Snapshot
Chipotle, Shake Shack & Wingstop: Dining Success in Q3 2024
Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe: Berry Big Business
Cheesecake Factory & BJ’s Restaurants: Full-Service Success
Checking in on McDonald's and Wendy's 
Sprouts Farmers Market: A Specialty Grocer With a Traditional Twist
CAVA: The Craze Continues
Placer.ai Reaches $100M Annual Recurring Revenue
Catching Up With Carter's 
A Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse Showdown
Placer.ai Mall Index: September 2024 Recap – Labor Day Peaks and Holiday Season Predictions
Albertsons Q3 Check-In
Looking Ahead to the 2024 Holiday Season
Trader Joe's: Continuing to Thrive in 2024
Bowlero and AMF: A Ten-Pin Knockout
Recreational Retail: Store Performance in 2024
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – September 2024
A QSR and Fast-Casual Face-Off
Sam’s Club’s In-Store Retail Media Network Opportunity
The Rising Stars: Six Metro Areas Welcoming Young Professionals
Costco in 2024: A Deep Dive
Sherwin-Williams in 2024: Brighter Than a New Lick of Paint
Life Time and Orangetheory: Premium Fitness Flourishing
C-Stores: More Than A Pit Stop
Darden: Dining Dominance Undeterred 
Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining: August 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2024 Recap – Back-To-School In Full Swing
Auto Parts Retailers: The Traffic Continues
Pumpkin Spice Works its Magic Once Again
School Season Sparks Retail Growth
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – July & August 2024
Big Lots’ Big Rightsizing Move in Four Data Points
Fun Away From The Sun: Checking in With Eatertainment
Domestic Migration and Population Growth: Strong Currents Off The Carolina Coast
The Civic Impact of Summer Events
Retail Trends in College Towns: A Back-to-School Snapshot
Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Consumers Still on the Hunt for Discounts
Macy’s & Bloomingdale’s: Into 2024 and Beyond
Limited Time Only: The Trend Continues
Beauty in 2024: Many Ways to Win
Dollar General & Dollar Tree: Powering Ahead in Q2 2024
The Home Depot and Lowe's Foot Traffic Remodel in Q2 2024
Superstore Update: Summer Savings Spree
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2024 Recap – From Fourth of July to Back-to-School
Placer.ai Office Index: July 2024 Recap
Summer Movie Madness: Blockbuster Films Boost Foot Traffic
Driving Success: Toyota in 2024
Denny’s and IHOP: An All-Day Breakfast Matchup
Warby Parker: Seeing Clearly Now
Planet Fitness at the 2024 Halfway Point
Serving Summer 2024: RBI and Yum! Brands Q2 Foot Traffic
Starbucks, Dutch Bros., Dunkin’: Finding Summer Success
Fast Food and Fast Casual Favorites, Plus CosMc’s Takeoff
Chipotle and Sweetgreen: Fast-Casual in Q2 2024
First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s: An FSR Roundup
Albertsons Companies: H1 2024 Recap
Teaming Up For Success: Sports Stadium Sponsorships
Limited Time Offers: Price Wars Boost Visits
Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: June 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: June 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2024 Recap
Inside Out 2: The New Blockbuster Bringing Crowds Back to Theaters
Petco and PetSmart: A Head to Head
Frozen Delights: Exploring Ice Cream Chains Across America
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – June 2024
Barnes & Noble: Writing a New Story
Small Format Stores - Sprouting, Blooming, and Expanding
Retail and Dining on Father’s Day
Thrift Store Visit Scores
Charting Value Grocery’s Visit Growth
Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: Introduction and May 2024 Recap
Digging Into Darden: Q2 2024 Update
2024 Retail and Dining Trends Update
TRU and avid: Midscale Hotels on the Rise 
Diving Into Kroger: A Strong Start to 2024
Placer.ai Mall Index: May 2024 Recap – Mall Visits on the Rebound
Placer.ai Office Index: May 2024 Recap
2024 Memorial Day Recap
Las Vegas: A Tourism and Migration Deep Dive
Eatertainment Chains: Full on Food, Fun, and Foot Traffic
The Promise of Luxury Apparel
Catching Up With Ulta Beauty & Gap Brands
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves
CAVA Still Going Strong
Driving Success: Auto Parts Chains in 2024
Checking in With DICK’S Sporting Goods
Mother’s Day Shopping and Dining Trends
Placer.ai Mall Index: April 2024 Recap – Retail Resilience Heading into Spring
Dollar Stores Still Gaining Momentum
Off-Price Apparel Chains After Q1 2024: Demographics in the Balance
Walmart, Target, and Wholesale Clubs Continue to Thrive