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We recently launched a podcast called Anchored – and if you're a frequent visitor of The Anchor, this one's for you. Anchored brings together the sharpest minds in retail, real estate, and consumer behavior for honest, in-depth conversations about where the industry is actually headed.
Every episode is packed with ideas worth holding onto. Here are a few standout insights from our released episodes in Season 1:
Watch: The $4 Billion Ceiling: Why Great Retail Brands Stop Growing
Watch: Why Retail Needs More Art and Less Science
Watch: From Hype to Hybrid: The Evolution of Retail Media
Watch: The In-Store Mega Channel
Watch: Convenience Meets Connection
Watch: The New Retail Recipe
The common thread: the physical store is worth far more than most brands realize. Listen to Anchored to hear why – and explore more retail insights at Placer.ai/anchor.
The 2026 World Cup kicked off on June 11th – and so, it turns out, did one of Chipotle's biggest traffic days of the year. To mark the occasion, the fast-casual chain offered a buy-one-get-one entrée deal to anyone who walked in wearing a soccer jersey after 3 p.m. local time.
And the promotion delivered a World-Cup-worthy visit spike. Nationwide foot traffic on June 11 ran 55.5% above Chipotle's 2026 year-to-date daily average – edging out the chain’s March tattoo BOGO, which ran 48.8% above the daily average. A jersey, it would seem, is an easier ask than a tattoo – even a fake one. And unlike the tattoo promotion, which was only available from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m., the World Cup offer ran through closing, giving customers a much larger window to participate.
The afternoon launch also concentrated demand later in the day. Because the promotion began at 3 p.m., visits between 3 p.m. and 10 p.m. ran 88.0% above the year-to-date average for those hours, significantly outpacing the all-day lift.
Chipotle's World Cup BOGO is a reminder of how much a well-timed, low-friction promotion can move foot traffic – especially one tied to a cultural moment as big as the World Cup. The jersey requirement kept the barrier to entry low, the 3 p.m. start funneled demand into the dinner daypart, and the brand's everyday regulars likely did the rest.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
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Darden Restaurants will report year-end results on June 25, closing the books on a fiscal year in which the Olive Garden parent raised its guidance even as much of casual dining contended with cautious consumers. What's powering the outperformance – and which of Darden's banners are doing the heavy lifting? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to Darden's brands climbed 2.4% year over year (YoY) in Q1 2026 (January through March), even as traffic to the wider full-service restaurant category fell 1.3%.
And the gap doesn't just reflect Darden's expanding fleet. Average visits per location rose 0.5% YoY across the company's brands while declining 0.5% for the category as a whole – suggesting Darden is driving incremental demand at existing restaurants, not just adding new ones. The pattern echoes the results posted by the company last quarter, when blended same-restaurant sales beat the casual dining benchmark by 540 basis points.
Visits and Average Visits Per Location, Q1 (Jan.–Mar.) 2026 vs. Q1 2025
So what is fueling Darden’s success?
Among the company’s two largest brands, LongHorn Steakhouse has been the clear pacesetter, posting YoY same-store visit growth in every month of 2026 so far. The brand is likely benefiting from America's protein obsession, with meat demand climbing as high-protein diets go mainstream. And with grocery-store beef prices elevated, a steakhouse dinner may feel like particularly good value – especially as Darden has deliberately kept LongHorn's menu pricing below inflation while continuing to invest in food quality. That pricing gap may begin to narrow, however, as management has indicated that menu price increases are expected to move closer to inflation levels this quarter.
Olive Garden's performance, by contrast, has been more volatile. Some of the brand’s YoY visit fluctuations likely reflect calendar effects – March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, while May benefited from an extra Sunday. But the flagship is also doing plenty right. Its springtime Buy One, Take One promotion and lighter-portion menu options have helped sharpen its value message, likely contributing to May's return to growth. And the brand delivered when it mattered most: On Mother's Day – one of the biggest dining-out occasions of the year – average visits per location to Olive Garden jumped 4.1% YoY, even as full-service restaurant visits rose just 2.2%.
Elsewhere in Darden's casual dining portfolio, Chuy’s slipped in four of the first five months of 2026, underscoring the challenges facing full-service Tex-Mex operators amid intense competition from fast-casual alternatives. Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, meanwhile – the company's deepest value brand – generated same-store visit growth in four of the first five months of 2026, including a 3.1% increase in May. While some of that performance likely reflects easier comparisons, it also underscores the continued appeal of clearly differentiated value-oriented dining.
