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The beauty industry continues to flourish, with external factors like the rise of #BeautyTok, the influence of online creators, and a steady stream of new products driving interest. Within this landscape, Ulta (ULTA) has been driving strong sales, capitalizing on continued interest in beauty to fuel this growth.
Following major gains through the pandemic years and beyond, Ulta's visits have flattened slightly. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the chain grew by 1.4% year over year (YoY), likely thanks to store openings (Ulta opened 62 new stores between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025), as same-store visits declined by 1.1% in the same period.
Despite softer same-store foot traffic as seen in the chart below, Ulta delivered strong comp sales growth of 2.9% last quarter, driven by a 2.3% rise in average ticket size and a 10.0% increase in e-commerce sales. Now, the chain seems to be entering a new phase of its story, choosing to wind down its Target partnership in favor of its Ulta Beauty Unleashed growth plan.
As Ulta’s growth momentum slows, its decision not to renew its six-year partnership with Target may be a strategic move to direct traffic to its growing store fleet.
The partnership launched in 2021 with the goals of making prestige beauty more accessible to Target shoppers while helping Ulta "deepen loyalty with existing guests and introduce Ulta Beauty to new guests." And, at least for Ulta, the strategy seems to have worked – the share of Target shoppers also visiting Ulta stores has increased significantly since the launch, as seen in the chart below. This suggests that the Ulta shop-in-shops helped the chain acquire new customers through the brand exposure generated by the partnership.
But the data also suggests that the benefits to Ulta may be diminishing. Since 2023, the share of Target shoppers also visiting Ulta appears to have plateaued around 30%, indicating that the shop-in-shops are no longer driving meaningful traffic to stand-alone Ulta stores. Meanwhile, Ulta now has a larger store fleet than it did in 2021 (the company opened approximately 150 new stores between Q2 2021 and Q1 2025). This expansion likely also contributed to increased cross-visitation while reducing the partnership's value proposition, as beauty consumers now have more opportunities to visit standalone Ulta stores. With the partnership's customer acquisition benefits plateauing and Ulta's expanded footprint reducing reliance on Target's locations, ending the collaboration appears to be a logical step toward maximizing traffic to Ulta's own stores.
Now, both brands have new opportunities to focus on their relative strengths. For Ulta, that means building out its Ulta Beauty Unleashed program, which will see the brand focus on improving store operations, enhancing the digital experience, and moving into new markets. Meanwhile, incoming Target CEO Michael Fiddelke plans to take the company back to its roots, focusing on its own merchandise and using technology to improve efficiency.
As Ulta transitions away from its Target partnership and focuses on its Ulta Beauty Unleashed growth plan, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on expanding store operations, enhanced digital experiences, and entry into new markets.
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Dollar General and Dollar Tree have grown significantly in recent years, upending the competitive dynamics in the wider retail landscape. Can these chains continue to grow? Or are they beginning to reach their saturation point? We dove into the data to find out.
Dollar Tree recently completed the sale of the Family Dollar brand, allowing management to dedicate its efforts to "Dollar Tree's long-term growth, profitability and returns on capital."
The strategic refocus appears to be already paying off. As the chart below shows, year-over-year (YoY) overall and same-store visits to the chain have surged in recent months, indicating strong organic performance amplified by fleet expansion.
Meanwhile, Dollar General is also experiencing traffic growth – though momentum has cooled slightly. After posting a robust 12.2% visit increase between July 2023 and July 2024, growth has decelerated to 2.9% year-over-year in July 2025.
Still, although Dollar General's growth has slowed while Dollar Tree's growth has picked up, Dollar General remains the significantly larger chain. In H1 2025, 58.7% of combined visits to the two retailers went to Dollar General, compared to 41.3% of visits to Dollar Tree. And just because Dollar General's growth has slowed somewhat does not mean that the company has reached its saturation point.
Even though both chains have been growing for several years, geographic data reveals that domestic expansion opportunities for both retailers still exist.
The map below shows the share of combined visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree going to each chain by DMA. Dollar Tree receives a majority of visits in the yellow DMAs, which are heavily concentrated in the Western United States. In contrast, Dollar General receives the majority of visits in the purple DMAs which cover most of the Midwest and South.
This distinct geographic segmentation indicates that rather than competing head-to-head, each chain has built regional strongholds – creating significant white space opportunities for cross-regional expansion. Dollar Tree's renewed focus and accelerating traffic position it well to build up its position in the South and Midwest – Dollar General's traditional markets. Conversely, Dollar General's established operational scale and proven rural market penetration strategy could drive significant growth for the chain in Dollar Tree's Western strongholds.
Dollar Tree’s sharpened focus and accelerating traffic growth signal strong long-term potential, while Dollar General’s scale ensures it remains a formidable player despite cooling momentum. With distinct geographic strongholds, both retailers still have significant white space for expansion – setting the stage for continued growth rather than saturation.
