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Bath & Body Works emerged as a surprise retail winner in February 2025’s Placer 100 roundup, when overall visits to the chain jumped by 13.7% YoY in conjunction with its Disney-themed fragrance release. And the chain is maintaining its relevance in the face of declining discretionary spending and tighter consumer budgets through a multi-pronged approach, including store expansions, a TikTok presence, and partnerships with influencers.
Still, traffic to the chain reflects the impact of softened discretionary spending. Although overall traffic increased 3.5% in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024, thanks in part to the chain's strategic expansion, same-store visits for the quarter fell slightly, as seen in the chart below. But foot traffic rebounded dramatically in July, when its semi-annual sale sent same-store visits up by 12.7% and overall visits up by 17.5%, highlighting how compelling promotions – especially when consumer budgets are tight – can lead to foot traffic spikes.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
The beauty industry continues to flourish, with external factors like the rise of #BeautyTok, the influence of online creators, and a steady stream of new products driving interest. Within this landscape, Ulta (ULTA) has been driving strong sales, capitalizing on continued interest in beauty to fuel this growth.
Following major gains through the pandemic years and beyond, Ulta's visits have flattened slightly. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the chain grew by 1.4% year over year (YoY), likely thanks to store openings (Ulta opened 62 new stores between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025), as same-store visits declined by 1.1% in the same period.
Despite softer same-store foot traffic as seen in the chart below, Ulta delivered strong comp sales growth of 2.9% last quarter, driven by a 2.3% rise in average ticket size and a 10.0% increase in e-commerce sales. Now, the chain seems to be entering a new phase of its story, choosing to wind down its Target partnership in favor of its Ulta Beauty Unleashed growth plan.
As Ulta’s growth momentum slows, its decision not to renew its six-year partnership with Target may be a strategic move to direct traffic to its growing store fleet.
The partnership launched in 2021 with the goals of making prestige beauty more accessible to Target shoppers while helping Ulta "deepen loyalty with existing guests and introduce Ulta Beauty to new guests." And, at least for Ulta, the strategy seems to have worked – the share of Target shoppers also visiting Ulta stores has increased significantly since the launch, as seen in the chart below. This suggests that the Ulta shop-in-shops helped the chain acquire new customers through the brand exposure generated by the partnership.
But the data also suggests that the benefits to Ulta may be diminishing. Since 2023, the share of Target shoppers also visiting Ulta appears to have plateaued around 30%, indicating that the shop-in-shops are no longer driving meaningful traffic to stand-alone Ulta stores. Meanwhile, Ulta now has a larger store fleet than it did in 2021 (the company opened approximately 150 new stores between Q2 2021 and Q1 2025). This expansion likely also contributed to increased cross-visitation while reducing the partnership's value proposition, as beauty consumers now have more opportunities to visit standalone Ulta stores. With the partnership's customer acquisition benefits plateauing and Ulta's expanded footprint reducing reliance on Target's locations, ending the collaboration appears to be a logical step toward maximizing traffic to Ulta's own stores.
Now, both brands have new opportunities to focus on their relative strengths. For Ulta, that means building out its Ulta Beauty Unleashed program, which will see the brand focus on improving store operations, enhancing the digital experience, and moving into new markets. Meanwhile, incoming Target CEO Michael Fiddelke plans to take the company back to its roots, focusing on its own merchandise and using technology to improve efficiency.
As Ulta transitions away from its Target partnership and focuses on its Ulta Beauty Unleashed growth plan, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on expanding store operations, enhanced digital experiences, and entry into new markets.
For the latest data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Dollar General and Dollar Tree have grown significantly in recent years, upending the competitive dynamics in the wider retail landscape. Can these chains continue to grow? Or are they beginning to reach their saturation point? We dove into the data to find out.
Dollar Tree recently completed the sale of the Family Dollar brand, allowing management to dedicate its efforts to "Dollar Tree's long-term growth, profitability and returns on capital."
The strategic refocus appears to be already paying off. As the chart below shows, year-over-year (YoY) overall and same-store visits to the chain have surged in recent months, indicating strong organic performance amplified by fleet expansion.
