Superstores

Our analysis of Q2 2025 retail foot traffic data reveals a stark divergence between America’s top retailers. Walmart showcased resilient in-store traffic, validating its omnichannel investments and reinforcing its dominance in essential goods. Meanwhile, Target faced persistent declines, signaling significant headwinds from the consumer pullback in discretionary spending. This report breaks down the data, the underlying strategies, and the investor outlook for both retail giants.

The first half of 2025 shows a bifurcated retail market. While foot traffic is up for experiences and value brands, it lags for discretionary items. This is driving leasing momentum in prime locations, even as overall retail sales are propped up by high-income households.

July 2025 promotions primarily boosted weekday retail traffic, but overall in-store visits were down YoY. Walmart notably defied this trend with increased visits. Consumers focused on high-value purchases during the period.

The US economy shows a split. Retail visits rebounded in May-June, driven by value and promotions, after a slow start. This consumer resilience contrasts with a slowdown in manufacturing and port activity since May, as businesses brace for potential tariff volatility in H2 2025.

Limited-edition product launches powerfully drive retail traffic. Trader Joe's Mini Totes and Target's Kate Spade launch show how manufactured scarcity and non-price incentives engage diverse consumers, proving their enduring power in today's market.

Target's visits slowed post-mid-2022. August's seasonal strength offers a comeback chance. Its August audience includes families, singles, and students. Target can leverage diverse offerings and in-store experiences to drive loyalty and year-round traffic.

Wholesale clubs were foot traffic winners in Q1 2025. We took a closer look at how weather and expanding footprints played a part in visitation trends for Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale and how the demographic characteristics of visitors impacted in-store shopping behavior. 

Find out all the thoughts Chris Walton has had about retail throughout Q1 2025. Which brands are thriving, which are poised for a turnaround, and who may be on the decline?