For the most up-to-date superstore visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.
Value-oriented retailers Ollie's Bargain Market (OLLI) and Five Below (FIVE) continue their impressive growth trajectory, with Q2 2025 visits surging 18.3% and 14.3% year-over-year, respectively.
Both chains are aggressively expanding their footprints – Ollie's acquired around 40 Big Lots leases and opened 25 of its projected 75 new stores by May 2025, while Five Below plans to add 150 locations this year after opening hundreds in 2024. Critically, the expansions are not coming at the expense of existing stores. Same-store visits grew 9.4% at Ollie's and 5.9% at Five Below, meaning individual locations are actually busier now than last year – despite the larger fleet size.
These positive traffic trends underscore the strong consumer appetite for value-oriented discretionary retail in today's economic environment and highlight the growth potential of the two chains.
Five Below and Ollie's positive visit trends demonstrate that growth doesn't have to be zero-sum. Rather than cannibalizing each other's traffic, both chains are successfully growing in parallel, as their increased store presence and busier locations expand the overall value-oriented discretionary retail market.
This growth can also be seen from the cross-visitation data in the chart below. H1 2025 saw the largest share of Ollie's shoppers visiting Five Below and the largest share of Five Below shoppers visiting Ollie's in recent years. (The cross-visitation from Ollie's to Five Below was likely significantly higher than the reverse due to Five Below's much larger physical footprint.)
This rising cross-visitation between the two chains validates the expanding market opportunity for value-oriented discretionary retail, as consumers increasingly embrace multiple value-oriented shopping destinations to meet their needs.
The strong performance of Five Below and Ollie's in Q2 2025 demonstrates the resilience and growth potential of the discount retail sector during challenging economic times.
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Gap Inc. is showing real signs of progress in its turnaround efforts. Since CEO Richard Dickson took the helm in August 2023, the company has been working to revitalize its portfolio of brands – and the latest foot traffic data confirms that strategy is beginning to deliver results.
In Q2 2025, visits to the company’s four banners—Old Navy, Gap, Athleta, and Banana Republic—rose 3.6% year over year (YoY), outperforming the broader apparel category (excluding department stores and off-price retailers), which saw traffic decline 2.2%.
Focusing on the company’s two largest and strongest performers, Old Navy led with a 4.8% increase in overall foot traffic and a 4.5% gain in same-store visits. The namesake Gap brand also posted growth despite a smaller U.S. store base. Notably, overall visits to Gap slightly outpaced same-store sales, signaling that store closures are effectively removing underperformers, while new locations are resonating with shoppers.
Turning to monthly foot traffic trends, both Old Navy and Gap posted significant year-over-year visit gains in April and May 2025 before seeing visitation taper in June and July.
The two chains’ springtime surge may be partially attributed to tariff pull-forward. Following the announcement of new tariffs in early April, many consumers appear to have accelerated purchases to avoid anticipated price increases. This pull-forward effect likely shifted demand into April and May, inflating growth in the short term but contributing to softer traffic in June and July. Memorial Day sales and campaigns like the company’s “Feels Like Gap” campaign may have also resonated with consumers.
Another encouraging sign for the company lies in the shifting income profiles of visitors to its flagship brands.
As illustrated in the chart, the median household incomes (HHIs) of both Gap and Old Navy’s captured markets rose in 2022 and 2023. Inflation and higher prices likely pushed lower-income consumers to trade down to alternatives, leaving Gap and Old Navy with relatively more affluent shoppers.
But since 2023 (for Gap) and 2024 (for Old Navy), HHIs in the chains’ trade areas have begun to decline slightly – suggesting the return of middle-income households. This subtle but meaningful shift indicates that revitalization efforts are reconnecting with the company’s historical core audience – middle-income shoppers who value style at an attainable price point.
Gap Inc.’s Q2 2025 performance provides encouraging evidence that its turnaround strategy is taking hold. Yet the company remains at a delicate juncture. Athleta and Banana Republic continue to lag behind their sister brands, and tariffs represent a significant headwind that could weigh on profitability.
Still, there is reason for optimism. If Gap Inc. can maintain its renewed connection with middle-income shoppers, refine its store strategy, and adapt effectively to the shifting tariff landscape, the momentum seen this quarter could help advance a sustained recovery.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
After steep mid-single-digit year-over-year declines in late 2024, Best Buy's (BBY) store traffic is beginning to stabilize. The retailer saw same-store visits fall just 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, with the decline narrowing further to 1.2% in Q2. Even more encouraging, several months since January have posted flat-to-positive foot traffic growth – a promising trend as Best Buy approaches the all-important holiday season, where it traditionally excels.
