Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Post-Corona: Who Could Outperform?

by 
Ethan Chernofsky
 on 
April 7, 2020
Post-Corona: Who Could Outperform?

Coronavirus is continuing to make its impact felt across the United States. Yet, even with new peaks in cases, there is a strong hope that with effective social distancing in place, the virus’s impact could soon begin to dissipate. But the environment we return to will not be the same as it was when the crisis began. Beyond a new appreciation for the day-to-day normal, the wider economic effect will assuredly be significant.

While many industries will likely continue to feel the impact of slowed international tourism and a rising period of economic uncertainty, there are industries positioned to rebound quickly. 

In the first of a series of posts that will touch on industries that could rebound effectively, we turn to fitness and home improvement.

Fitness Centers

While gyms and fitness centers were hit hard and quickly, there are a handful of data points that suggest this is a sector that could rebound quickly. Firstly, when we look at other areas that have been hit with crises in the last few years, one of the first examples is Hurricane Harvey. The storm-battered Houston, TX., resulting in closed gyms and incredibly low visits. However, not only did these gyms bounce back quickly, they were able to buck normal visitation trends. Where visits normally decrease substantially after the first quarter of each year, the weeklong hiatus seemed to spur a return to fitness for visitors. 

Considering the long periods of being stuck at home driven by social distancing, there is a high potential for a comeback for gyms once again.

A second factor that plays into the potential rebound is the ‘stronger than expected’ performance of retailers like Dick’s Sporting Goods. Where most retailers saw significant downturn beginning late February, Dick’s saw visits that were 147.8% above the baseline for the last Saturday of February, when measuring the period between January 2019 through March 23rd 2020. This marked the highest performance for any day outside of the highly trafficked holiday period. That was until the next Saturday when visits rose 152.4% above the baseline, setting a new high point. 

The fact that visits rose heading into this period indicates a desire to stock up on sports-related gear to help get through a long period at home. While products like baseball gloves for kids won’t need to be replenished, the patterns do indicate a strong inclination to staying active, something that could potentially give fitness centers a new peak in May or June.

DIY

With many expecting a period of economic uncertainty following the end of the initial wave of the coronavirus crisis, it is important to look at industries that fare better even during difficult financial periods. One of the prime examples is the Home Improvement sector. The concept is based on the idea that desires to restore will outweigh buying something new, and projects that might otherwise call for a contractor will be handled as a DIY process.

Following a strong end to 2019, Home Depot continued to see visits grow in early Q1. However, the prime period for the sector is generally late Q1 and into Q2 when spring cleaning and DIY projects reach their peak. Looking at March data from 2020, Home Depot saw an earlier rise than normal. Visits the second week of March were 9.3% above the baseline, marking a visit increase of 7.4% year-over-year. And this was following the first week of March where visits were up 7.6% year-over-year. While the third and fourth weeks of March did see declines, they were far more measured than those experienced by other sectors.

Lowe’s also saw strength during this period, outperforming the equivalent weeks in 2019 in all but one week. Early returns showed growth of 6.0% and 4.5% year-over-year for the first two weeks of the month, before visits dropped by 10.0% the third week. Yet, surprisingly, visits rose again the last week of the month growing to 20% above the baseline, a year over year visit increase of 9.6%.

The time at home combined with the timing of the DIY peak season seem to be enabling Home Depot and Lowe’s to weather the storm effectively. While this could come to a close quickly like other industries, there are also strong indications that the industry could do better than most during a period of economic downturn, like the one expected in the months post coronavirus. Accordingly, an industry that was likely to get hit especially hard - their visit peaks come in the middle of the coronavirus peak - could potentially find a softer landing than expected.

Takeaways

Not all industries are impacted equally. Not by the coronavirus or by a potential recession. And there are critical lessons within potential success stories for how other brands could improve performance. From apparel retailers who may look to push athleisure to brands orienting themselves to DIY projects, opportunities are present even in difficult times.
Want to see which other industries could outperform? Visit our blog to find out.

Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter

Great! Prepare your inbox for data-driven insights...
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
How Will Primark’s US Expansion Impact Target?
All Eyes on Eyewear
Northwestern U.S. Grocery Dive
Return of the Lunch: Salad Chains Are Thriving
Retail Media Networks – Off the Beaten Track
Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Discount and Dollar Stores Drive Foot Traffic
Ulta & Lululemon: Discretionary Spending On The Up
The Score After Q1: Sporting Goods Chains
Who Uses NYC Airports: Biting Into The Big Apple’s Main Transport Hubs
Off Price: Strength in The Face of Retail Challenges
Visits Improve for Home Improvement
Walmart, Target & Wholesalers in Q1 2023 – The Return of Mission-Driven Shopping?
Department Store Roundup: Q1 2023
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2023 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index, April 2023 – A Rebound on the Horizon?
How Will Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bankruptcy Impact the Retail Space?
Buffet Restaurants: Filling Up on Foot Traffic
Thrift Stores: Vintage Visits Drive New Age in Apparel
The Windy City: A Hub of Post-Pandemic Opportunity
Diving into Dining Traffic - Q1 2023
Bring On The Joe
A Dollar (or more) For Your Thoughts: Five Below and pOpshelf
Dining Out With The Cheesecake Factory
Retail Foot Traffic Recap – March 2023
Digging Into 2023: McDonald’s and Chipotle Update
Placer.ai Office Index: March 2023 Recap
How Did Key Retail Categories Perform in Q1 2023?
Northeastern USA Grocery Dive
Movie Theaters Storylines for 2023
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Discounters are Evolving
Leveraging Brick-and-Mortar Retail in 2023
America’s Evolving Work Patterns: A Deep-Dive into New York and Chicago
Placer.ai Mall Index March 2023
Tuning Into Record Stores
Five Franchises To Watch in 2023
What’s Next For Domestic Tourism?
It’s Showtime! Movie Theaters in the Spotlight
5 Limited Time Offers (LTOs) Driving Restaurant Traffic
Department Store Deep-Dive: Belk
Regional Grocery Chains Staying Ahead of the Competition
Five Chains that Rightsized for Success
Unlocking the Potential of Offline Retail Media Networks
Dining Out With Darden
What’s in Store for Self-Storage?
Nike & lululemon Update: Strong Performance Amid Expansion Plans
Many Ways to Win: Midwest Grocery Deep Dive
Retail, Reinvented: The Rise of the Pop-Up Shop
Navigating a New Normal in Business Travel & Commutes
Placer.ai Office Index: February 2023 Recap
Retail Categories Staying Strong in Volatile Environment
Ulta Beauty: Poised for Success into 2023
Placer.ai Mall Index February 2023: Reasons for Continued Optimism
Catching Up With DICK’s & Hibbett
The Miami-Dade Arena: An Advertising Slam Dunk
Car Washes Revving Up Visits
Tuesday Morning and Sunrises in Home Furnishing
Dining & Valentine’s Day Recap
2023: The Year of the Discount Store
Aldi’s Success Highlights Growing Demand for Value Groceries
5 Retail & Service Categories Holding onto Pandemic Gains in 2023
Visitor Insights from Super Bowl 2023
2023 First Look: Home Improvement Update
How Are Target, Walmart, and Wholesale Clubs Faring in 2023?
Department Store Deep-Dive: Nordstrom
Off-Price: Taking Off in Uncertain Times
Checking in On Middle-Class Hubs
Who Attends the Super Bowl?
Placer.ai Office Index: January 2023 Recap
Focusing On Fitness: Q4 and January Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: January 2023 – Returning Mall Normalcy?
Location Intelligence Insights Into Concert Attendance
Winning Dining Strategies for 2023
In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East
Location Intelligence Breakdown: Coffee Caps-Off 2022
Digitally Native Brands Lean Into Brick & Mortar
Washington, D.C. Population Changes & Migration Trends
A Location Intelligence Perspective on Macy’s Rightsizing
Amazon-Powered Shopping: The Future of Brick-and-Mortar Grocery?
Cold Weather, Hot Visits: Diving into Winter Resorts
Wawa and 7-Eleven: Leaning Into the “Slurpee Effect”
2022 and Beyond: Catching Up With McDonald’s & Chipotle
Let’s Have Some Fun! Going Out Is In
Placer.ai’s Q4 2022 Quarterly Index
Placer.ai Adds Industry Executives to Leadership Team To Drive Company's Next Phase of Growth
5 Emerging Retail Formats: 2023’s Brick-and-Mortar Evolution
Grocery Update: Zooming in on the Lone Star State
2022 Office Recap: The Year of the TGIF Work Week
What Lies Ahead for Brick-and-Mortar Luxury in 2023
Placer.ai Mall Indexes: December 2022 Recap
Looking Back on 2022’s Holiday Shopping Season
Post-Pandemic Migration Trends in New York
Top Retailers for 2023
The Live Sports Advertising Opportunity
Domestic Migration to the Mountain States: Small Shifts with Big Implications
New Year, New Food: 5 Dining Trends For 2023
Announcing Placer.ai’s COVID RECOVERY DASHBOARD
This is Why Shop-in-Shops Are Everywhere
Super Saturday 2022 Recap
The San Francisco Shift
Grocery Year-End Update: Publix in the Spotlight