Meanwhile, Dollar General is also experiencing traffic growth – though momentum has cooled slightly. After posting a robust 12.2% visit increase between July 2023 and July 2024, growth has decelerated to 2.9% year-over-year in July 2025.
Still, although Dollar General's growth has slowed while Dollar Tree's growth has picked up, Dollar General remains the significantly larger chain. In H1 2025, 58.7% of combined visits to the two retailers went to Dollar General, compared to 41.3% of visits to Dollar Tree. And just because Dollar General's growth has slowed somewhat does not mean that the company has reached its saturation point.
Even though both chains have been growing for several years, geographic data reveals that domestic expansion opportunities for both retailers still exist.
The map below shows the share of combined visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree going to each chain by DMA. Dollar Tree receives a majority of visits in the yellow DMAs, which are heavily concentrated in the Western United States. In contrast, Dollar General receives the majority of visits in the purple DMAs which cover most of the Midwest and South.
This distinct geographic segmentation indicates that rather than competing head-to-head, each chain has built regional strongholds – creating significant white space opportunities for cross-regional expansion. Dollar Tree's renewed focus and accelerating traffic position it well to build up its position in the South and Midwest – Dollar General's traditional markets. Conversely, Dollar General's established operational scale and proven rural market penetration strategy could drive significant growth for the chain in Dollar Tree's Western strongholds.
Dollar Tree’s sharpened focus and accelerating traffic growth signal strong long-term potential, while Dollar General’s scale ensures it remains a formidable player despite cooling momentum. With distinct geographic strongholds, both retailers still have significant white space for expansion – setting the stage for continued growth rather than saturation.
For the most up-to-date superstore visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.
Value-oriented retailers Ollie's Bargain Market (OLLI) and Five Below (FIVE) continue their impressive growth trajectory, with Q2 2025 visits surging 18.3% and 14.3% year-over-year, respectively.
Both chains are aggressively expanding their footprints – Ollie's acquired around 40 Big Lots leases and opened 25 of its projected 75 new stores by May 2025, while Five Below plans to add 150 locations this year after opening hundreds in 2024. Critically, the expansions are not coming at the expense of existing stores. Same-store visits grew 9.4% at Ollie's and 5.9% at Five Below, meaning individual locations are actually busier now than last year – despite the larger fleet size.
These positive traffic trends underscore the strong consumer appetite for value-oriented discretionary retail in today's economic environment and highlight the growth potential of the two chains.
Five Below and Ollie's positive visit trends demonstrate that growth doesn't have to be zero-sum. Rather than cannibalizing each other's traffic, both chains are successfully growing in parallel, as their increased store presence and busier locations expand the overall value-oriented discretionary retail market.
This growth can also be seen from the cross-visitation data in the chart below. H1 2025 saw the largest share of Ollie's shoppers visiting Five Below and the largest share of Five Below shoppers visiting Ollie's in recent years. (The cross-visitation from Ollie's to Five Below was likely significantly higher than the reverse due to Five Below's much larger physical footprint.)
This rising cross-visitation between the two chains validates the expanding market opportunity for value-oriented discretionary retail, as consumers increasingly embrace multiple value-oriented shopping destinations to meet their needs.
The strong performance of Five Below and Ollie's in Q2 2025 demonstrates the resilience and growth potential of the discount retail sector during challenging economic times.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Gap Inc. is showing real signs of progress in its turnaround efforts. Since CEO Richard Dickson took the helm in August 2023, the company has been working to revitalize its portfolio of brands – and the latest foot traffic data confirms that strategy is beginning to deliver results.
In Q2 2025, visits to the company’s four banners—Old Navy, Gap, Athleta, and Banana Republic—rose 3.6% year over year (YoY), outperforming the broader apparel category (excluding department stores and off-price retailers), which saw traffic decline 2.2%.
