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A common theme that spanned across the post-pandemic period of the retail industry has been resilience. Each time consumers throughout the United States faced adversity, they seemed to come back even stronger, often defying logic and expectations. Revenge spending often became the norm for many shoppers over the past six years, even as consumers accumulated mounting debts, utilized buy-now-pay-later services, and faced steep price increases due to tariffs and inflation. It has led to the question or if – or when – consumers might finally reach their breaking point.
The answer to that question might just be revealing itself to the retail industry in real time. In the face of rising prices across retail goods, services, and gasoline – particularly since the outbreak of the Iran War – consumers appear to be finally hitting the pause button on retail visitation in a stark way.
This coincides with another sobering statistic regarding consumer sentiment. According to the University of Michigan’s Monthly Survey of Consumers, which tracks consumer sentiment over time since the 1950’s, the May 2026 sentiment index fell to 44.8 – the lowest sentiment recorded since the inception of the survey. Consumers are feeling the pressure in all aspects of life, and their outlook is bleak on areas like the economy and their personal financial situations.
Despite the somewhat strong start to retail visitation in 2026, partially due to favorable comparable periods against early 2025, since mid-April there has been a noticeable change in retail traffic, both to discretionary and non-discretionary sectors. According to the same consumer sentiment index, April stood at 49.8, which was down 4 points from March.
While visitation to the Placer 100 Index, which includes 100 of largest retail chains across the U.S., and non-discretionary retail categories are still showing slight growth year-over-year, discretionary categories have declined. At the same time, it should be remembered that this period is being compared to last year’s pre-tariff rally among shoppers, which may also be impacting discretionary consumption.
Still, discretionary purchases are a logical place for the consumer to begin altering their consumption, especially for lower and middle-income shoppers who might be disproportionately impacted by rising fuel costs. Even with value-based options – like off-price retail – anything that is considered a “want” vs. a “need” are being reconsidered.
Waning consumer sentiment and increased economic uncertainty can both spur this change in behavior, and with sentiment at a record low, it’s clear that shoppers are trying to save instead of splurge right now.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
We recently attended the 2026 National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago, and the mood on the floor reflected an industry navigating a more complicated demand environment than it faced a year ago. With gas and grocery prices ticking higher over the past few months, consumers are once again tightening their belts and scrutinizing every dining decision, leaving operators to fight harder for share of stomach against a wider range of food retailers. Yet despite the headwinds, the show also surfaced plenty of bright spots: some chains are still driving traffic gains through new products, sharper value messaging, and operational improvements – from menu innovation to loyalty and tech-enabled efficiency – that are resonating with cautious diners. The takeaways below unpack where the pressure is greatest, who's breaking through anyway, and what it all signals for the back half of 2026.
Placer’s visitation trends reinforce this uncertain consumer environment. Below, we show weekly year-over-year visit trends for the QSR, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining categories. After a strong start to February – partly the result of lapping the macroeconomic uncertainty a year ago amid the initial tariff announcements – visitation trends for the QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments have generally fallen year-over-year (YoY) the past few months. Meanwhile, visits to fine dining restaurants have generally increased YoY, with affluent consumers feeling more confident about the macroeconomic environment given recent stock market highs.
Even as caution returned to the consumer, several chains showcased at and around the show stood out as clear traffic winners through Q1. In fast casual, CAVA continued to look like the category's runaway story, posting 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth driven by a striking 6.8% jump in guest traffic – outpacing peers including Chipotle, which has been working through a "Recipe for Growth" turnaround after stretches of negative comps.
In the burger and Mexican QSR space, Burger King delivered a 5.8% U.S. comp gain in Q1 – its biggest lift in years – fueled by family-friendly SpongeBob and Mandalorian tie-ins, while Taco Bell once again served as Yum! Brands' growth engine, leveraging sharp value pricing, steady menu innovation, and a deep digital loyalty program to broaden its appeal across income cohorts.
Coffee was also a frequent topic of conversation at the 2026 NRA Show. Dutch Bros has now strung together five-plus quarters of traffic-led same-store sales gains and is rolling out hot breakfast nationwide. Meanwhile, 7 Brew has emerged as the segment's hottest growth story – posting eye-popping traffic gains and on pace to add more than 400 units in 2026 alone – even as Starbucks continues to navigate a turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol.
Regional QSR burger favorites are pressing their advantage as well. In-N-Out is pushing into Tennessee, Washington, and other new markets, Whataburger continues to extend its footprint outside the Southeast, and Culver's is rolling out a series of menu, technology, and experience updates aimed at sustaining the cult-like loyalty that has long set these regional players apart. In fact, Culver’s might be the story of the QSR category right now, posting same-store visits that ranked among the upper echelon of QSR chains during the first quarter.