Darden's strongest momentum, however, is coming from the upper end of its portfolio. After entering fiscal 2026 with same-restaurant sales declining amid soft business travel, Darden’s fine-dining segment swung to 2.1% growth by last quarter on private dining gains and Ruth's Chris Steak House's three-course fixed-price menu. And visit data suggests this recovery continued into the spring, with May benefiting from a strong Mother’s Day across the segment: Average visits per location to The Capital Grille surged 16.7% YoY on the holiday, while Ruth’s Chris and Eddie V’s posted gains of 7.9% and 5.9%, respectively.
Upscale casual Yard House also performed well – strength management has credited to the brand's "socially energized bar" and distinctive menu, which position it as a social gathering destination rather than just another dinner stop.
Darden's results highlight the advantage of a diversified portfolio built around distinct consumer occasions and value propositions. Cheddar's owns everyday affordability, LongHorn serves a juicy steak at an accessible price point, Yard House anchors a night out, and the fine dining banners serve as go-to destinations for life’s celebrations. Olive Garden, meanwhile, competes in the most crowded part of the casual dining market, and its more uneven performance reflects that. But the flagship's value plays – and its standout Mother's Day – suggest it is finding its footing in the middle, too.
Can Darden's distinct brand positioning continue to drive outperformance as 2026 unfolds?
Check back with Placer.ai/anchor for the latest traffic insights.
On a national level, retail foot traffic held notably steady in May 2026. However, even relatively small fluctuations at the state level tell a story of two external pressures – a sharp run-up at the pump and a destructive mid-May storm outbreak – shaping consumer behavior.
The chart below shows year-over-year (YoY) visits to overall retail by state in May 2026. And while performance varied somewhat by state,all changes remained within the narrow range of ±2 percentage points. Nationwide, overall retail sat relatively flat at 0.3% YoY – stability that suggests that consumers are closely managing their budgets amid a challenging economic backdrop.
Still, even modest year-over-year swings in foot traffic highlight the influence of two state-level pressures: ongoing gas price increases and adverse weather conditions.
Gas prices continued to climb sharply in May 2026, and the map above suggests a relationship between YoY price hikes at the pump and retail visitation patterns. Regions that experienced the largest YoY increases in gas prices, such as the Midwest and Ohio – where prices climbed by over 45% and 50%, respectively – were often those that saw retail foot traffic soften. This could at least partly reflect consumers adjusting their spending to offset higher fuel costs.
Meanwhile, the regions with the lowest average gas price, the Gulf Coast and Lower Atlantic, or the West Coast – which experienced the smallest YoY price increase of (only) about 30% – for the most part posted positive YoY retail foot traffic. This trend held even as average gas prices along the West Coast reached over $5.5 per gallon – the highest in the country – suggesting that changes in gas prices had a greater impact on consumer traffic patterns than the absolute price level itself.
But fuel costs were only part of the retail foot traffic story in May 2026. Across the Midwest and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, a multi-day severe weather outbreak brought tornadoes, large hail, and flash flooding to the region. The same weather system also contributed to wildfire activity across southwestern Kansas and parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle.
As the map above shows, the band of declining retail visits running through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic – closely tracking the path of these storms. This alignment suggests that severe weather amplified existing economic headwinds and gas price sensitivity, limiting consumer movement in affected markets.
May's retail traffic patterns suggest overall consumer caution with regional nuance influenced by varying degrees of gas price pressures and local weather events.
What will retail foot traffic look like in the weeks ahead? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Amazon recently announced that Prime Day 2026 will take place from June 23rd to 26th, marking an earlier-than-usual start to the summer promotional season. While Prime Day itself is primarily an online event, retailers with a significant brick-and-mortar presence often join the fray with competing sales, either during Amazon's event or in the lead-up to Fourth of July promotions. So what does retail foot traffic reveal about the state of the consumer heading into this key shopping period? We dove into the data to find out.
Despite ongoing headwinds, foot traffic to major retail chains for the first five months of the year stayed in positive territory relative to 2025, a notable showing given the macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on consumer sentiment. And even though the pace of growth has cooled since March – likely due in part to the sharp increase in gas prices – the direction never turned negative.
That consistency matters heading into Prime Day. Even as growth moderated through the spring, audiences continued to choose physical retail, suggesting that in-store visits are holding up rather than ceding ground to online channels. For retailers planning competing summer promotions, the steady baseline of positive year-over-year (YoY) traffic suggests that demand is present, and the opportunity lies in converting resilient visit volume into stronger spend during the promotional window.
Segmenting consumer traffic by driving distance shows that even the most acute headwind facing consumers right now – elevated gas prices – has done little to fundamentally alter shopping behavior. Even though longer-distance visits pulled back sharply in March with the onset of the gas price hike, the retreat proved short-lived – by April, every distance band had returned to positive growth, and the recovery held into May.
