Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a account? Log In

What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023

Ethan Chernofsky
June 28, 2023
What To Expect From Prime Day and July Sales Events in 2023

With Amazon’s Prime Day, Target Deal Days, Best Buy’s Black Friday in July, and Walmart’s Plus Week all coming up – and Back to School around the corner – we dove into the retail foot traffic data to see what we can expect from these summer sales events. 

Retail Overview at the (Almost) Halfway Point

January 2023 started the year off strong – but over the past several months, retail foot traffic has lagged behind previous years as the ongoing inflation continues to strain consumer budgets. Still, holidays have maintained their potential to drive traffic spikes. 

Although the first half of the year tends to be somewhat devoid of major sales events, the data reveals that special occasions drove consumers to stores.  Even holidays not traditionally associated with discounts – Valentine’s Day, Easter, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, and even St. Patrick’s Day – brought a spike in retail visits. Meanwhile, Memorial Day – typically the first major sales event of the year – saw a relatively subdued increase.

This could indicate that 2023 consumers are being exceptionally intentional with their spending, and visiting stores to buy gifts, chocolates, and other specific items for particular occasions instead of browsing the sales aisles for impulse buys. At the same time, the gap between previous years’ retail foot traffic levels and 2023 visits has narrowed in recent weeks – which may signal that consumers are tiring of their shopping discipline and gearing up to hit the stores. And the retail foot traffic spikes seen on the major and minor holidays during the first half of 2023 could also mean that newly disciplined shoppers are looking for an excuse to engage in some retail therapy. 

What does this mean for Prime Day and other promotional events coming up in July? Many consumers have delayed big-ticket items in recent months due to high interest rates and the larger macroeconomic situation, and these shoppers may use the July sales as opportunities to purchase these items at a discount. And with Back to School coming up, parents are likely to take advantage of the markdowns to stock up on children’s clothing and school supplies. But shoppers may also be more careful with their spending than in previous years and make fewer expensive impulse purchases. And with some consumers looking for a reason to shop without breaking the bank, more affordable categories such as apparel and beauty – which are not typical major Prime Day winners – may receive a significant boost. 

Diving into Key Retail Categories

Analyzing weekly retail visits to key categories also suggests that beauty and apparel are likely to do quite well during the upcoming sales events. Of the nine sectors analyzed, the Beauty and Self Care category is the only one to have seen positive year-over-year (YoY) weekly visits over the past seven weeks. Apparel (Excluding Department Stores) has also seen its YoY visit gap shrink, with visits the week of June 12-18 up 1.8%. 

Pet Stores & Services, Office Supplies, and Home Improvement have all seen their YoY visit gaps hover around 8%, which could mean that consumers are visiting brick-and-mortar outlets in these categories to make essential purchases but holding off on the more discretionary items. But the right discount may convince some shoppers to upgrade their grill or splurge on a new toy for their pet.

The more purely discretionary categories – Recreational & Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Gifts & Crafts, Electronics, and Furniture & Home Furnishings – all started May 2023 with significant YoY visit gaps that progressively narrowed over the past seven weeks. And while some of the shrinking visit gaps may be due to Father’s Day – which fell over the week of June 12-18 – the positive trend may also indicate that consumers are slowly beginning to spend on non-essentials once again. This could bode well for Prime Day, July 4th, and other upcoming sales events, as more and more consumers may be looking for an excuse to scratch the shopping itch and splurge on some low-cost discretionary items. 

How Are Prime Day’s Leading Offline Competitors Positioned? 

Amazon’s Prime Day – on July 11 and 12 this year – takes place mostly online, although the company’s network of brick-and-mortar stores will also offer discounts. But plenty of other brands with massive offline store fleets will also run their promotional event around the same time. Specifically, Walmart Plus Week from July 10 to 13, Target’s Circle Week from July 9 to 15, and Best Buy’s Black Friday in July – from July 10 to 12 – will all run parallel to Amazon’s Prime Day. 

Diving into the change in weekly visits since the first full week of May for these three brands indicates that Best Buy is likely to see an especially strong visit boost this July. The company saw its foot traffic spike the week of June 12-28, likely due to its Father’s Day sale. This indicates that shoppers are receptive to the brand’s promotions and bodes well for the retailer’s upcoming Black Friday in July event. Walmart has also seen strong visitation trends recently – perhaps thanks to its reputation for particularly low prices – and may well attract an even greater number of shoppers during its discount event. Meanwhile, Target’s baseline growth has been more muted – but that is heavily related to their high starting point, and with today’s consumers on the hunt for bargains, Target's Circle Week can be expected to drive traffic back to the company’s stores. 