One of the most persistent themes at this year's show was that restaurants are no longer just competing with each other for share of stomach. Grocery stores, convenience chains, and warehouse clubs are rapidly upgrading their prepared food offerings, and in many cases capturing everyday meal occasions that restaurants once owned.
Grocery retailers are expanding prepared foods and meals-on-the-go and positioning them as a more affordable alternative to both home cooking and a drive-thru run, while c-stores like 7-Eleven, QuikTrip, and Wawa have invested heavily in made-to-order menus, full kitchens, and even branded QSR partnerships that increasingly rival traditional fast food. Warehouse clubs are pushing in the same direction – Sam's Club, for example, is rolling out fresh, ready-to-serve meals – leaving restaurant operators to defend their turf against a much broader, and noticeably hungrier, retail food ecosystem. YoY visit trends for the QSR category have underperformed other food-at-home categories like grocery stores and superstores over the past twelve months, underscoring this meaningful channel shift.
Taken together, the 2026 show painted a picture of an industry at an inflection point. The tailwinds of pent-up post-pandemic demand have given way to a more discerning consumer, a wider competitive set, and thinner margins for error. The chains that are winning share are doing so with a clear playbook: relevant menu innovation, disciplined value, sticky loyalty, and operational investments that make the experience faster and easier.
As we head into the back half of 2026, the gap between the operators executing on those fundamentals and those still searching for an answer is likely to widen further. The pressure on the industry is real, but so is the opportunity – and the brands willing to keep adapting to where the consumer is actually headed should remain well-positioned to come out ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated the 2026 box office and drove a massive spike in theater visits – but the real story goes beyond ticket sales.
Location analytics as well as audience survey data from The People's Platform reveal how the blockbuster reshaped who went to the movies, how they spent their time, and where they spent their money afterward. Families with children made up a larger share of theater audiences, with theater trade areas reflecting broader economic diversity than any Q1 2026 release. The film also fueled a surge in morning matinee attendance and contributed to shorter average theater dwell times thanks to its family-friendly runtime. And during the first two weeks of the movie's release, the data shows an increase in post-movie theater QSR visitation as families extended the outing beyond the screening itself.
For the full analysis, read the article here.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Iran conflict and resulting supply disruptions pushed average U.S. gas prices from $2.80 per gallon in early January to $4.49 by mid-May – a nearly 60% increase. And while consumers initially appeared willing to absorb higher fuel costs, recent traffic patterns suggest that sustained pressure at the pump may finally be impacting behavior.
When gas prices initially began rising in early March 2026, both retail and fuel demand remained relatively resilient. As the chart below shows, discretionary retail and gas station visits hovered near or above prior-year levels – indicating that consumers were largely maintaining their shopping and driving habits. Meanwhile, non-discretionary retail traffic continued to post modest year-over-year (YoY) gains, perhaps a product of ongoing macroeconomic instability and the overall strength of essentials-based retail.
The Easter calendar shift – with the holiday falling on April 20th in 2025 and April 5th in 2026 – even provided a temporary lift across all three categories, which may have masked some of the early effects of rising fuel prices. Non-discretionary retail saw the strongest Easter impact – visits rose 10.0% YoY during the week of March 30th, 2026 – as consumers prepared for holiday gatherings. Easter-related travel also appears to have supported gas station visits, which increased 1.3% and 2.2% YoY the weeks of March 30th and April 6th, respectively. Discretionary retail benefited from the calendar shift as well, with visits increasing 5.0% YoY the week of April 6th, and 5.8% YoY the week of April 13th – likely driven by a combination of post-Easter promotions and spring break travel.
Following a temporary Easter-related lift, location intelligence suggests that consumer behavior reached an inflection point in mid-April. The week of April 13th marked both the second consecutive week in which average gas prices exceeded $4.00 per gallon and the first week since the start of the supply disruption that gas station visits fell below year-ago levels. Since then, gas stations have experienced persistent YoY visitation declines, suggesting that consumers may be driving less or holding out between fill-ups.
Beginning the week of April 20th, discretionary retail traffic also slipped below prior-year levels – pointing to a potential pullback in non-essential shopping trips. Non-discretionary retail proved more resilient, remaining near or above the previous year’s levels from that week onward (a brief YoY visit gap the week of April 13th was likely due to the Easter calendar shift). And yet, even visits to essentials-based categories dipped below prior-year levels the week of May 18th, indicating that consumers may be shopping more deliberately or consolidating trips as transportation costs rise.