Focusing on the company’s two largest and strongest performers, Old Navy led with a 4.8% increase in overall foot traffic and a 4.5% gain in same-store visits. The namesake Gap brand also posted growth despite a smaller U.S. store base. Notably, overall visits to Gap slightly outpaced same-store sales, signaling that store closures are effectively removing underperformers, while new locations are resonating with shoppers.
Turning to monthly foot traffic trends, both Old Navy and Gap posted significant year-over-year visit gains in April and May 2025 before seeing visitation taper in June and July.
The two chains’ springtime surge may be partially attributed to tariff pull-forward. Following the announcement of new tariffs in early April, many consumers appear to have accelerated purchases to avoid anticipated price increases. This pull-forward effect likely shifted demand into April and May, inflating growth in the short term but contributing to softer traffic in June and July. Memorial Day sales and campaigns like the company’s “Feels Like Gap” campaign may have also resonated with consumers.
Another encouraging sign for the company lies in the shifting income profiles of visitors to its flagship brands.
As illustrated in the chart, the median household incomes (HHIs) of both Gap and Old Navy’s captured markets rose in 2022 and 2023. Inflation and higher prices likely pushed lower-income consumers to trade down to alternatives, leaving Gap and Old Navy with relatively more affluent shoppers.
But since 2023 (for Gap) and 2024 (for Old Navy), HHIs in the chains’ trade areas have begun to decline slightly – suggesting the return of middle-income households. This subtle but meaningful shift indicates that revitalization efforts are reconnecting with the company’s historical core audience – middle-income shoppers who value style at an attainable price point.
Gap Inc.’s Q2 2025 performance provides encouraging evidence that its turnaround strategy is taking hold. Yet the company remains at a delicate juncture. Athleta and Banana Republic continue to lag behind their sister brands, and tariffs represent a significant headwind that could weigh on profitability.
Still, there is reason for optimism. If Gap Inc. can maintain its renewed connection with middle-income shoppers, refine its store strategy, and adapt effectively to the shifting tariff landscape, the momentum seen this quarter could help advance a sustained recovery.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
After steep mid-single-digit year-over-year declines in late 2024, Best Buy's (BBY) store traffic is beginning to stabilize. The retailer saw same-store visits fall just 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, with the decline narrowing further to 1.2% in Q2. Even more encouraging, several months since January have posted flat-to-positive foot traffic growth – a promising trend as Best Buy approaches the all-important holiday season, where it traditionally excels.
Best Buy’s recent traffic improvement likely stems from continued strength in its computing, mobile phone, and tablet offerings – segments with natural upgrade and replacement cycles that many consumers view as essentials. At the same time, foot traffic data indicates that the company’s online channel – which posted a 2.1% increase in U.S. digital sales last quarter – is helping drive quick in-store visits as customers take advantage of fast BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) options.
As illustrated in the graph below, short-duration visits (under 10 minutes) have consistently outperformed longer ones in 2025, underscoring the role of in-store pickup. In January, short visits jumped 5.3% YoY, likely boosted by Best Buy’s first-ever January Member Deals Days promotion. And in June, short visits increased 4.6% YoY, coinciding with the highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 launch, which featured special midnight store openings for eager customers.
While Best Buy trimmed its full-year outlook last quarter and has yet to see a true rebound in store traffic, the narrowing visit gap signals rising consumer engagement. With strengthened omnichannel execution and traffic tailwinds from product launches – as well as the a third-party marketplace set to launch next week – Best Buy may be poised to deliver a strong holiday season ahead.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, try Placer.ai's free tools.
Return-to-office (RTO) trends have been closely watched over the past few years, with relevant stakeholders trying to puzzle out the impact remote and hybrid work have had on business operations and worker performance. And while visits to office buildings, overall, remain below pre-pandemic levels, office recovery varies from city to city – reflecting the complex and nuanced nature of regional economic trends, workforce preferences, and industry-specific needs.