The quick rebound suggests that the March pullback in longer drives was largely temporary and did not mark a lasting shift toward online shopping. Consumers remain willing to make longer trips to stores – a healthy signal of shopping intent heading into the summer promotional season. And with gas prices now beginning to ease, the conditions look even more favorable for offline retailers as the promotional season approaches.
Zooming in on weekly visits to major retailers, however, reveals a more volatile, retailer-specific picture beneath the steady monthly averages.
The biggest distinction is between retailers entering the summer from a position of strength and those looking for a boost. Costco, Target, and (to a slightly lesser effect) Best Buy maintained year-over-year traffic gains throughout the spring – suggesting that, for these retailers, promotional events are more likely to amplify existing momentum than to create it.
Meanwhile, Walmart's traffic in recent weeks remained largely in line with last year, potentially reflecting continued pressure on its more value-oriented customer base – making the upcoming promotional events an important opportunity to reignite growth.
Home Depot and Lowe's fall somewhere in between. Both have shown signs of improvement after a prolonged slowdown, making the July 4th period an important test of whether that recovery can continue.
Consumer sentiment remains under pressure ahead of the early summer promotional events, but foot traffic data suggests that shoppers have not materially pulled back from physical stores. The resilience of longer-distance visits, combined with easing gas prices and generally positive traffic trends, points to a consumer who is becoming more selective rather than disengaged.
As retailers roll out competing promotions over the coming weeks, the key question will be where they choose to spend. Retailers already generating traffic momentum appear well positioned to capitalize on the season, while those facing softer visitation trends will be looking to promotions to reaccelerate growth.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Perhaps the nicest gift you can give a parent is a meal they don't have to cook – complete with cloth napkins, quality family time, and no dishes to clean afterward. That's why Mother's Day and Father's Day consistently deliver some of the biggest traffic surges of the year for full-service restaurants (FSRs).
But with fuel prices still elevated and consumers continuing to watch their spending, will families still splurge on dining out this Father's Day, or will some opt for lower-cost alternatives? Which restaurant chains stand to benefit the most from the holiday – and where might diners find a quieter table if they're hoping to avoid the crowds?
Mother's Day and Father's Day have long ranked among the restaurant industry's most important occasions – and Mother's Day this year was no exception.
On May 10th, 2026, visits to full-service restaurants surged 56.0% above the average Sunday, while rising 1.5% year over year compared to Mother's Day 2025. Diners also spent more time at restaurants, with average dwell time climbing 12.8% above a typical Sunday – suggesting longer celebrations and potentially larger checks.
Limited-service restaurants, meanwhile, saw visits dip slightly below their typical Sunday baseline – suggesting that consumers weren't trading down. Even amid economic uncertainty, families appeared willing to pay a premium for the experience of celebrating Mom with a sit-down meal. And with Mother's Day and Father's Day consistently ranking among the busiest days of the year for full-service restaurants, Mother's Day's strong performance bodes well for another successful Father's Day season.
Sunday Visits to Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurants vs. the 12-Month Sunday Average
FSR Visits on Mother’s Day 2026 vs. Mother’s Day 2025
Mother’s Day vs. 12-Month Sunday Average (FSR)
Father’s Day vs. 12-Month Sunday Average (FSR)
On a typical Sunday, Texas Roadhouse is already the nation's most-visited full-service restaurant chain, capturing 7.9% of FSR visits. Chili's follows at 7.1%, while Olive Garden captures 6.5%.
Mother's Day reshuffles the leaderboard somewhat. Both Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden gain meaningful share as families gather for celebratory meals, with Texas Roadhouse narrowly maintaining its lead. On Mother's Day 2026, Texas Roadhouse captured 9.2% of FSR visits, while Olive Garden followed closely at 8.8%.
Father's Day, however, is a very different story. Last year, Texas Roadhouse captured 9.4% of all full-service restaurant visits, while both Chili's (5.8%) and Olive Garden (5.7%) lagged far behind. Steak, it seems, is exceptionally dad-coded.
The flip side, of course, is that Father's Day may be one of the quieter times to enjoy a plate of unlimited breadsticks. As families flock to steakhouses to celebrate Dad, Olive Garden's share of visits falls well below its typical Sunday levels, making it a surprisingly uncrowded alternative for diners looking to avoid the holiday rush.
Parents, it turns out, are very good for the restaurant business. And if Mother's Day is any indication, June 21st is poised to provide another meaningful boost for the segment this year – giving operators another opportunity to capitalize on one of the category's most reliable traffic-driving occasions.
To keep on top of full-service dining trends, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