The first half of 2023 has brought its fair challenges to the retail space. But as retailers begin busting out the big discounts in July, the tide may be turning ahead of a critical Back to School period. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Text Link
Text Link
Text Link
Checking in With Discount & Dollar Stores
Peeking Behind The Curtain: Movie Theaters in 2023 and Beyond
Diving Into Brick-and-Mortar Eyewear
Getting Into Gear: Exploring The Auto Part Industry
Recapping Valentine’s Day 2024 Foot Traffic Trends
Fitness: A Strong Start to 2024
Dutch Bros. Continues To Percolate Visits
Super Bowl 2024:’s Postgame Foot Traffic Analysis
CAVA & sweetgreen Are On the Rise
Hats Off For Off-Price
Who Is Shopping at Malls?
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains Office Index: Looking Back at 2023
Recapping RBI & Yum! Brands’ 2023 Foot Traffic Performance White Paper Recap – January 2024
Who Shops at Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters?
Three Taco Chains to Watch in 2024
Starbucks and Dunkin’: 2023 in Four Data Points
Who Visits CVS and Walgreens?
Fashionably Frugal: Apparel in 2023
Catching Up With Fast Food
The Grocery Sector in 2023: An End-of-Year Recap
3 Mall & Shopping Center Trends for 2024
Bakery Chains Rising To The Top and Esri Partner to Deliver Geospatial Analytics
Tampa Tourism Trends
Going For The Green: The Changing Dynamics Of Country Clubs
Christmas Day Dining Recap
Major Urban Shopping Districts – Holiday Season Recap Office Index: December 2023 Recap
Recapping the 2023 Holiday Shopping Season White Paper Recap – December 2023
7 Retail & Dining Segments to Watch in 2024
Diving Into Holiday Season Favorites
Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve: A Winning Combination
3 Budget Grocery Chains Finishing 2023 On a High Note
Making It In America: International Chicken Chains Bring The Heat
Domestic Tourism at a Glance: A Q3 2023 Roundup
Five Pizza Chains On The Rise
Jewelry Brands Taking Advantage of the DTC Opportunity
Secondhand News: Kids' Thrift Shops
Recapping 2023’s Dining M&As
MetLife Stadium Kicks Off Football Season Office Index: November 2023 Recap
Small Coffee Chains Brewing Big Success White Paper Recap – November 2023
Thanksgiving Travel 2023 Recap
Checking in With Nike and Lululemon
Black Friday 2023 Retail Recap
Starbucks’ 2023 Holiday Menu & Red Cup Day Performance
Turkey Wednesday 2023
Who Attended the 2023 Pickleball Championship? 
Three Surprising Holiday Shopping Trends
What’s in Store for Ulta Beauty This Holiday Season?
Best Buy and Department Stores: A Holiday Deep Dive
Discount & Dollar Stores: Strength Toward The End of the Year
The State of Off-Price Retail: Discounts Seal The Deal
Placer Mall Index Recap: October 2023 Office Index: October 2023 Recap
Retail Corridors Ahead of the 2023 Holiday Season
California, Here Gap Comes
Checking in With Home Improvement
Getting Into the Glasses Game: Warby Parker Takes Over
Fitness Positioned for a Strong 2023 Finish
White Paper Recap: October 2023
Coffee Giants Brewing Up Business
Popeyes and Burger King Lead the Way
Diving into Yum!
Looking Ahead to Black Friday 2023
Blockbusters Drive Movie Theater Comeback
Crocs and Boot Barn: Shoe-Ins for Success
McDonald’s and Chipotle's Winning Recipe
The State Of Steak: Checking in With Texas Roadhouse
Pleasant Pastimes: Pickleball Potential Proves Potent
Who’s Driving Downtown Manhattan’s Weekend Revival?
Diving into Downtown Manhattan Foot Traffic Trends
Rite Aid: Rightsizing Right
Major League Soccer: Its Die-Hard and Casual Fans
The Anchor Recap: September 2023 Office Index: September 2023 Recap
Placer Mall Index Recap: September 2023
September White Paper Recap
The Consumer Habits of College Students
JCPenney: Rightsizing and Revitalizing
Pent-Up Demand Ahead of October Sales Events
4 Strategies Retailers are Using to Drive Traffic to Their Venues
5 Key Regional Grocery Players Impressing in 2023
Upscale Kitchenware Trending Up
Costco Finds More Room for Growth
Four C-Store Chains Making an A-Grade
National Parks + Outdoor Summer Activities
Diving Into Darden: Summer 2023 Update
The Summer Event Effect
Messi: Massive in Miami
Looking Back on Back to School 2023
The Anchor Recap: August 2023 Office Index: August 2023 Recap