This white paper harnesses location analytics to explore office recovery in the country’s second-largest economy – Los Angeles. The first part of the report is based on an analysis of foot traffic data from Placer.ai’s Los Angeles Office Index – an index comprising 100 office buildings in LA (including several in the greater metro area). The second part of the report broadens the lens to analyze visits by local employees to points of interest (POIs) corresponding to four major LA-area office districts: Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City. The white paper examines the impact that return-to-work mandates have had on visits to office buildings, discovers which demographic groups are driving the RTO, and explores the connection between commute time and return-to-office rates.
The return to office in Los Angeles has consistently lagged behind other major cities, underperforming nationwide recovery levels since the pandemic ground in-office work to a virtual halt. Still, the city’s office buildings are seeing a steady increase in visits, with foot traffic tending to spike at the beginning of each year. This indicates that even though office visits in LA are still below national averages, they are on a steady growth trajectory – a promising sign for stakeholders in the city.
A closer examination of Los Angeles office buildings also shows that despite the overall lag, some top-performing buildings in the LA metro area are defying the odds. Visits to the 20 local office buildings with the narrowest Q2 2024 post-COVID visit gaps were down just 8.7% in June 2024 compared to January 2019 – significantly outperforming the nationwide average.
So while overall office recovery in the city is still behind nationwide trends, these top-performing buildings indicate an optimistic outlook for the city’s office spaces.
Diving into the demographics of visitors to LA’s top-performing office buildings reveals an important insight: these buildings are attracting younger workers. This cohort has shown a stronger preference for in-person work compared to their older colleagues.
Analyzing the buildings’ captured markets with psychographics from AGS: Panorama reveals that these buildings are attracting visitors from areas with larger shares of "Emerging Leaders" and "Young Coastal Technocrats" than the broader metro area.
"Emerging Leaders'' – upper-middle-class professionals in early stages of their careers – make up 20.3% of households in the trade areas feeding visits to these top-performing buildings, compared to 14.9% in the broader LA CBSA. Similarly, "Young Coastal Technocrats," young and highly educated professionals in tech and professional services, account for 14.7% of households driving visits to the top-performing buildings, compared to only 12.1% in the broader area.
The trend suggests that companies in these high-performing office buildings employ many early-career professionals eager to accelerate their careers and work in-person with colleagues and mentors. This is a positive sign for the future of the office market in the LA metro area, indicating that it is attractive to key demographic groups that are likely to drive future growth and innovation.
Over the past few years, the debate regarding return-to-office mandates has been a heated one. Will employees follow return-to-office requirements? Can companies enforce the return to office after offering remote and hybrid work options? Recent location analytics data suggests that, at least in the Los Angeles metro area, some return-to-office mandates have been effective.
Three major tech companies – Activision Blizzard, TikTok, and SNAP Inc. – recently made their return-to-office policies stricter. Activision mandated a full return to the office in January 2024. TikTok has also intensified its return-to-office policy while seeking to expand its office presence in the greater Los Angeles area. And SNAP Inc. required employees to return to the office earlier this year as a condition of continued employment.
Visitation patterns at each of these companies' respective headquarters suggest that their policies have directly impacted visit frequency. Since the beginning of the year, the share of repeat office visits (defined as two or more visits per week) has increased for all three locations. Activision saw its share of repeat office visits grow from 52.1% in H1 2023 to 61.4% in the same period of 2024. TikTok’s repeat visits grew from 49.5% to 61.0%, and SNAP’s repeat visits increased from 36.6% to 42.8%.
These numbers highlight how return-to-office policies can lead to noticeable changes in office visit patterns and offer a blueprint to other businesses looking to foster a stronger in-office workforce.
Los Angeles is the second-largest metro area in the country, with several distinct business districts across its sprawling landscape. And a closer look at four major office hubs in the greater LA area – Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City – highlights how the office recovery can vary, not just by city or demographic, but on a neighborhood level.
Weekday visits by local employees to all four analyzed business districts have rebounded significantly since 2020 – though each area has followed its own particular trajectory.
Culver City, home to major businesses including Sony Pictures and Disney Digital Network, saw the least pronounced drop in employee visits during the early days of the pandemic. And in Q2 2024, weekday visits by local workers were down just 18.4% compared to Q1 2019.
