Coffee & QSR

Four years after their IPOs, First Watch, Portillo’s, and sweetgreen are navigating a new dining reality. First Watch continues strong growth, Portillo’s cools after expansion, and sweetgreen balances new tech and suburban growth to sustain its momentum.

Wendy’s same-store visits dropped 6.3% YoY in Q3 2025 amid high costs and discounting pressure. But a simplified promotion strategy – led by the $1 breakfast biscuit deal – fueled double-digit breakfast growth in August. The brand’s new “fewer, bigger deals” approach could help reignite momentum heading into year-end.

In Q3 2025, Yum! Brands outperformed the broader QSR category, led by Taco Bell’s continued strength and recoveries at KFC and Pizza Hut. Meanwhile, Restaurant Brands International (RBI) saw overall declines, though Firehouse Subs’ steady visit growth stood out as a bright spot.

Shake Shack and Wingstop’s Q3 2025 data reveals diverging trends in the fast-casual sector. Shake Shack’s growth stems from rapid expansion despite flat same-store traffic, while Wingstop faces tougher comps and digital shifts. Promotions remain key traffic drivers.

The coffee segment grew 1.4% YoY in Q3 2025, outperforming broader QSR declines. Starbucks and Dunkin’ saw modest visit drops, Dutch Bros continued to expand, and rising chains like 7 Brew, Better Buzz, Foxtail Coffee, and Black Rock Coffee Bar fueled much of the category’s momentum.

In Q3 2025, McDonald’s and Chipotle contended with slowing traffic and sector-wide dining headwinds. McDonald’s faced visit declines despite promotions, while Chipotle relied on expansion to sustain growth. Both chains enter Q4 balancing momentum against mounting pressure.

From McDonald’s Extra Value Meals to Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesdays and Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day, the latest foot traffic data reveals what types of QSR promotions still move the needle in 2025.

Black Rock Coffee’s $1.32B IPO underscores its rapid expansion, affluent customer base, and similarities to Dutch Bros’ trajectory. With visits up 226% since 2019 and a target of 1,000 stores by 2035, the chain’s strategy highlights significant growth potential in new markets.