While consumers initially appeared willing to absorb higher fuel costs, recent foot traffic trends suggest that prolonged high prices at the pump have influenced fill-up and retail behavior across the board. However, if consumers continue to see some relief, that pressure could ease in the weeks ahead.
Want to stay informed on the latest consumer behavior trends? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Consumers aren’t shying away from testing out new hobbies, despite economic headwinds and changes in sentiment. Perhaps, it is actually a response to those factors that have consumers rushing to embrace new activities or socializing with others. Hobbies can act as a small indulgence for shoppers looking for ways to treat themselves at retail without a larger financial investment.
Typically small indulgences are often associated with categories like beauty or coffee chains, but hobby related retail traffic is also on the rise in areas like craft, books and paper. Consumers looking for activities and third places outside of their homes and offices to socialize have boosted games like Mahjong over the past year, which have prompted retailers to follow the trends and increase assortments that speak to these new interests.
Hobby related retailers have been steadily growing visits over the past year, particularly in the book and craft spaces.
Crafting activities like junk journaling, scrapbooking, needlepoint, and diamond art are all trending, leading to increased interest for chains like Michaels and Hobby Lobby to capture. Crafting retail has consolidated over the past few years with the loss of JOANN, but the demand has shifted to the remaining retailers.
The book category was a leader in 2025, and that momentum hasn’t slowed in 2026. The rise in book clubs as a socialization method has boosted the book industry as a hobby adjacent category. Barnes & Noble also has embraced retail as a third place through community events like storytimes and author events, as well as its cafe. Hobbies can be a catalyst for consumers to check out these retailers, but each of these chains has created reasons for shoppers to return frequently.
The paper category is one that hasn’t seen the same meteoric rise as crafts or books, but it is on the rebound. Paper Source has taken a few pages from its sister-brand Barnes & Noble on diversifying its assortment through areas like gifting and crafting. As consumers grapple with an increasingly digital existence, there does seem to still be a growing affinity for analogue activities and communication including invitations and thank-you notes. Retailers like Paper Source represent how small indulgences can show up for consumers in 2026; even with a smaller price tag, finding joy at retail is unmatched.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Just a few months after Allbirds announced it was pivoting to AI, another DTC darling has taken an unexpected turn. Everlane – the upscale, "radical transparency" sustainability brand – has just been bought by ultra-low-price fast-fashion giant Shein for a reported $100 million.
Much of the coverage has framed the deal as Shein buying a sustainability halo to shore up its credibility in the American market. But location analytics point to a more tangible, often overlooked, asset – direct access, through Everlane's brick-and-mortar footprint, to the high-income, urban consumers Shein has long coveted.
Everlane’s stores are concentrated in affluent neighborhoods. Over the past twelve months, the brand’s potential market posted a median household income (HHI) of $127.7K – 46.3% above the nationwide baseline and a full $39.5K higher than the broader traditional apparel segment.
But even within these wealthy trade areas, Everlane disproportionately attracts the highest-income consumers. During the analyzed period, its captured market registered a median HHI of $142.3K – 11.5% above the brand’s already-affluent trade area. Other traditional apparel chains, by contrast, tend to attract audiences that more closely mirror the demographics of their surrounding markets.
For Shein, the striking gap between Everlane’s captured and potential markets is a signal of the brand’s durable equity: Despite its recent struggles, Everlane still demonstrates a powerful ability to attract highly desirable consumers beyond what would be expected from its physical footprint alone.
Everlane's audience also lines up neatly with the hip, urban demographic Shein has been trying to reach. "Educated Urbanites" – young, well-educated singles in dense urban areas working relatively high-paying jobs – account for a remarkable 40.8% of Everlane's captured market, against just 3.6% nationwide. The brand also over-indexes on "Ultra Wealthy Families," at 18.4% of its captured audience versus a traditional apparel benchmark of 8.7%.
That profile mirrors the consumer Shein has pursued through temporary pop-ups – including in luxury malls – across major U.S. cities.
The sustainability narrative may dominate the headlines, but the strategic logic behind Shein’s Everlane acquisition also runs through the customer base itself.
For Shein, Everlane represents a shortcut into a consumer segment it has sought to penetrate more effectively: affluent, urban, brand-conscious shoppers who still value trend relevance. And for Everlane, that same demographic strength helped transform a distressed sale into a strategic acquisition target – while giving Shein a strong incentive to preserve the brand’s positioning going forward.
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