Century City, on the other hand, saw the most marked drop in local employee foot traffic as the pandemic set in. But the district’s recovery trajectory has also been the most dramatic – with a Q2 2024 visit gap of just 28.5%, smaller than Downtown LA’s 29.7% visit gap. Perhaps capitalizing on this momentum, Century City is expanding its business district with the addition of a major new office building, set to be completed in 2026 and serve as the headquarters for Creative Artists Agency. Santa Monica, for its part, finished off Q2 2024 with a 23.3% visit gap.
Century City stands out within the Los Angeles metropolitan area for its dramatic decline and subsequent resurgence in local employee foot traffic. And looking at another metric of office recovery – employee commute distance – further underscores the district’s remarkable comeback.
The share of employees commuting to Century City from three to seven miles away has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels – suggesting a normalization of commuting patterns by local workers living in the area. In H1 2019, 33.5% of workers in Century City commuted between 3 and 7 miles to work; in 2022, that number had dropped to 29.8%. But by 2024, the share of visitors making that commute had grown to 32.5% – much closer to pre-COVID numbers.
Similarly, the region’s trade area size, which had contracted significantly in the wake of the pandemic, bounced back significantly in 2024. This serves as another indication of Century City’s rebound, cementing Century City’s status as a key business hub within the Los Angeles metropolitan area.
Five years after the upheaval caused by the pandemic, office spaces are still changing. Although the Los Angeles area has taken longer to recover than other major cities, analyzing local visitation data shows significant potential for the city’s business areas. With young employees leading the return-to-office charge, the city is poised to keep driving its strong economy and adjust to an evolving office environment.
Retail media networks (RMNs) have cemented their roles as the future – and present – of advertising. These networks enable advertisers to promote products and services through a retailer’s online properties and physical stores, when consumers are close to the point-of-purchase and primed to buy.
Today, we take a closer look at two newcomers to the retail media space: Costco Wholesale and Wawa. Both chains have an online presence – but both also excel at in-store experiences, offering unique opportunities for consumer engagement and exposure to new products.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key advantages Costco and Wawa bring to the retail media table – and examine how the retailers’ physical reach can best be leveraged to help advertising partners find new audiences.
Wawa and Costco, the latest additions to the growing number of companies with retail media networks, exhibit significant advertising potential. Both brands boast a wide reach and diverse customer base, and both have access to troves of customer data through membership and loyalty programs.
Foot traffic data confirms the robust offline positioning of the two retailers. In Q1 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to Costco and Wawa increased 9.5% and 7.5% respectively – showing that their in-store engagement is on a growth trajectory.
And since consumers tend to spend a lot more time in-store than they do on retailers’ websites, Costco’s and Wawa’s strong brick-and-mortar growth positions them especially well to help advertisers reach new customers. In Q1 2024, the average visits to Costco’s and Wawa’s physical stores lasted 37.4 and 11.4 minutes respectively – compared to just 6.7 and 4.6 minutes for the chains’ websites. These longer in-store dwell times can be harnessed to maximize ad exposure and offer partners more extended opportunities for meaningful interactions with customers. Partners can also analyze the behavior and preferences of the two chains’ growing visitor bases to craft targeted online campaigns.
Costco’s retail media network will tap into the on- and offline shopping habits of its staggering 74.5 million members to inform targeted advertising by partners. And the retailer’s tremendous reach offers a significant opportunity to engage customers in-store.
But while Costco is dominant in some areas of the country, other markets are led by competitors like Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. And advertisers looking to choose between competing RMNs or hone in on the areas where Costco is strongest can analyze Costco's performance and visit share – on a local or national level – to determine where to focus their efforts.
An analysis of the share of visits to wholesalers across the country reveals that Costco is the dominant wholesale membership club in much of the Western United States. But Costco also captures the largest share of wholesale club visits in many other major population centers, including important markets like New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and San Antonio. Costco’s widespread brick-and-mortar dominance offers prospective advertising partners a significant opportunity to connect with regional audiences in a wide array of key markets.