Best Buy’s recent traffic improvement likely stems from continued strength in its computing, mobile phone, and tablet offerings – segments with natural upgrade and replacement cycles that many consumers view as essentials. At the same time, foot traffic data indicates that the company’s online channel – which posted a 2.1% increase in U.S. digital sales last quarter – is helping drive quick in-store visits as customers take advantage of fast BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) options.
As illustrated in the graph below, short-duration visits (under 10 minutes) have consistently outperformed longer ones in 2025, underscoring the role of in-store pickup. In January, short visits jumped 5.3% YoY, likely boosted by Best Buy’s first-ever January Member Deals Days promotion. And in June, short visits increased 4.6% YoY, coinciding with the highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 launch, which featured special midnight store openings for eager customers.
While Best Buy trimmed its full-year outlook last quarter and has yet to see a true rebound in store traffic, the narrowing visit gap signals rising consumer engagement. With strengthened omnichannel execution and traffic tailwinds from product launches – as well as the a third-party marketplace set to launch next week – Best Buy may be poised to deliver a strong holiday season ahead.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, try Placer.ai's free tools.
The past few years have been challenging for many retail categories, particularly those reliant on discretionary spending. For top athletic retailers like DICK'S Sporting Goods, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and lululemon athletica, this has translated into sustained pressure on physical store visits.
Yet Q2 2025 visit results, when viewed against the backdrop of recent earnings reports, tell a more nuanced story. Rather than succumbing to headwinds, these brands are leveraging strategies from expansion to experiential retail – to weather the storm and position themselves for long-term growth.
DICK’S Sporting Goods provides a case study in mitigating traffic declines through higher ticket sizes, digital acceleration, and a pivot toward destination retail. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the company’s flagship chain declined -5.3% YoY and same-store visits fell -4.5%. Monthly performance was volatile: February and June saw the steepest visit gaps – driven partly by calendar effects (February vs. leap year, June 2025 with one fewer Saturday) and compounded by disruptive weather in both months, from winter storms in February to record heat and flooding in the Northeast in June. Meanwhile, as shown in the graph below, foot traffic in March, May, and July was just below 2024 levels.
Despite these ongoing foot traffic headwinds, DICK'S delivered impressive comp sales last quarter, driven by a 3.7% increase in average ticket size and a 0.8% uptick in total transaction – with e-commerce outpacing overall company growth. The company is also taking proactive steps to shore up its brick-and-mortar appeal, expanding its experiential House of Sport and Field House concepts to make its stores destinations in their own rights. And DICK’s recent Foot Locker acquisition appears to serve the same strategy, leaning into categories where in-person trial and discovery are central to purchase decisions.
Academy Sports + Outdoors also saw same-store visit declines in Q2 2025 (-5.1%), with similar calendar and weather-driven monthly variations. But thanks to strategic fleet expansion, overall quarterly traffic remained relatively stable (-0.9% YoY), with monthly visits even exceeding 2024 levels in May and then again in July.
Online sales (about 10% of the company’s business) also rose 10.2% during the company’s fiscal Q1 (ending May 3rd, 2025), helping offset in-store sales dips and contributing to a 3.7% YoY decline in comps. Academy’s balanced strategy of combining physical expansion with e-commerce strength is enabling the chain to maintain momentum even in a tougher environment.
While Academy widened its guidance range last quarter to reflect macroeconomic risks such as tariff impacts, its continued expansion signals confidence in its long-term trajectory.
Premium athletic retailer lululemon athletica also continues to face consistently lower same-store visits compared to 2024, with overall visits only moderately better.
Like its peers, the brand’s strength lies beyond foot traffic. Growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) and digital channels paired with higher transaction values allowed lululemon to deliver Americas comps of -2.0% YoY last quarter – a modest decline given traffic headwinds. At the same time, lululemon is expanding its fleet and accelerating international growth, adding further levers for resilience.
Still, the brand’s challenge is clear: to reignite in-store demand by ensuring its locations serve as premium destinations that justify return visits, especially as competition in athleisure intensifies.
Discretionary pullbacks are weighing on athletic retail in 2025. But a closer look at visit data reveals how leading players are adapting.
DICK’S is thriving via ticket growth and digital acceleration, while seeding future trips with its House of Sport/Field House rollout. Academy Sports kept overall visits nearly flat despite a 5.1% same-store traffic dip by leaning into strategic expansion – while also cultivating double-digit online growth. Lululemon has faced the steepest foot traffic drag, but higher transaction values and a bigger DTC mix helped keep domestic (Americas) comps only slightly negative last quarter as the company continues expanding its fleet and growing internationally.
Still, foot traffic remains a critical pillar of long-term growth. Heading into the holiday season, a key test will be whether these retailers can reverse recent visitation trends and draw more consumers back into stores.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