Another one of Costco’s key advantages as a retail media provider lies in its highly loyal and engaged audience. In May 2024, a whopping 41.4% of Costco’s visitors frequented the club at least twice during the month – compared to 36.6% for Sam’s Club and 36.0% for BJ’s Wholesale.
Moreover, Costco led in average visit duration compared to its competitors. In May 2024, customers spent an average of 37.1 minutes at Costco – surpassing even the impressive dwell times at Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
YoY visits per location to Costco, too, were the highest of the analyzed wholesalers, all three of which saw YoY increases. These metrics further establish the wholesaler’s position as an effective retail media provider.
Even when foot traffic doesn't show a brand’s clear regional dominance, location analytics can reveal other metrics that signal its unique potential. Take the Richmond-Petersburg, VA, designated market area (DMA), for example. In May 2024, BJ’s Wholesale Club led the DMA with 41.2% of wholesale club visits, while Costco was a close second with 37.3% of visits.
But despite BJ’s lead in visit share, Costco's Richmond audience was more affluent. Costco's visitors came from trade areas with a median household income (HHI) of $93.2K/year, compared to $73.1K/year for Sam’s Club and $89.5K/year for BJ’s. Additionally, Costco drew a higher share of weekday visits than its counterparts.
Analyzing shopper habits and preferences across chains on a local level can provide crucial context for strategists working on media campaigns. Advertisers can partner with the brands most likely to attract consumers interested in their offerings, and identify where – and when – to focus their advertising efforts.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, are emerging as destinations in and of themselves – and their rising popularity among a wider-than-ever swath of consumers opens up significant opportunities in the retail advertising space.
Wawa is a relative newcomer to the world of retail media, after other c-stores like 7-Eleven and Casey’s launched their networks in 2022 and 2023. But despite coming a bit late to the party, the potential for Wawa’s Goose Media Network is significant – thanks to a cadre of highly loyal visitors who enjoy the physical shopping experience the c-store chain offers.
In May 2024, Wawa’s share of loyal visitors (defined as those who visited the chain at least twice in a month) was 60.1%. In contrast, other leading c-store chains operating in Wawa’s market area – QuickTrip and 7-Eleven, for example – saw loyalty rates of 56.0% and 47.9%, respectively, for the same period.
Additionally, Wawa visitors browsed the aisles longer than those at other convenience retailers. In May 2024, 39.9% of Wawa visitors stayed in-store for 10 minutes or longer, compared to 29.6% at QuickTrip and 25.7% at 7-Eleven.
Wawa's loyal customer base and longer visit durations make it a strong contender in the retail media space. By harnessing this high level of customer engagement, Wawa can draw in advertisers and develop targeted marketing strategies that resonate with its dedicated shoppers.
Wawa has been on an expansion roll over the past few years, with plans to open at least 280 stores over the next decade in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. The chain has also been steadily increasing its footprint in Florida – between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa grew from 167 Sunshine State locations to 280, with more to come.
And analyzing changes in Wawa’s visit share in one of Florida’s biggest markets – the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA – shows how successful the chain’s local expansion has been. Between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa more than doubled its category-wide visit share in the Miami area (i.e. the portion of total c-store visits in the DMA going to Wawa) – from 19.0% to nearly 40.0%.
A look at changes in Wawa’s Miami-Ft. Lauderdale trade area shows that the chain’s growing visit share has been driven by an expanding market and an increasingly diverse audience.
In April 2019, there were some 55 zip code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA from which Wawa drew at least 3,000 visits per month. By April 2021, this figure grew to 96 – and by April 2024, it reached 129.
Over the same period, the share of “Family Union” households in Wawa’s local captured market – defined by the Experian: Mosaic dataset as families comprised of middle-income, blue collar workers – nearly doubled, growing from 7.4% in April 2019 to 14.4% in April 2024.
Retail media networks that make it easier to introduce shoppers to products and brands that are closely aligned with their preferences and habits offer a win-win-win for retailers, advertisers, and consumers alike. And Costco and Wawa are extremely well-positioned to make the most of this opportunity.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
